Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.1#328
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#306
Pace62.2#348
Improvement-3.7#352

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#329
First Shot-6.3#335
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#156
Layup/Dunks-1.0#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#340
Freethrows-4.5#356
Improvement+0.6#120

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#313
First Shot-2.2#249
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#302
Layups/Dunks-3.5#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#48
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows-2.1#304
Improvement-4.3#359
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 15.2% 41.0% 14.6%
.500 or above in Conference 57.3% 72.8% 57.0%
Conference Champion 4.6% 11.4% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 7.7% 4.1% 7.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 2.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 410 - 911 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 58 @Northwestern L 47-70 3%     0 - 1 -10.7 -20.1 +8.6
  Thu, Nov 6 263 @Loyola Chicago W 73-65 24%     1 - 1 +5.5 +0.5 +5.3
  Wed, Nov 12 339 @Canisius L 55-58 42%     1 - 2 -11.1 -12.0 +0.5
  Sat, Nov 15 359 Morgan St. W 86-72 76%     2 - 2 -3.6 +6.4 -9.6
  Thu, Nov 20 106 @Miami (OH) L 71-76 7%     2 - 3 +1.9 +5.3 -3.7
  Sun, Nov 23 159 @Marshall L 60-69 11%     2 - 4 -5.9 -5.1 -1.8
  Sun, Nov 30 63 @West Virginia L 38-70 3%     2 - 5 -20.4 -22.0 -3.4
  Fri, Dec 5 320 @Lafayette L 71-79 36%     2 - 6 -14.4 +3.5 -18.7
  Sat, Dec 13 128 @Davidson L 47-80 9%     2 - 7 -27.9 -14.3 -19.8
  Wed, Dec 17 68 @Syracuse L 58-79 2%    
  Sat, Dec 20 356 Binghamton W 70-63 74%    
  Fri, Jan 2 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-67 77%    
  Sun, Jan 4 307 Le Moyne W 73-72 54%    
  Thu, Jan 8 213 @LIU Brooklyn L 65-75 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 301 @Wagner L 65-70 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 340 Stonehill W 67-63 65%    
  Mon, Jan 19 241 Central Connecticut St. L 64-66 41%    
  Fri, Jan 23 337 @New Haven L 63-65 42%    
  Sun, Jan 25 350 Chicago St. W 73-68 69%    
  Thu, Jan 29 337 New Haven W 66-62 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 350 @Chicago St. L 70-71 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 363 St. Francis (PA) W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-70 56%    
  Thu, Feb 19 301 Wagner W 68-67 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 213 LIU Brooklyn L 68-72 37%    
  Thu, Feb 26 241 @Central Connecticut St. L 61-69 23%    
  Sat, Feb 28 340 @Stonehill L 64-66 44%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 3.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.2 4.2 0.6 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 6.5 5.0 0.7 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.7 5.5 1.0 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.9 5.6 1.3 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.9 4.6 1.4 0.1 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 2.9 1.0 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.8 8.2 11.9 14.4 15.3 14.1 11.5 8.0 4.9 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 96.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 83.7% 0.7    0.5 0.1
13-3 64.2% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-4 30.7% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-5 6.3% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.3% 0.3
14-2 0.8% 0.8
13-3 2.3% 2.3
12-4 4.9% 4.9
11-5 8.0% 8.0
10-6 11.5% 11.5
9-7 14.1% 14.1
8-8 15.3% 15.3
7-9 14.4% 14.4
6-10 11.9% 11.9
5-11 8.2% 8.2
4-12 4.8% 4.8
3-13 2.1% 2.1
2-14 0.9% 0.9
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%