Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#310
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#310
Pace71.4#133
Improvement-3.1#345

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#253
First Shot-2.4#245
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#222
Layup/Dunks-2.9#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#330
Freethrows+5.9#2
Improvement+0.1#172

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#336
First Shot-6.2#349
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#113
Layups/Dunks-2.0#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#354
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement-3.2#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 2.8% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 7.7% 25.0% 7.4%
.500 or above in Conference 22.9% 36.0% 22.7%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.6% 6.2% 13.7%
First Four0.8% 1.7% 0.8%
First Round0.8% 1.7% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 1.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 410 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 107 @Pittsburgh L 60-78 9%     0 - 1 -11.2 -11.3 +0.2
  Wed, Nov 12 183 James Madison W 82-72 36%     1 - 1 +5.4 +4.3 +1.2
  Sat, Nov 15 356 Binghamton W 90-82 80%     2 - 1 -9.2 +3.4 -13.0
  Tue, Nov 18 343 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82-83 2OT 73%     2 - 2 -15.6 -7.2 -8.2
  Sun, Nov 23 138 @Columbia L 70-95 12%     2 - 3 -20.5 -2.9 -16.7
  Fri, Nov 28 164 Siena L 63-70 22%     2 - 4 -7.3 -6.3 -1.2
  Sat, Nov 29 336 Maine W 65-61 59%     3 - 4 -6.8 -2.5 -3.9
  Sun, Nov 30 248 @American L 66-92 27%     3 - 5 -27.9 -8.8 -18.3
  Sat, Dec 6 359 @Morgan St. W 84-80 63%     4 - 5 -7.6 -0.8 -7.1
  Sat, Dec 13 348 Delaware St. L 76-81 74%     4 - 6 -20.1 +2.6 -22.9
  Wed, Dec 17 51 @Wake Forest L 67-89 2%    
  Sat, Dec 20 349 @NC Central W 73-72 54%    
  Wed, Dec 31 112 Winthrop L 76-85 20%    
  Sat, Jan 3 95 @High Point L 73-90 6%    
  Wed, Jan 7 227 @UNC Asheville L 72-80 24%    
  Sat, Jan 10 260 Presbyterian W 69-68 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 267 @Radford L 77-83 30%    
  Wed, Jan 21 357 Gardner-Webb W 84-75 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 266 Charleston Southern W 77-76 51%    
  Thu, Jan 29 261 @South Carolina Upstate L 72-78 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 95 High Point L 76-87 17%    
  Wed, Feb 4 357 @Gardner-Webb W 81-78 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 112 @Winthrop L 73-88 9%    
  Thu, Feb 12 227 UNC Asheville L 75-77 44%    
  Sat, Feb 14 261 South Carolina Upstate W 76-75 51%    
  Thu, Feb 19 260 @Presbyterian L 65-71 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 266 @Charleston Southern L 73-79 31%    
  Sat, Feb 28 267 Radford W 81-80 51%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.6 5.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.3 7.3 3.5 0.4 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.2 8.5 4.1 0.5 0.0 17.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 5.4 8.9 4.3 0.4 0.0 20.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 5.9 7.4 3.1 0.3 18.6 8th
9th 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.2 0.7 0.0 7.3 9th
Total 0.3 1.5 4.6 9.0 13.9 16.5 16.6 14.6 10.4 6.4 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 91.7% 0.0    0.0
13-3 55.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 24.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 6.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.6% 11.3% 11.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-5 1.7% 5.5% 5.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.6
10-6 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.5
9-7 6.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.3
8-8 10.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.2
7-9 14.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.4
6-10 16.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 16.5
5-11 16.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 16.4
4-12 13.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.9
3-13 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
2-14 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
1-15 1.5% 1.5
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%