Le Moyne
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.4 #274
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #246
Pace 70.9 #125
Improvement +2.6 #72

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #234 C C- D B- C+
Defense #294 C D+ D+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #172 1.16 #170 +0.2 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #254 0.68 #294 -2.0 #282
Three Pointers 44% #117 1.02 #182 +1.8 #120
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #176 -0.1 #176
Freethrows 0.34 #82 73% #163 0.25 #87
Second Chance 27.3% #272 1.08 #125 0.30 #231
Turnovers 18.6% #315
Total Offense -2.4 #234

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #184 1.08 #83 +1.4 #129
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #244 0.58 #6 +2.5 #20
Three Pointers 43% #118 1.13 #320 -3.5 #315
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #167 +0.3 #168
Freethrows 0.31 #213 74% #267 0.23 #243
Second Chance 33.2% #288 1.11 #277 0.37 #294
Turnovers 14.6% #293
Total Defense -4.0 #294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #121 0.7% #224
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.1% #193 -1.4% #159
Possession Length 16.7 #110 16.8 #92
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #194 0.20 #264
Improvement -2.1 #292 +4.6 #9

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 86.8% 95.8% 83.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 38.4% 68.3% 25.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Away) - 29.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 415 - 716 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 79 @Xavier L 69 - 74 7% -4  0 - 1 +5 +3 A+ F F +3 C- A- A-
 Sun, Nov 9 147 @Bowling Green L 60 - 83 17% -6  0 - 2 -19 -11 D+ C- F -8 C- A+ F
 Thu, Nov 13 170 @Massachusetts L 80 - 94 21% -11  0 - 3 -12 +2 C- C- B+ -13 F F+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 349 Niagara W 74 - 68 80% +4  1 - 3 -9 -2 C+ F F -7 D- C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 271 Fairfield L 83 - 97 61% -12  1 - 4 -23 +3 D A+ F -27 F F+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 316 @Lafayette W 76 - 63 50% +1  2 - 4 +7 +2 D+ A+ F+ +5 B C+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 185 Monmouth W 83 - 79 33% +1  3 - 4 +2 +14 A- B- D -11 A- F F
 Sun, Nov 30 294 Ball St. L 85 - 96 55% -0  3 - 5 -19 +12 A F+ B -31 D+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 362 @Binghamton W 78 - 63 74% +10  4 - 5 +2 +4 B- D D -1 B+ D+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 32 @Texas L 53 - 95 2% -18  4 - 6 -25 -18 F C- D -5 C+ D- A-
 Sat, Dec 20 150 @St. Bonaventure L 81 - 92 17% -1  4 - 7 -7 +10 C- A- C -18 D- D- F+
 Sun, Dec 28 130 @Boston College L 64 - 72 15% -2  4 - 8 -3 -5 C D F +2 D+ A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 84 - 58 67% +9  5 - 8 1 - 0 +15 +10 A B+ F+ +6 A- A- D-
 Sun, Jan 4 306 @Mercyhurst L 60 - 74 46% -8  5 - 9 1 - 1 -19 -7 F C+ C -14 C- F D
 Thu, Jan 8 333 New Haven W 73 - 47 76% +16  6 - 9 2 - 1 +12 +6 B- C A- +9 B+ B C+
 Sat, Jan 10 296 Central Connecticut St. L 59 - 69 66% -6  6 - 10 2 - 2 -21 -22 F D F +1 A C C+
 Sat, Jan 17 358 @Chicago St. W 72 - 57 70% -0  7 - 10 3 - 2 +3 -5 D C C- +8 D+ A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 19 224 LIU Brooklyn W 83 - 77 51% +4  8 - 10 4 - 2 -1 +6 A+ F D -7 B+ F D-
 Fri, Jan 23 324 Wagner W 69 - 67 74% -2  9 - 10 5 - 2 -11 -2 F A C -9 F B B-
 Mon, Jan 26 346 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 87 - 74 60% +13  10 - 10 6 - 2 +4 +14 A+ F+ D+ -9 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 224 @LIU Brooklyn L 73 - 79 30%
 Sat, Jan 31 334 Stonehill W 73 - 65 76%
 Thu, Feb 5 324 @Wagner W 75 - 74 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 355 St. Francis (PA) W 82 - 72 83%
 Thu, Feb 12 306 Mercyhurst W 72 - 67 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 358 Chicago St. W 80 - 69 85%
 Thu, Feb 19 296 @Central Connecticut St. L 74 - 76 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 334 @Stonehill W 70 - 68 56%
 Thu, Feb 26 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 79 - 70 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 333 @New Haven W 69 - 68 56%
Totals 16 - 14 12 - 6 -6 -2 C C- D -4 C D+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 5.3 12.4 12.8 6.1 1.2 38.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 8.8 16.4 10.4 2.9 0.2 39.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.8 6.4 2.3 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.2 1.0 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.3 8.8 16.9 24.0 22.8 15.7 6.3 1.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
15-1 97.3% 6.1    5.4 0.7
14-2 81.7% 12.8    9.1 3.7 0.0
13-3 54.1% 12.4    5.8 5.9 0.7 0.0
12-4 22.0% 5.3    1.2 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
11-5 3.8% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 38.4% 38.4 22.7 13.1 2.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.2% 1.2
15-1 6.3% 6.3
14-2 15.7% 15.7
13-3 22.8% 22.8
12-4 24.0% 24.0
11-5 16.9% 16.9
10-6 8.8% 8.8
9-7 3.3% 3.3
8-8 0.9% 0.9
7-9 0.2% 0.2
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2%