Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.1 #124
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 #143
Pace 71.6 #104
Improvement -3.3 #322

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #116 C- C+ B B B-
Defense #166 C C C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #164 1.06 #293 -1.7 #241
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #315 0.63 #339 -3.4 #332
Three Pointers 47% #62 1.02 #177 +3.3 #78
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #233 -1.8 #233
Freethrows 0.34 #60 74% #144 0.25 #64
Second Chance 34.1% #83 1.05 #162 0.36 #96
Turnovers 14.4% #67
Total Offense +2.1 #116

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #220 1.13 #139 +1.3 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #234 0.89 #343 -0.5 #222
Three Pointers 44% #91 1.00 #151 -1.1 #227
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #190 -0.3 #192
Freethrows 0.32 #247 74% #250 0.24 #265
Second Chance 30.2% #163 1.10 #264 0.33 #224
Turnovers 16.5% #178
Total Defense +0.0 #166

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #67 0.4% #199
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.2% #266 0.2% #189
Possession Length 16.9 #129 17.2 #152
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #215 0.15 #93
Improvement -4.4 #353 +1.0 #123

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.0% 28.4% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 40.4% 45.7% 22.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round27.0% 28.4% 22.2%
Second Round1.5% 1.5% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 76.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 35 - 25 - 7
Quad 415 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 186 Queens W 81 - 74 65% +2  1 - 0 +5 +1 F A+ C+ +4 A- D A+
 Fri, Nov 7 87 @George Mason L 90 - 96 24% -0  1 - 1 +4 +13 B F A+ -9 F B- B+
 Tue, Nov 11 237 @Coastal Carolina L 66 - 72 63% -7  1 - 2 -7 -7 D- F+ C +0 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 154 Mercer W 105 - 69 67% +16  2 - 2 +33 +15 B B A- +14 A B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 19 @Arkansas L 83 - 84 6% -1  2 - 3 +19 +16 A- A A- +3 A- D+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 336 @Jackson St. W 80 - 62 83% +8  3 - 3 +10 +10 C+ C+ B+ +1 D- C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 13 @Nebraska L 73 - 80 4% -2  3 - 4 +15 +13 A B- A +2 A B F
 Sat, Nov 29 359 South Carolina St. W 101 - 79 96% +14  4 - 4 +4 +16 B+ A+ F+ -12 F D D
 Tue, Dec 2 224 @LIU Brooklyn W 94 - 92 OT 61% +4  5 - 4 +1 +14 F+ A+ A -12 D- F+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 237 Coastal Carolina L 84 - 88 81% +1  5 - 5 -11 +9 D A+ C- -21 F D- D-
 Thu, Dec 18 290 @North Dakota L 88 - 90 74% +2  5 - 6 -6 +12 B B+ A -19 D+ F F
 Sun, Dec 28 15 @Texas Tech L 57 - 87 5% -26  5 - 7 -9 -8 F D F+ -1 C- C A+
 Wed, Dec 31 261 @Longwood L 70 - 82 67% -7  5 - 8 0 - 1 -14 -2 F C+ A+ -13 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 77 97% -5  6 - 8 1 - 1 -10 +8 C F B -18 F A- F
 Wed, Jan 7 230 Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 81% -2  7 - 8 2 - 1 -3 -2 D C+ D -1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 307 @South Carolina Upstate W 71 - 50 77% +15  8 - 8 3 - 1 +16 +1 C C D- +16 A+ C B+
 Wed, Jan 14 96 High Point W 92 - 75 48% +15  9 - 8 4 - 1 +20 +17 B A+ A+ +3 B A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 203 @UNC Asheville W 69 - 67 57% +6  10 - 8 5 - 1 +2 -3 F C- F +5 A+ B+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 255 Radford W 76 - 75 83% -2  11 - 8 6 - 1 -7 -2 B- F+ C -5 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 268 @Presbyterian W 82 - 72 69% +5  12 - 8 7 - 1 +7 +7 F B A+ +0 B C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 203 UNC Asheville W 79 - 71 77%
 Wed, Feb 4 255 @Radford W 85 - 81 66%
 Sat, Feb 7 261 Longwood W 83 - 73 84%
 Thu, Feb 12 363 @Gardner-Webb W 88 - 71 94%
 Thu, Feb 19 307 South Carolina Upstate W 82 - 68 90%
 Sat, Feb 21 96 @High Point L 79 - 85 27%
 Thu, Feb 26 230 @Charleston Southern W 81 - 78 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 268 Presbyterian W 78 - 67 85%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 3 +2 +2 C- C+ B +0 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.6 11.2 19.7 6.6 40.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 9.1 20.0 21.1 5.5 57.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.9 9.9 22.7 32.3 25.2 6.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 6.6    6.6
14-2 78.3% 19.7    11.1 8.6
13-3 34.7% 11.2    4.0 7.2 0.0
12-4 11.5% 2.6    0.5 1.9 0.2
11-5 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 40.4% 40.4 22.3 17.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 6.6% 38.7% 38.7% 12.5 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.1 4.1
14-2 25.2% 32.6% 32.6% 13.3 0.7 4.4 2.9 0.2 17.0
13-3 32.3% 27.3% 27.3% 13.7 0.2 3.0 4.7 0.8 23.4
12-4 22.7% 22.7% 22.7% 14.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.1 0.0 17.5
11-5 9.9% 18.4% 18.4% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 8.1
10-6 2.9% 12.7% 12.7% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.5
9-7 0.5% 11.0% 11.0% 15.0 0.1 0.4
8-8 0.0% 0.0
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 13.6 73.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 12.5 3.5 49.6 44.1 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%