Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#112
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#174
Pace73.4#75
Improvement-2.6#329

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#71
First Shot+2.7#103
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#64
Layup/Dunks-1.5#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#22
Freethrows-0.9#237
Improvement+1.8#57

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#210
First Shot-0.6#202
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#233
Layups/Dunks+0.5#156
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#252
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#209
Freethrows+0.1#175
Improvement-4.5#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.4% 34.2% 28.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 96.9% 97.8% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 98.4% 97.1%
Conference Champion 41.4% 42.5% 34.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round33.3% 34.1% 28.3%
Second Round3.2% 3.4% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 87.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 34 - 24 - 7
Quad 416 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 191 Queens W 81-74 70%     1 - 0 +5.1 +0.1 +4.8
  Fri, Nov 7 75 @George Mason L 90-96 24%     1 - 1 +4.7 +15.0 -9.8
  Tue, Nov 11 243 @Coastal Carolina L 66-72 69%     1 - 2 -7.7 -7.1 -0.5
  Sat, Nov 15 169 Mercer W 105-69 76%     2 - 2 +32.1 +15.1 +12.1
  Tue, Nov 18 20 @Arkansas L 83-84 9%     2 - 3 +17.6 +16.7 +0.9
  Sun, Nov 23 316 @Jackson St. W 80-62 82%     3 - 3 +11.9 +14.2 -0.7
  Tue, Nov 25 26 @Nebraska L 73-80 10%     3 - 4 +10.9 +9.2 +1.6
  Sat, Nov 29 360 South Carolina St. W 101-79 96%     4 - 4 +4.4 +16.1 -12.8
  Tue, Dec 2 213 @LIU Brooklyn W 94-92 OT 64%     5 - 4 +1.7 +13.6 -12.0
  Sat, Dec 6 243 Coastal Carolina L 84-88 85%     5 - 5 -11.7 +9.6 -21.3
  Thu, Dec 18 342 @North Dakota W 84-72 87%    
  Sun, Dec 28 24 @Texas Tech L 72-86 9%    
  Wed, Dec 31 310 @Longwood W 85-76 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 357 Gardner-Webb W 93-72 97%    
  Wed, Jan 7 266 Charleston Southern W 85-73 87%    
  Sat, Jan 10 261 @South Carolina Upstate W 81-75 71%    
  Wed, Jan 14 95 High Point W 85-84 54%    
  Sat, Jan 17 227 @UNC Asheville W 81-77 65%    
  Wed, Jan 21 267 Radford W 89-77 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 260 @Presbyterian W 74-68 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 227 UNC Asheville W 84-74 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 267 @Radford W 86-80 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 310 Longwood W 88-73 91%    
  Thu, Feb 12 357 @Gardner-Webb W 90-75 91%    
  Thu, Feb 19 261 South Carolina Upstate W 84-72 86%    
  Sat, Feb 21 95 @High Point L 82-87 33%    
  Thu, Feb 26 266 @Charleston Southern W 82-76 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 260 Presbyterian W 77-65 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.7 10.6 13.7 8.7 2.6 41.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.4 10.5 13.3 9.0 2.6 40.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.3 9.6 14.7 18.8 19.7 16.3 8.7 2.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
15-1 100.0% 8.7    7.9 0.8
14-2 83.8% 13.7    9.9 3.7 0.0
13-3 54.0% 10.6    5.9 4.6 0.2
12-4 25.2% 4.7    1.9 2.4 0.5 0.0
11-5 7.3% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
10-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 41.4% 41.4 28.3 12.0 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.6% 58.7% 58.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.1
15-1 8.7% 50.9% 50.9% 12.7 0.1 1.7 2.1 0.5 4.3
14-2 16.3% 43.4% 43.4% 13.2 0.0 1.2 3.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.2
13-3 19.7% 38.0% 38.0% 13.5 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 12.2
12-4 18.8% 31.3% 31.3% 13.9 0.1 1.6 3.1 1.0 0.0 12.9
11-5 14.7% 25.4% 25.4% 14.2 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.2 0.1 11.0
10-6 9.6% 20.9% 20.9% 14.5 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.1 7.6
9-7 5.3% 16.6% 16.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 4.4
8-8 2.6% 10.2% 10.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 2.4
7-9 1.2% 9.9% 9.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.0
6-10 0.4% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-11 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 33.4% 33.4% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.2 11.5 11.7 4.7 0.7 66.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.0 7.5 8.8 60.0 23.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%