Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#154
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#214
Pace63.1#333
Improvement+0.5#134

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#313
First Shot-5.0#319
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#175
Layup/Dunks-2.4#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#234
Freethrows-5.2#361
Improvement+0.7#104

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#47
First Shot+6.0#32
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#264
Layups/Dunks-0.5#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#7
Freethrows-2.3#308
Improvement-0.3#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 25.3% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 92.0% 94.1% 81.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 94.6% 82.6%
Conference Champion 32.3% 35.5% 16.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.2% 1.1% 1.8%
First Round23.4% 24.9% 16.3%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 33 - 5
Quad 417 - 520 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 85 @Xavier L 62-66 18%     0 - 1 +5.7 -3.2 +8.7
  Sun, Nov 9 299 @Dartmouth W 75-56 67%     1 - 1 +14.3 -2.1 +15.7
  Sun, Nov 16 179 Harvard L 54-56 66%     1 - 2 -6.4 -15.4 +8.7
  Fri, Nov 21 346 Army W 76-65 90%     2 - 2 -3.6 -1.0 -2.0
  Tue, Nov 25 312 Lehigh W 78-55 85%     3 - 2 +11.9 +3.7 +8.9
  Fri, Dec 5 297 Mount St. Mary's W 69-59 83%    
  Sun, Dec 7 318 Manhattan W 75-64 85%    
  Sat, Dec 13 302 @Bryant W 66-61 66%    
  Tue, Dec 16 104 @Georgia Tech L 59-67 24%    
  Sun, Dec 21 251 Stony Brook W 67-59 76%    
  Mon, Dec 29 193 @Quinnipiac L 67-68 46%    
  Fri, Jan 2 295 @St. Peter's W 64-60 65%    
  Sun, Jan 4 167 Iona W 72-68 64%    
  Fri, Jan 9 261 @Sacred Heart W 71-69 58%    
  Sun, Jan 11 343 @Rider W 67-59 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 288 Fairfield W 72-62 81%    
  Mon, Jan 19 255 Merrimack W 66-58 76%    
  Thu, Jan 22 177 @Siena L 62-64 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 193 Quinnipiac W 70-65 66%    
  Fri, Jan 30 348 @Canisius W 66-58 77%    
  Sun, Feb 1 333 @Niagara W 64-57 74%    
  Thu, Feb 5 343 Rider W 70-56 89%    
  Sat, Feb 7 288 @Fairfield W 69-65 63%    
  Thu, Feb 12 255 @Merrimack W 63-61 56%    
  Sun, Feb 15 177 Siena W 65-61 64%    
  Fri, Feb 20 318 @Manhattan W 72-67 67%    
  Sun, Feb 22 261 Sacred Heart W 74-66 76%    
  Sun, Mar 1 295 St. Peter's W 67-57 81%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.4 7.8 8.2 6.4 3.0 0.7 32.3 1st
2nd 0.3 1.8 5.4 6.4 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.0 4.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.8 3.0 1.0 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.0 2.3 0.8 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.4 5.3 7.3 9.9 12.0 12.8 13.0 12.6 9.5 6.5 3.0 0.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 99.4% 3.0    2.9 0.1
18-2 97.5% 6.4    5.8 0.6 0.0
17-3 86.9% 8.2    6.6 1.6 0.1
16-4 62.2% 7.8    4.6 2.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 34.0% 4.4    1.6 2.0 0.7 0.1
14-6 11.3% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1
13-7 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.3% 32.3 22.5 7.7 1.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 63.1% 63.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
19-1 3.0% 49.2% 49.2% 12.9 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5
18-2 6.5% 45.6% 45.6% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.2 3.6
17-3 9.5% 41.3% 41.3% 13.8 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.0 5.6
16-4 12.6% 31.2% 31.2% 14.2 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.3 0.2 8.6
15-5 13.0% 28.0% 28.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.2 9.4
14-6 12.8% 22.8% 22.8% 14.9 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.6 9.9
13-7 12.0% 18.4% 18.4% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 9.8
12-8 9.9% 13.1% 13.1% 15.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 8.6
11-9 7.3% 9.1% 9.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 6.6
10-10 5.3% 6.1% 6.1% 15.8 0.1 0.3 5.0
9-11 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.2
8-12 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.0
7-13 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.1 7.7 7.2 3.6 76.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.8 3.7 1.9 24.1 42.6 27.8