Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.8 #129
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #163
Pace 66.5 #246
Improvement -0.5 #219

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #292 D C- C- F D
Defense #33 B+ B B+ D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #262 1.12 #229 -2.5 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #90 0.82 #86 +2.6 #60
Three Pointers 39% #214 0.86 #333 -3.8 #303
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #284 -3.7 #286
Freethrows 11.8 #359 77% #49 9.1 #342
Second Chance 26.6% #293 1.14 #76 0.30 #213
Turnovers 17.2% #219
Total Offense -4.4 #292

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.15 #156 +0.4 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #40 0.66 #55 -0.9 #248
Three Pointers 36% #319 0.90 #51 +4.9 #23
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #56 +4.4 #57
Freethrows 20.2 #308 69% #42 13.9 #94
Second Chance 28.0% #93 0.98 #97 0.27 #73
Turnovers 19.5% #48
Total Defense +6.3 #33

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #286 -1.5% #66
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.6% #264 -7.2% #59
Possession Length 17.7 #216 17.1 #150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #259 0.11 #25
Improvement +1.3 #105 -1.8 #298

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.9% 33.9% 26.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.9%
Conference Champion 44.3% 47.5% 23.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round32.9% 33.9% 26.7%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 86.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 6
Quad 418 - 322 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 92 @Xavier L 62 - 66 24% +3  0 - 1 +5 -3 +8
 Sun, Nov 9 204 @Dartmouth W 75 - 56 56% +8  1 - 1 +19 -1 C C- F +19 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 162 Harvard L 54 - 56 69% -1  1 - 2 -5 -14 F F F +8 A+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 330 Army W 76 - 65 92% +4  2 - 2 -3 -1 D+ B- D+ -1 D+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 313 Lehigh W 78 - 55 90% +13  3 - 2 +11 +3 B F A+ +9 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Dec 5 297 Mount St. Mary's W 64 - 56 88% +2  4 - 2 1 - 0 -3 -13 D C+ F +10 A B A+
 Sun, Dec 7 312 Manhattan W 80 - 68 89% +3  5 - 2 2 - 0 +0 -7 F D+ C +6 B- A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 329 @Bryant W 82 - 74 81% +6  6 - 2 +1 +10 A+ D F -9 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 16 111 @Georgia Tech L 76 - 87 31% -8  6 - 3 -4 +10 B- A+ C+ -15 F F A
 Sun, Dec 21 274 Stony Brook W 70 - 51 85% +13  7 - 3 +10 -2 F B- A+ +13 A+ A+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 156 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 64 45% -3  7 - 4 2 - 1 -3 -10 F C F +7 A+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 246 @St. Peter's L 59 - 69 64% -3  7 - 5 2 - 2 -12 -12 F F C+ -0 A F C
 Sun, Jan 4 198 Iona W 83 - 38 75% +21  8 - 5 3 - 2 +40 +8 D+ A+ A+ +31 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 285 @Sacred Heart W 76 - 72 71% -2  9 - 5 4 - 2 -0 +7 C A+ C+ -7 F F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 348 @Rider W 71 - 49 86% +12  10 - 5 5 - 2 +12 +0 C F C +13 A- A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 281 Fairfield W 75 - 63 87%
 Mon, Jan 19 241 Merrimack W 68 - 59 81%
 Thu, Jan 22 177 @Siena W 65 - 64 51%
 Sat, Jan 24 156 Quinnipiac W 71 - 66 67%
 Fri, Jan 30 337 @Canisius W 67 - 57 81%
 Sun, Feb 1 355 @Niagara W 69 - 57 88%
 Thu, Feb 5 348 Rider W 71 - 53 95%
 Sat, Feb 7 281 @Fairfield W 72 - 66 70%
 Thu, Feb 12 241 @Merrimack W 65 - 62 62%
 Sun, Feb 15 177 Siena W 67 - 61 72%
 Fri, Feb 20 312 @Manhattan W 75 - 67 76%
 Sun, Feb 22 285 Sacred Heart W 75 - 63 87%
 Sun, Mar 1 246 St. Peter's W 68 - 58 81%
Totals 20 - 8 15 - 5 +2 -4 D C- C- +6 B+ B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 8.3 15.8 13.6 4.9 44.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 7.6 11.2 5.9 0.8 26.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.5 6.9 2.4 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.1 1.4 0.1 8.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.6 10.8 17.5 22.0 21.8 14.4 4.9 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 4.9    4.7 0.2
17-3 94.4% 13.6    11.2 2.4 0.0
16-4 72.5% 15.8    9.1 6.0 0.8 0.0
15-5 37.8% 8.3    2.6 3.8 1.7 0.2
14-6 9.0% 1.6    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 44.3% 44.3 27.7 12.8 3.1 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 4.9% 46.6% 46.6% 12.3 0.1 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.6
17-3 14.4% 43.8% 43.8% 13.3 0.7 3.4 2.1 0.2 8.1
16-4 21.8% 38.5% 38.5% 13.8 0.2 2.6 4.6 1.0 0.0 13.4
15-5 22.0% 33.0% 33.0% 14.1 0.0 1.3 4.1 1.8 0.0 14.7
14-6 17.5% 27.9% 27.9% 14.4 0.3 2.4 2.0 0.1 12.6
13-7 10.8% 22.7% 22.7% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.2 8.4
12-8 5.6% 17.5% 17.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 4.6
11-9 2.2% 14.8% 14.8% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.8
10-10 0.7% 9.0% 9.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-11 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.9% 32.9% 0.0% 13.9 67.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 12.3 5.5 57.1 34.9 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%