Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.6 #186
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 #195
Pace 73.1 #76
Improvement +0.2 #170

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #188 C+ D- D B C+
Defense #195 B- D+ D B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #167 1.20 #123 +0.9 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #241 0.81 #104 -0.7 #217
Three Pointers 44% #125 1.04 #153 +2.1 #112
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #116 +2.2 #116
Freethrows 18.0 #146 81% #6 14.5 #68
Second Chance 22.4% #353 1.10 #115 0.25 #316
Turnovers 18.7% #304
Total Offense -0.9 #188

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.22 #260 -3.3 #290
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #69 0.77 #204 -1.8 #302
Three Pointers 33% #347 0.82 #9 +7.1 #5
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #112 +2.1 #113
Freethrows 15.1 #75 75% #282 11.3 #268
Second Chance 31.3% #209 1.14 #296 0.36 #271
Turnovers 14.4% #310
Total Defense -0.7 #195

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #132 -0.5% #126
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.4% #130 -3.6% #115
Possession Length 16.6 #116 16.4 #52
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #168 0.20 #263
Improvement -2.6 #324 +2.8 #43

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 15.7% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 57.3% 74.5% 48.3%
.500 or above in Conference 83.4% 93.6% 78.1%
Conference Champion 16.6% 29.9% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round11.8% 15.5% 9.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 34.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 410 - 515 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 77 @Stanford L 68 - 91 13% -11  0 - 1 -13 -3 C- C+ F -8 C B+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 134 @UNLV W 102 - 93 28% +6  1 - 1 +13 +18 A+ C B+ -6 D A F
 Fri, Nov 14 249 Cal Poly W 90 - 82 73% +7  2 - 1 -0 +2 D+ C C -3 C C D-
 Tue, Nov 18 40 @Texas A&M L 81 - 86 6% -10  2 - 2 +11 +15 A+ F B- -5 F A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 220 Lamar L 63 - 68 67% -0  2 - 3 -11 -12 F F F +1 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 135 Oakland L 87 - 95 50% -4  2 - 4 -10 -0 B A- F -9 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 148 North Dakota St. L 72 - 81 53% -3  2 - 5 -11 -3 C+ D- C- -9 B+ F D
 Sat, Dec 6 319 @North Dakota W 79 - 75 68% -1  3 - 5 -2 +3 B B+ F -6 B- F D
 Sat, Dec 20 19 @Louisville L 54 - 94 4% -17  3 - 6 -21 -14 F F F -4 B- F A-
 Thu, Jan 1 296 Northern Arizona W 78 - 64 81% +4  4 - 6 1 - 0 +3 +5 A+ F D- -1 B- D- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 174 Northern Colorado W 88 - 79 59% +9  5 - 6 2 - 0 +5 +4 B F D- -0 A+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 194 @Idaho W 79 - 73 40% +9  6 - 6 3 - 0 +7 +4 B F F +3 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 255 @Eastern Washington L 65 - 66 53% +2  6 - 7 3 - 1 -3 -4 F F D+ +1 C+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 161 @Montana St. L 72 - 76 34%
 Mon, Jan 19 296 @Northern Arizona W 76 - 73 61%
 Thu, Jan 22 197 Weber St. W 80 - 76 63%
 Sat, Jan 24 196 Idaho St. W 77 - 73 64%
 Thu, Jan 29 145 @Portland St. L 72 - 78 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 307 @Sacramento St. W 83 - 79 65%
 Thu, Feb 5 255 Eastern Washington W 83 - 76 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 194 Idaho W 79 - 75 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 161 Montana St. W 75 - 73 56%
 Thu, Feb 19 196 @Idaho St. L 74 - 76 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 197 @Weber St. L 77 - 79 42%
 Thu, Feb 26 307 Sacramento St. W 86 - 76 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 145 Portland St. W 75 - 74 52%
 Mon, Mar 2 174 @Northern Colorado L 76 - 80 37%
Totals 14 - 13 11 - 7 -2 -1 C+ D- D -1 B- D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.3 5.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 16.6 1st
2nd 0.4 3.7 7.8 4.7 1.2 0.1 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.3 8.6 4.2 0.6 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 8.1 4.4 0.4 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 6.0 4.5 0.5 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.4 0.8 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.0 0.7 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.6 9.0 13.5 17.1 17.5 14.9 10.6 6.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
15-3 95.3% 2.4    2.2 0.2
14-4 80.9% 5.1    3.6 1.4 0.1
13-5 49.9% 5.3    2.3 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 16.9% 2.5    0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 9.4 5.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 35.7% 35.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 31.6% 31.6% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-3 2.6% 29.8% 29.8% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.8
14-4 6.3% 27.9% 27.9% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 4.5
13-5 10.6% 18.6% 18.6% 14.1 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 8.6
12-6 14.9% 15.7% 15.7% 14.5 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.1 12.5
11-7 17.5% 11.5% 11.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.2 15.5
10-8 17.1% 9.3% 9.3% 15.2 0.0 1.2 0.4 15.5
9-9 13.5% 6.4% 6.4% 15.8 0.2 0.7 12.7
8-10 9.0% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.7
7-11 4.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.5
6-12 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.1
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 14.6 87.9 0.0%