Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#191
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#224
Pace73.9#86
Improvement-1.0#252

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#149
First Shot+3.0#89
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#330
Layup/Dunks+0.8#150
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#160
Freethrows+2.2#63
Improvement-1.6#318

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#235
First Shot-3.6#299
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#103
Layups/Dunks-8.2#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#58
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement+0.6#124
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 13.5% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 46.0% 57.2% 32.2%
.500 or above in Conference 64.8% 70.1% 58.2%
Conference Champion 13.8% 16.9% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 5.1% 9.4%
First Four1.3% 1.0% 1.7%
First Round10.6% 13.0% 7.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 49 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 95 @Stanford L 68-91 16%     0 - 1 -14.4 -3.9 -9.1
  Tue, Nov 11 129 @UNLV W 102-93 25%     1 - 1 +14.1 +16.3 -3.4
  Fri, Nov 14 245 Cal Poly W 90-82 71%     2 - 1 +0.2 +1.8 -2.6
  Tue, Nov 18 60 @Texas A&M L 81-86 10%     2 - 2 +7.3 +13.2 -5.9
  Sun, Nov 23 199 Lamar L 63-68 63%     2 - 3 -10.4 -11.6 +1.4
  Tue, Nov 25 138 Oakland L 87-95 49%     2 - 4 -9.6 +1.3 -10.2
  Wed, Dec 3 155 North Dakota St. W 77-76 55%    
  Sat, Dec 6 319 @North Dakota W 79-75 63%    
  Sat, Dec 20 9 @Louisville L 69-93 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 249 Northern Arizona W 80-74 70%    
  Sat, Jan 3 145 Northern Colorado W 79-78 54%    
  Thu, Jan 8 168 @Idaho L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 240 @Eastern Washington L 79-80 49%    
  Sat, Jan 17 186 @Montana St. L 72-75 39%    
  Mon, Jan 19 249 @Northern Arizona L 77-78 50%    
  Thu, Jan 22 229 Weber St. W 82-77 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 230 Idaho St. W 75-70 68%    
  Thu, Jan 29 156 @Portland St. L 75-80 34%    
  Sat, Jan 31 272 @Sacramento St. W 80-79 54%    
  Thu, Feb 5 240 Eastern Washington W 83-77 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 168 Idaho W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Feb 14 186 Montana St. W 75-72 60%    
  Thu, Feb 19 230 @Idaho St. L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 229 @Weber St. L 79-80 47%    
  Thu, Feb 26 272 Sacramento St. W 83-76 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 156 Portland St. W 78-77 54%    
  Mon, Mar 2 145 @Northern Colorado L 76-81 33%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.6 3.6 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 13.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.0 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.6 5.4 3.1 0.8 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.3 3.2 6.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 5.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.3 2.8 0.2 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 6.5 8.7 11.6 12.3 12.9 12.0 10.0 7.8 4.9 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 98.1% 1.4    1.3 0.1
15-3 92.8% 2.8    2.4 0.4
14-4 73.6% 3.6    2.3 1.2 0.2
13-5 45.8% 3.6    1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 15.8% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.8% 13.8 8.5 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 52.4% 52.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 41.5% 41.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.4% 43.5% 43.5% 13.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-3 3.0% 34.4% 34.4% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-4 4.9% 26.9% 26.9% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.6
13-5 7.8% 22.7% 22.7% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.0 6.0
12-6 10.0% 17.7% 17.7% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 8.2
11-7 12.0% 12.7% 12.7% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.2 10.5
10-8 12.9% 9.2% 9.2% 15.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 11.7
9-9 12.3% 7.5% 7.5% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 11.4
8-10 11.6% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.1
7-11 8.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 8.5
6-12 6.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 6.4
5-13 4.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.2
4-14 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-15 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.3 3.6 2.3 88.8 0.0%