Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -16.3 #363
Expected Predictive Rating -18.6 #357
Pace 72.0 #99
Improvement -2.7 #306

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #345 F F F A- F
Defense #361 F F C- F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.10 #256 -3.9 #308
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #24 0.71 #231 +3.3 #43
Three Pointers 35% #296 0.81 #354 -6.4 #342
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #349 -7.0 #349
Freethrows 20.3 #45 75% #87 15.3 #37
Second Chance 29.8% #216 0.78 #363 0.23 #339
Turnovers 19.4% #330
Total Offense -7.7 #345

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #25 1.38 #361 -9.3 #364
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #352 0.77 #207 +2.5 #25
Three Pointers 41% #198 1.10 #291 -1.5 #249
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #360 -8.3 #360
Freethrows 26.1 #364 71% #119 18.6 #2
Second Chance 33.4% #282 1.33 #363 0.44 #359
Turnovers 15.5% #242
Total Defense -8.6 #361

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #343 2.9% #360
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.6% #339 13.0% #354
Possession Length 18.0 #243 16.2 #30
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #234 0.27 #361
Improvement -2.5 #322 -0.1 #195

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.5% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 17.4% 32.7% 10.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 26.2% 11.1% 32.7%
First Four1.9% 2.5% 1.6%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Away) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 46 - 166 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 100 @Georgetown L 70 - 87 2% -10  0 - 1 -9 -5 D- D F -3 B D D-
 Tue, Nov 11 277 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 79 - 81 26% -6  0 - 2 -12 -2 F C+ C+ -10 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 308 @Mercyhurst L 72 - 86 16% -13  0 - 3 -20 +1 F A+ F -21 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 302 N.C. A&T L 73 - 79 31% -4  0 - 4 -17 -4 D F A+ -13 F F C+
 Fri, Nov 21 244 @Old Dominion L 56 - 88 9% -18  0 - 5 -34 -14 F F D -21 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 238 Drexel L 66 - 71 20% -7  0 - 6 -12 -4 C- F A+ -9 D- A A+
 Sat, Dec 6 270 Longwood L 80 - 84 25% -1  0 - 7 -13 -3 D- F D- -10 D- F C+
 Tue, Dec 9 98 @DePaul L 49 - 92 2% -24  0 - 8 -35 -15 F F F -22 F F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 355 Niagara W 81 - 73 51% +4  1 - 8 -9 +3 A+ A- F -11 D- F F
 Fri, Dec 19 81 @California L 50 - 97 2% -22  1 - 9 -37 -18 F F F -20 F F C-
 Sun, Dec 21 103 @San Francisco L 64 - 94 2% -13  1 - 10 -22 -2 C C F -21 C- F C-
 Tue, Dec 23 130 @Loyola Marymount L 56 - 83 4% -16  1 - 11 -22 -12 F A- F -10 F F B
 Sat, Jan 3 324 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 49 - 66 19% -6  1 - 12 0 - 1 -24 -22 F F F -2 B F F
 Sat, Jan 10 361 South Carolina St. W 72 - 67 58% -2  2 - 12 1 - 1 -13 -5 F F A -8 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 338 NC Central L 78 - 89 42% -4  2 - 13 1 - 2 -25 -0 D F C+ -25 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 356 @Delaware St. L 67 - 73 30%
 Sat, Jan 24 275 @Howard L 67 - 80 12%
 Mon, Jan 26 289 @Norfolk St. L 66 - 78 14%
 Sat, Jan 31 364 @Coppin St. W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 324 Maryland Eastern Shore L 68 - 71 38%
 Sat, Feb 14 361 @South Carolina St. L 74 - 78 36%
 Mon, Feb 16 338 @NC Central L 71 - 79 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 356 Delaware St. W 71 - 70 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 275 Howard L 70 - 77 27%
 Mon, Mar 2 289 Norfolk St. L 69 - 75 29%
 Thu, Mar 5 364 Coppin St. W 79 - 72 73%
Totals 6 - 20 5 - 9 -16 -8 F F F -9 F F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.6 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 4.5 1.9 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.4 4.1 10.0 4.6 0.2 19.4 5th
6th 0.7 7.4 12.9 5.6 0.4 27.0 6th
7th 0.9 7.9 12.0 4.4 0.3 25.5 7th
8th 1.3 5.4 5.8 1.8 0.1 14.4 8th
Total 1.3 6.3 14.4 21.6 21.5 17.5 10.3 4.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-3 92.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-4 51.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
9-5 12.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
10-4 0.4% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-5 1.8% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.1 1.6
8-6 4.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.2 4.6
7-7 10.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.4 9.9
6-8 17.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.4 17.0
5-9 21.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 21.2
4-10 21.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 21.4
3-11 14.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.3
2-12 6.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.3
1-13 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
0-14
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 16.0 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%