Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.3#333
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#319
Pace63.3#327
Improvement-0.8#246

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#346
First Shot-3.4#272
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#345
Layup/Dunks-2.5#265
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#215
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement-0.4#226

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#295
First Shot-2.7#268
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#258
Layups/Dunks+1.9#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#343
Freethrows-0.1#199
Improvement-0.4#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 10.0% 13.9% 4.6%
.500 or above in Conference 19.8% 23.5% 14.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 21.6% 17.7% 26.9%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 57.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 410 - 1210 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 126 @Duquesne L 63-83 8%     0 - 1 -14.5 -7.9 -6.3
  Sat, Nov 8 352 @Binghamton W 67-59 47%     1 - 1 -1.4 -4.0 +3.4
  Mon, Nov 10 357 Delaware St. W 68-57 72%     2 - 1 -5.4 +1.0 -4.4
  Mon, Nov 17 336 @Le Moyne L 68-74 40%     2 - 2 -13.7 -7.8 -6.1
  Fri, Nov 21 2 @Duke L 42-100 0.4%    2 - 3 -32.2 -15.0 -21.9
  Sat, Nov 22 315 Howard L 70-80 42%     2 - 4 -18.3 -10.8 -6.7
  Sat, Nov 29 328 Detroit Mercy W 72-70 58%    
  Fri, Dec 5 177 @Siena L 61-73 13%    
  Sun, Dec 7 295 @St. Peter's L 62-68 29%    
  Sat, Dec 13 360 @Morgan St. W 71-70 52%    
  Mon, Dec 15 53 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58-81 2%    
  Fri, Jan 2 261 Sacred Heart L 73-75 43%    
  Sun, Jan 4 288 Fairfield L 70-71 48%    
  Fri, Jan 9 167 @Iona L 68-80 13%    
  Sun, Jan 11 318 @Manhattan L 71-76 33%    
  Wed, Jan 14 348 @Canisius L 64-66 45%    
  Mon, Jan 19 297 Mount St. Mary's W 68-67 50%    
  Thu, Jan 22 288 @Fairfield L 67-73 28%    
  Sat, Jan 24 261 @Sacred Heart L 70-78 24%    
  Fri, Jan 30 177 Siena L 64-70 30%    
  Sun, Feb 1 154 Marist L 57-64 26%    
  Tue, Feb 3 348 Canisius W 67-63 65%    
  Sat, Feb 7 193 @Quinnipiac L 66-77 16%    
  Fri, Feb 13 318 Manhattan W 74-73 54%    
  Sun, Feb 15 167 Iona L 71-77 29%    
  Fri, Feb 20 297 @Mount St. Mary's L 64-70 31%    
  Sun, Feb 22 343 @Rider L 66-68 43%    
  Fri, Feb 27 193 Quinnipiac L 69-74 31%    
  Sun, Mar 1 255 Merrimack L 64-66 43%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.6 0.2 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.2 3.5 1.0 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.7 1.4 0.1 10.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 12.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.4 5.6 2.5 0.3 14.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.9 5.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 15.4 12th
13th 0.4 1.3 3.0 4.2 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.7 13th
Total 0.4 1.4 3.5 6.5 9.8 11.8 12.8 12.9 11.5 9.6 7.7 5.2 3.4 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 88.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 70.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 33.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.1
16-4 0.2% 8.8% 8.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.5% 4.4% 4.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9
13-7 1.8% 6.9% 6.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
12-8 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.3
11-9 5.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 5.1
10-10 7.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.6
9-11 9.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.6
8-12 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
7-13 12.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.9
6-14 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
5-15 11.8% 11.8
4-16 9.8% 9.8
3-17 6.5% 6.5
2-18 3.5% 3.5
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%