Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.5 #355
Expected Predictive Rating -14.4 #343
Pace 60.1 #362
Improvement -1.3 #255

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #331 D F C F B-
Defense #350 F F D+ D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #100 1.02 #323 -1.2 #227
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #253 0.75 #177 -1.5 #252
Three Pointers 42% #168 0.92 #289 -1.6 #246
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #295 -4.3 #296
Freethrows 12.4 #351 72% #204 8.9 #347
Second Chance 21.6% #357 0.83 #356 0.18 #364
Turnovers 17.0% #208
Total Offense -6.4 #331

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #216 1.19 #223 +0.0 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #212 0.88 #332 -0.7 #229
Three Pointers 43% #113 1.18 #350 -4.8 #344
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #332 -5.5 #332
Freethrows 18.9 #262 78% #347 14.7 #58
Second Chance 35.6% #336 1.16 #310 0.41 #344
Turnovers 15.0% #276
Total Defense -7.1 #350

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #91 0.2% #184
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.5% #325 10.5% #339
Possession Length 20.1 #361 17.5 #219
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #337 0.23 #331
Improvement +2.2 #63 -3.5 #338

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 2.3% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.7% 27.3% 50.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Away) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 47 - 147 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 132 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 6% -17  0 - 1 -15 -10 F F F -5 F C- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 359 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 44% +0  1 - 1 -4 -5 F D- C +2 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 356 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 62% +8  2 - 1 -6 +4 A+ F A+ -8 C- F F
 Mon, Nov 17 295 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 20% -4  2 - 2 -11 -5 C F D+ -6 F A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 7 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  2 - 3 -34 -16 F C- F -23 F F D
 Sat, Nov 22 275 Howard L 70 - 80 25% +4  2 - 4 -17 -8 D B- F -8 D+ D- C
 Sat, Nov 29 273 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 35% -6  2 - 5 -13 -8 D F B -5 A D- D-
 Fri, Dec 5 177 @Siena L 54 - 83 9% -22  2 - 6 0 - 1 -27 -13 F F A+ -16 F D F
 Sun, Dec 7 246 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 14% -13  2 - 7 0 - 2 -30 -22 F F F -12 F F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 363 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 49% -4  2 - 8 -21 -4 F D B -18 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 1% -8  2 - 9 -12 -3 D- D B -13 F B- C
 Fri, Jan 2 285 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 37% +9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -7 -3 A- F C -4 A F A-
 Sun, Jan 4 281 Fairfield L 75 - 83 36% -5  3 - 10 1 - 3 -18 +7 A+ F D+ -26 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 198 @Iona L 53 - 71 10% -16  3 - 11 1 - 4 -17 -10 F F A -10 D+ F D-
 Sun, Jan 11 312 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 23% +1  3 - 12 1 - 5 -15 +3 A+ F C- -19 B F F
 Wed, Jan 14 337 @Canisius L 62 - 67 31%
 Mon, Jan 19 297 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 69 40%
 Thu, Jan 22 281 @Fairfield L 65 - 75 18%
 Sat, Jan 24 285 @Sacred Heart L 67 - 76 19%
 Fri, Jan 30 177 Siena L 61 - 70 20%
 Sun, Feb 1 129 Marist L 57 - 69 12%
 Tue, Feb 3 337 Canisius W 65 - 64 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 156 @Quinnipiac L 62 - 79 6%
 Fri, Feb 13 312 Manhattan L 71 - 73 44%
 Sun, Feb 15 198 Iona L 67 - 75 23%
 Fri, Feb 20 297 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 72 21%
 Sun, Feb 22 348 @Rider L 62 - 66 36%
 Fri, Feb 27 156 Quinnipiac L 65 - 76 16%
 Sun, Mar 1 241 Merrimack L 62 - 68 30%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -14 -6 D F C -7 F F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.8 0.2 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 5.6 7.1 1.9 0.1 16.1 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 6.6 12.7 11.0 3.2 0.2 0.0 35.3 12th
13th 2.7 7.6 10.0 6.5 1.9 0.2 28.9 13th
Total 2.8 9.2 16.6 20.6 19.2 14.7 9.3 4.8 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
9-11 1.9% 1.9
8-12 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
7-13 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.3
6-14 14.7% 14.7
5-15 19.2% 19.2
4-16 20.6% 20.6
3-17 16.6% 16.6
2-18 9.2% 9.2
1-19 2.8% 2.8
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.8%