Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -11.6 335
Results Rating -13.0 344
Consistency 0.13 75
Pace 58.7 365
Improvement +4.1 41

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 330 C- F D F+ B-
Defense D 317 D+ D+ D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 71 D+ 54% 290 +0.6 156
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 219 C- 37% 212 -1.6 265
Three Pointers 40% 196 C 34% 194 -0.5 198
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 80 D+ -2.3 260
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 219
Second Chance F 21.4% 355 F+ 0.85 356 F 0.18 361
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.5% 281
Other Turnovers D 8.6% 321
Turnovers D 19.1% 318
Freethrows F+ 0.23 358 C- 71% 224 F+ 0.16 355
Total Offense D -6.5 330

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 93 C- 11.5% 212
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 310 D+ 6.8% 290
Three Pointers B- 88% 90 B- 0.5% 84
Total B- 59% 97 C- 6.3% 258

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 239 D+ 62% 289 +0.5 201
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 188 D 42% 303 +0.5 229
Three Pointers 43% 111 D+ 36% 266 +2.3 291
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 154 D +3.3 309
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 288
Second Chance D 33.6% 308 C- 1.07 237 D+ 0.36 296
Turnovers from Steals D 7.9% 301
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 201
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 284
Freethrows C 0.30 184 F 77% 358 C- 0.23 243
Total Defense D -5.2 317

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 106 D+ 8.3% 284
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 287 C- 3.9% 231
Three Pointers D+ 87% 280 C+ 1.1% 121
Total C 56% 196 D+ 4.3% 282

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.0 361 17.2 158
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 348 0.19 245
Consistency 0.11 121 0.11 99
Improvement +2.9 57 +1.2 122

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 343 336 328
Results Rating Rank 347 345 337
Conference Record 5 - 15 5 - 15 6 - 14
Conference Finish 12 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Merrimack (Home) - 24.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 147 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 119 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 6% -17  0% 0 - 1 D- -14 F+ -10 D- F F D+ -4 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 358 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 56% +0  43% 1 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -9 F D C- B +4 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 361 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 79% +8  90% 2 - 1 D -9 C- -1 A- F B+ D- -7 C- F F
 Mon, Nov 17 293 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 26% -4  7% 2 - 2 D -11 D -6 C+ F D D -5 F+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 2 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  0% 2 - 3 F -29 F -15 F C F F -19 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 200 Howard L 70 - 80 19% +4  75% 2 - 4 D- -12 F+ -8 C- B- F D+ -3 C C- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 254 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 36% -6  5% 2 - 5 D- -12 F+ -10 D+ F B- C- -3 A- F+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 201 @Siena L 54 - 83 13% -22  0% 2 - 6 0 - 1 F -28 F -17 F F A+ F -13 F D- D-
 Sun, Dec 7 238 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 17% -13  0% 2 - 7 0 - 2 F -29 F -25 F F F F+ -9 D- F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 348 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 45% -4  6% 2 - 8 F -18 D -5 D+ D+ B- F -13 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  6% 2 - 9 D- -12 D -5 D F+ B- F+ -9 F B C+
 Fri, Jan 2 284 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 44% +9  99% 3 - 9 1 - 2 D+ -7 D -6 B+ F D+ C -1 A F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 245 Fairfield L 75 - 83 35% -5  6% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F+ -16 B +6 A+ F C F -23 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 242 @Iona L 53 - 71 17% -16  1% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -20 F -14 F F A F+ -8 D D- D-
 Sun, Jan 11 324 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 34% +1  52% 3 - 12 1 - 5 F+ -16 C- -1 A- F D+ F -17 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 343 @Canisius W 59 - 54 41% +3  76% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -4 D -6 D+ F D B- +3 B+ C- C-
 Mon, Jan 19 286 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 44% -1  54% 4 - 13 2 - 6 F -20 F -11 F A+ F F -10 D B F
 Thu, Jan 22 245 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 18% -3  8% 4 - 14 2 - 7 C- -3 F -12 D+ F D- A +9 B- D+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 284 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 71 23% +5  95% 4 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -5 D -5 B+ B F C+ +0 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 201 Siena L 79 - 82 28% -3  19% 4 - 16 2 - 9 D -8 A- +10 A+ C+ C+ F -18 F D C-
 Sun, Feb 1 183 Marist L 46 - 58 25% -5  2% 4 - 17 2 - 10 F+ -17 F -20 F F F C+ +1 B+ B F
 Tue, Feb 3 343 Canisius W 65 - 56 64% +8  92% 5 - 17 3 - 10 D+ -6 C- -1 A+ F F D+ -3 C- C+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 211 @Quinnipiac L 55 - 56 14% -5  12% 5 - 18 3 - 11 C -1 D- -8 D+ D+ F A- +7 B A+ A-
 Fri, Feb 13 324 Manhattan L 69 - 76 57% -5  11% 5 - 19 3 - 12 F -20 F+ -9 B F D F -12 F F C
 Sun, Feb 15 242 Iona W 70 - 68 35% +1  55% 6 - 19 4 - 12 D+ -6 B+ +9 A+ F A- F -14 C+ F F
 Fri, Feb 20 286 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 76 24% -7  11% 6 - 20 4 - 13 F+ -17 F -12 F F+ F D -6 D F C-
 Sun, Feb 22 356 @Rider L 62 - 67 52% +0  54% 6 - 21 4 - 14 F+ -17 F -14 B- F F D+ -4 D- B- C
 Fri, Feb 27 211 Quinnipiac W 78 - 76 OT 29% -1  19% 7 - 21 5 - 14 C- -4 B- +4 B- B- B D- -7 C D F
 Sun, Mar 1 172 Merrimack L 59 - 67 24%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -12 D -6 C+ D+ B- D -5 C C- F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ C- C D+ 43% 34% 40% B- C- F F+ F D F+ C- F+ D D+ D D+ D 37% 20% 43% C D+ D C- D+ D+ C F C-
0.99 54% 37% 34% -2 +1 0.99 21% 0.8 .18 19% .23 71% .16 1.16 62% 42% 36% +3 0 1.09 34% 1.1 .36 15% .30 77% .18
Nov
3		 Duquesne F+ C+ B- F F+ 47% 23% 30% B- D- F F F F A+ A- A+ D+ F A+ F F 39% 12% 49% B- F B- F D+ A+ A+ D- A
0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38 1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19
Nov
8		 Binghamton F+ D D- F F 47% 18% 35% C+ F D C- D C- C- C C- B A- A+ A+ A+ 53% 22% 24% D- A+ F D F F C- B+ C+
1.05 54% 33% 22% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.0 .28 13% .30 71% .22 0.92 46% 18% 25% -14 +1 0.76 30% 0.9 .27 14% .37 70% .26
Nov
10		 Delaware St. C- D D A+ A- 55% 7% 39% A A- F F F B+ D- F+ F+ D- A D- B+ C 36% 26% 38% F+ C- C+ F F F B+ C+ B+
1.14 58% 33% 53% +11 +3 1.30 12% 0.7 .08 15% .28 64% .18 0.96 41% 42% 28% -9 -1 0.83 23% 1.3 .29 13% .23 67% .15
Nov
17		 Le Moyne D F F A+ B- 29% 20% 51% D+ C+ F D+ F D F+ B+ D D C- A- F F 29% 22% 49% A- F+ C+ A+ A+ C- F F F
1.01 33% 20% 50% +1 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 16% .25 79% .20 1.10 62% 30% 45% +8 -1 1.16 23% 0.3 .07 19% .41 91% .37
Nov
21		 Duke F F F F F 29% 15% 56% B+ F C- B- C F A+ F B+ F D+ F F F 31% 6% 63% B F F+ F F D+ F F+ F
0.65 42% 17% 22% -18 0 0.66 19% 0.9 .17 26% .31 60% .19 1.54 67% 67% 53% +23 +1 1.50 46% 1.5 .67 14% .43 79% .34
Nov
22		 Howard F+ F A+ F D+ 60% 15% 26% B C- C- A B- F A+ C- A+ D+ A F C C 45% 12% 43% D C B- D- C- C- F B+ F
0.93 46% 71% 25% -5 +2 0.96 31% 1.3 .41 29% .54 69% .37 1.06 42% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.95 32% 1.2 .38 20% .71 70% .50
Nov
29		 Detroit Mercy F+ A- A+ F D+ 36% 13% 51% C D+ F A+ F B- F F F C- C+ D A+ A 33% 31% 36% D A- F+ D F+ D F C F
1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16 1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41
Dec
5		 Siena F F A+ F F 50% 11% 39% A F F D F A+ F F F F D+ F+ F F 37% 23% 40% D F D+ D- D- D- B B B
0.83 44% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 17% 0.9 .15 11% .19 55% .10 1.27 63% 50% 43% +10 0 1.21 32% 1.1 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Dec
7		 St. Peter's F D+ F F F 38% 23% 38% D F D- F F F F A+ D+ F+ A+ F F D- 40% 20% 40% D+ D- C+ F F D- B D B-
0.71 53% 11% 20% -16 0 0.69 30% 0.8 .23 30% .33 86% .28 1.17 39% 56% 39% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.5 .50 15% .27 79% .21
Dec
13		 Morgan St. D D+ A D- D 50% 8% 42% B D+ F A+ D+ B- F B- F F F F F F 24% 29% 47% B F F D+ F A+ F F F
1.09 58% 50% 30% -1 +2 1.04 14% 2.8 .38 13% .33 74% .24 1.21 78% 73% 44% +22 -2 1.42 56% 0.9 .50 34% .48 86% .41
Dec
15		 Virginia Commonwealth D F+ F+ C D- 54% 19% 28% B D A- F F+ B- F A+ F F+ A- C+ F F 27% 11% 62% B F D+ A B C+ C- A B-
0.92 45% 30% 33% -9 +1 0.87 38% 0.4 .17 16% .15 88% .13 1.34 50% 40% 54% +16 0 1.36 37% 0.9 .33 16% .40 67% .26
Jan
2		 Sacred Heart D C+ C+ A+ A- 37% 12% 51% C+ B+ F F F D+ C- D- D+ C C- A+ A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% F+ A F A F A+ F F+ F
1.10 63% 40% 45% +11 +1 1.26 19% 0.6 .12 15% .24 67% .16 1.05 58% 17% 22% -10 +1 0.84 46% 0.8 .37 24% .41 83% .34
Jan
4		 Fairfield B B+ A+ A+ A 59% 4% 37% A A+ D+ F F C F A+ F F D- F F F 44% 25% 31% C F F D+ F F F F F
1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08 1.37 62% 50% 40% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
9		 Iona F D+ F F F 32% 22% 46% D+ F F+ F F A F A- F+ F+ F F A- D 34% 15% 51% C- D F A D- D- C F D
0.87 56% 18% 26% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 12% .17 78% .13 1.17 69% 57% 29% +3 0 1.09 39% 0.8 .33 15% .25 85% .21
Jan
11		 Manhattan C- F+ A+ A+ B+ 49% 9% 43% A A- F F F D+ F A+ F F D A- A+ C+ 44% 29% 27% C+ C+ F F F F F F F
1.16 52% 75% 50% +10 +2 1.28 28% 0.5 .14 17% .14 86% .12 1.31 60% 31% 25% -5 -1 0.91 37% 1.7 .63 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
14		 Canisius D D+ F B- D 56% 17% 27% B+ D+ D- F F D A- B+ A B- B D- A+ A- 25% 16% 59% C- B+ F A+ C- C- F+ D F+
1.02 57% 29% 36% -2 +2 1.02 26% 0.4 .10 17% .37 78% .29 0.93 45% 43% 23% -12 0 0.77 41% 0.6 .26 19% .34 75% .25
Jan
19		 Mount St. Mary's F F D- F F 45% 14% 41% A- F A+ A+ A+ F C- F D F A F D- D+ 51% 9% 40% F+ D D- A+ B F F D F
0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21 1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29
Jan
22		 Fairfield F D- A+ C D 54% 8% 38% B+ D+ F F F D- F C+ F A A F B B 41% 20% 39% D+ B- C- D+ D+ B A A+ A+
0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11 0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09
Jan
24		 Sacred Heart D A- D A B+ 51% 13% 36% B B+ F A+ B F F F F C+ F F D F 25% 22% 53% B F+ A+ A+ A+ F C- A B-
1.06 71% 33% 41% +10 +2 1.26 21% 2.0 .42 21% .13 14% .02 1.08 69% 45% 37% +7 -1 1.14 13% 0.5 .06 14% .28 69% .19
Jan
30		 Siena A- C- A+ A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ C+ C+ D F F F F F C- F 26% 38% 36% A+ F A+ F D C- F F F
1.25 56% 50% 52% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.3 .32 16% .25 54% .13 1.30 91% 63% 33% +18 -3 1.31 20% 1.8 .35 16% .43 87% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Marist F F F A+ F 44% 24% 31% B- F C F F F F D- F C+ C C A+ B- 31% 44% 24% A+ B+ A+ F B F D F F+
0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15 0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24
Feb
3		 Canisius C- A- A A+ A+ 50% 5% 45% A+ A+ F+ F F F F B+ F D+ D- F A+ C 40% 17% 44% F+ C- A+ F C+ F A+ F A-
1.13 70% 50% 44% +14 +3 1.35 23% 0.8 .18 21% .20 78% .15 0.97 58% 63% 19% -6 +1 0.92 16% 1.4 .23 14% .16 88% .14
Feb
7		 Quinnipiac D- B- C- D C- 32% 22% 46% D D+ C+ F D+ F D- D+ D- A- A+ A+ F B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B F A+ A+ A- D- F+ F+
0.93 62% 33% 32% -2 -1 0.98 35% 0.8 .29 25% .23 70% .16 0.95 38% 13% 40% -8 0 0.86 42% 0.4 .18 20% .34 75% .25
Feb
13		 Manhattan F+ A+ A+ D- B- 43% 15% 41% B- B F F F D A- A- A F F A+ F F 27% 29% 44% A- F D+ F F C B D- B-
1.09 75% 57% 32% +9 +1 1.22 16% 0.5 .08 17% .31 81% .25 1.20 77% 14% 48% +7 -2 1.13 29% 1.4 .42 16% .24 85% .21
Feb
15		 Iona B+ C- C A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% C+ A+ F F F A- B A+ A F F D- A C 20% 20% 59% A- C+ F F F F F F+ F
1.25 58% 38% 56% +12 +1 1.28 16% 0.5 .08 12% .31 87% .26 1.21 78% 44% 27% -1 -1 0.98 34% 1.5 .53 12% .35 76% .26
Feb
20		 Mount St. Mary's F D A F F 27% 22% 51% D+ F D+ F F+ F A+ B A+ D D+ A+ B- D+ 62% 12% 26% F D F F F C- C+ B+ B-
0.90 50% 50% 22% -9 -1 0.82 26% 0.8 .20 21% .51 79% .40 1.09 61% 17% 31% -2 +3 1.04 37% 1.4 .50 21% .29 63% .18
Feb
22		 Rider F A F B+ B- 55% 11% 34% B- B- F F F F D- F F D+ F A+ D- F+ 34% 43% 23% A- D- D- A B- C F+ F F
0.96 71% 20% 40% +8 +2 1.23 16% 0.5 .08 28% .23 55% .13 1.03 69% 25% 36% -1 -3 0.94 36% 0.7 .24 17% .33 83% .28
Feb
27		 Quinnipiac B- C+ A+ C- B 41% 26% 33% D+ B- C+ B+ B- B F F+ F D- C C+ B C+ 36% 18% 46% D+ C C+ F D F F D+ F
1.14 59% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.07 34% 1.2 .40 15% .20 67% .14 1.11 56% 33% 30% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.3 .39 10% .39 71% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 55.0 24.0 79.0 11th
12th 21.0 21.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 76.0 24.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 24.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.0
5-15 76.0% 76.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.8% 0.4% 16.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 76.0%