North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -7.7 291
Results Rating -5.0 245
Consistency 0.15 175
Pace 68.9 170
Improvement +4.2 38

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 199 D+ C- B- C+ B
Defense D- 340 D- F+ B D- F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 84 D 52% 321 -0.6 201
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 274 D 33% 318 -2.9 316
Three Pointers 43% 141 D+ 32% 262 -0.2 184
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 62 D -4.4 318
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 295
Second Chance C- 27.9% 248 C 1.04 162 C- 0.29 221
Opponents' Steals B 8.2% 71
Other Turnovers C+ 7.0% 148
Turnovers B- 15.2% 86
Freethrows B- 0.33 106 D+ 70% 260 C+ 0.23 148
Total Offense C- -1.1 199

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 28% 361 C- 12.1% 253
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 227 C- 5.8% 238
Three Pointers C 83% 209 B 0.3% 50
Total D- 46% 334 C- 6.1% 241

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 63 D 63% 315 +4.9 336
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 358 C- 39% 218 -2.6 13
Three Pointers 43% 102 D 37% 314 +3.4 322
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.2 355 D- +4.2 328
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 341
Second Chance D- 35.0% 335 D- 1.15 332 F+ 0.40 350
Turnovers from Steals B 11.2% 59
Other Turnovers B 8.4% 64
Turnovers B 19.5% 37
Freethrows F+ 0.38 345 C 72% 170 D- 0.27 339
Total Defense D- -6.6 340

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 61% 357 D 6.6% 332
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 155 C+ 5.9% 107
Three Pointers D 89% 331 C 0.9% 153
Total F+ 66% 355 D 4.0% 306

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 231 16.6 56
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 284 0.16 148
Consistency 0.14 306 0.12 155
Improvement +6.4 2 -2.2 298

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 306 290 271
Results Rating Rank 260 252 225
Conference Record 10 - 6 10 - 6 11 - 5
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 3% 8% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: North Dakota St. (Away) - 12.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 411 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 17 @Alabama L 62 - 91 1% -17  0% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F -11 C+ F C+ B +5 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 281 UC Riverside L 70 - 74 58% -5  11% 0 - 2 D- -14 F+ -9 C+ F C+ D -5 F B A+
 Sun, Nov 9 157 Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 93 33% -4  25% 0 - 3 D -11 C+ +2 C B- A+ F -13 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 281 @UC Riverside W 76 - 74 35% +0  54% 1 - 3 C- -2 D+ -4 C F C C+ +2 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 19 70 @Creighton L 60 - 75 5% -9  9% 1 - 4 C- -4 D- -7 D D A- C+ +2 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 22 228 Coastal Carolina L 58 - 75 35% -10  20% 1 - 5 F -21 F -20 F C- D+ C +0 F B+ D
 Sun, Nov 23 363 @Western Illinois W 78 - 69 77% -1  47% 2 - 5 D+ -6 D- -7 C- F F+ C -0 F F+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 116 @Hawaii L 55 - 92 10% -14  15% 2 - 6 F -31 F -19 F D+ F F+ -8 F C- B+
 Wed, Dec 3 179 @Idaho L 58 - 90 18% -15  12% 2 - 7 F -30 F -16 C- F F F -14 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 192 Montana L 75 - 79 39% +1  48% 2 - 8 D -9 C- -1 F+ A+ C+ F+ -8 D- F A
 Sat, Dec 13 363 Western Illinois L 66 - 69 OT 89% -1  38% 2 - 9 F -24 F -20 F C+ F D+ -4 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 18 138 Winthrop W 90 - 88 28% -2  32% 3 - 9 C +0 A +13 C- A+ A+ F -13 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 13 @Nebraska L 55 - 78 1% -3  47% 3 - 10 C -1 D -4 C+ F B B- +2 B+ A F
 Thu, Jan 1 325 Oral Roberts W 72 - 61 71% +10  98% 4 - 10 1 - 0 C- -2 F+ -8 D- C- F B+ +6 A D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 209 South Dakota St. W 90 - 87 OT 42% +1  60% 5 - 10 2 - 0 C- -3 A +11 B- A+ C+ F -14 F+ F B
 Thu, Jan 8 255 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 90 29% -7  1% 5 - 11 2 - 1 D- -13 C+ +3 D- C A- F -16 F D B
 Sat, Jan 10 360 @UMKC W 81 - 79 72% -2  28% 6 - 11 3 - 1 D- -12 B+ +8 D+ C- A+ F -20 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 115 St. Thomas L 80 - 91 22% -5  9% 6 - 12 3 - 2 D -11 C -0 C- A F+ F -10 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 17 285 South Dakota W 96 - 80 59% +11  94% 7 - 12 4 - 2 B- +6 A+ +16 C+ A+ A+ F -10 F A- C+
 Thu, Jan 22 325 @Oral Roberts W 79 - 62 49% +8  84% 8 - 12 5 - 2 B +10 B +6 D B A+ B +5 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 243 @Denver W 93 - 86 28% +0  49% 9 - 12 6 - 2 B- +5 B +7 B- D+ C+ C- -2 F A- A-
 Thu, Jan 29 115 @St. Thomas W 81 - 80 10% -2  29% 10 - 12 7 - 2 B- +7 B+ +9 B C- A+ C -1 B- D C
 Thu, Feb 5 255 Nebraska Omaha W 76 - 73 51% -5  7% 11 - 12 8 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -3 F D- A+ C- -2 A F C+
 Sat, Feb 7 243 Denver L 79 - 98 50% -12  0% 11 - 13 8 - 3 F -27 D+ -3 F D A+ F -25 F F D
 Wed, Feb 11 285 @South Dakota W 72 - 71 36% -1  36% 12 - 13 9 - 3 C- -3 C- -2 F B- A- C -1 C D C
 Sat, Feb 14 137 North Dakota St. L 66 - 83 28% -4  35% 12 - 14 9 - 4 F -19 D -6 D- D+ C F -14 F F A+
 Thu, Feb 19 360 UMKC W 85 - 70 87% +7  84% 13 - 14 10 - 4 C- -5 D -4 F A- F+ C- -2 B- C- C-
 Sat, Feb 21 209 @South Dakota St. L 83 - 91 22% +3  78% 13 - 15 10 - 5 D+ -8 A +12 A+ F A F -21 F+ F F+
 Sat, Feb 28 137 @North Dakota St. L 70 - 82 13%
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 6 -8 C- -1 B- D B D- -7 D+ D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D D D+ D 42% 29% 43% B D+ C- C C- B- B- D+ C+ D- D C- D D- 43% 14% 43% F+ D- D- D- F+ B F+ C D-
1.07 52% 33% 32% -4 +1 0.95 28% 1.0 .29 15% .33 70% .23 1.18 63% 39% 37% +4 +1 1.13 35% 1.1 .40 20% .38 72% .24
Nov
3		 Alabama F C+ C F+ C+ 44% 25% 32% B C+ F F F C+ C F D B F F B+ D+ 44% 6% 50% D D+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F
0.84 56% 36% 28% -4 0 0.93 17% 0.1 .02 14% .27 53% .14 1.23 78% 67% 31% +8 +2 1.23 37% 0.7 .27 20% .46 78% .36
Nov
6		 UC Riverside F+ C A+ D- C 44% 16% 40% B- C+ D- F F C+ B+ F D- D F+ F A- F+ 59% 7% 34% F F A+ F+ B A+ F F F
0.99 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 24% 0.6 .15 14% .40 50% .20 1.05 67% 67% 29% +4 +3 1.17 17% 1.0 .17 27% .52 81% .43
Nov
9		 Cal St. Northridge C+ A+ F+ F C 34% 17% 48% C+ C D A+ B- A+ B F C F F A+ F F 47% 20% 33% B- F F C F A- F B F
1.12 80% 30% 25% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.6 .36 11% .34 65% .22 1.23 71% 20% 47% +9 +1 1.22 42% 1.0 .42 21% .52 61% .32
Nov
15		 UC Riverside D+ C F B+ C- 49% 10% 41% A- C D- F F C F F F C+ D F D+ F 40% 6% 53% F F C C- C A+ F A+ D+
1.02 59% 17% 38% 0 +2 1.07 24% 0.7 .17 15% .22 50% .11 1.00 63% 67% 36% +5 +2 1.17 27% 0.9 .23 28% .39 62% .24
Nov
19		 Creighton D- D F C- F+ 47% 20% 33% A- D D+ D- D A- C- B- C- C+ F A+ A+ A+ 27% 9% 64% D+ A+ F F F B F A+ F
0.93 50% 18% 33% -8 +1 0.87 24% 0.9 .21 12% .19 73% .14 1.16 92% 0% 17% -11 +1 0.82 50% 1.3 .64 17% .47 60% .28
Nov
22		 Coastal Carolina F F F F F 23% 33% 44% D F C+ D- C- D+ A+ F A+ C C- F D- F 39% 17% 44% F F A+ F B+ D D+ A+ B
0.78 36% 25% 14% -22 -3 0.52 29% 0.9 .25 13% .53 65% .34 1.01 57% 56% 38% +5 +1 1.13 15% 1.2 .18 13% .28 56% .16
Nov
23		 Western Illinois D- D+ D+ A+ C 42% 27% 31% D- C- F A+ F F+ C+ A+ A- C A A F F 37% 17% 46% F F C F F+ A+ F A+ C
1.07 59% 36% 44% +4 -1 1.10 12% 2.0 .23 18% .33 85% .28 0.94 41% 25% 48% +1 0 1.04 24% 1.4 .32 23% .37 52% .20
Nov
28		 Hawaii F F F F F 50% 8% 42% A F F A+ D+ F A+ F A F+ F B- A+ F 60% 6% 34% F F D C+ C- B+ F B+ F
0.71 38% 25% 20% -20 +2 0.67 16% 1.3 .22 21% .46 61% .28 1.19 80% 33% 24% +8 +3 1.24 33% 1.0 .33 22% .51 68% .35
Dec
3		 Idaho F B- D- D+ C- 34% 19% 47% B- C- D- F F F B F D- F F A+ F F 30% 7% 63% D F F F F A- F F F
0.84 63% 33% 32% -1 0 1.00 19% 0.0 .00 24% .38 55% .21 1.30 69% 0% 48% +14 +1 1.33 39% 1.2 .48 20% .43 92% .40
Dec
6		 Montana C- B- D- F F+ 42% 25% 33% C F+ A A- A+ C+ C+ A B F+ B- C- F D- 40% 11% 49% D- D- F F F A F A+ F+
1.09 64% 31% 18% -7 0 0.87 40% 1.2 .48 14% .31 78% .24 1.15 56% 40% 45% +8 +1 1.20 33% 1.4 .48 25% .46 63% .29
Dec
13		 Western Illinois F F F F 48% 0% 52% A F D+ A- C+ F A+ C A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 18% 28% F A+ F D- F A F F F
0.91 50% 17% -17 +3 0.74 32% 1.3 .42 23% .45 72% .33 0.95 33% 22% 14% -24 +1 0.56 48% 1.1 .52 22% .44 80% .35
Dec
18		 Winthrop A F A A- D 41% 4% 55% A C- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F C+ F F F 43% 8% 50% D F A F F C+ F A- F
1.30 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 10% .51 72% .37 1.27 53% 67% 45% +8 +2 1.23 26% 1.9 .48 16% .74 67% .50
Dec
21		 Nebraska D F F B C 25% 23% 53% B C+ F+ F F B D- A+ D+ B- F+ A A+ A- 44% 15% 41% C- B+ D- A+ A F D F F+
0.83 46% 25% 36% -5 -1 0.91 16% 0.0 .00 18% .16 78% .13 1.17 75% 25% 27% +1 +1 1.07 31% 0.5 .17 9% .31 84% .26
Jan
1		 Oral Roberts F+ F F A+ F+ 51% 16% 33% C D- B- F C- F A+ D+ A+ B+ A- F A+ A+ 41% 14% 45% D+ A B+ F D+ C- D+ A+ C+
1.04 41% 29% 43% -6 +1 0.93 36% 0.9 .33 20% .62 68% .42 0.88 45% 57% 18% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.3 .30 17% .33 63% .21
Jan
3		 South Dakota St. A B+ B- C+ B- 28% 13% 58% C+ B- A+ C- A+ C+ C A+ B+ F C+ A+ F F+ 46% 10% 44% F F+ F F+ F B F F F
1.29 67% 43% 35% +4 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27 1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32
Jan
8		 Nebraska Omaha C+ F+ D- C- F+ 34% 12% 54% C+ D- C+ C- C A- A+ D A+ F F F F F 46% 12% 41% F F F+ B- D B F F F
1.15 53% 33% 33% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.0 .31 10% .49 70% .34 1.32 68% 60% 47% +16 +2 1.37 32% 1.0 .32 19% .63 80% .51
Jan
10		 UMKC B+ F A- A- D+ 43% 20% 37% C- D+ D+ C+ C- A+ A+ F B+ F B- F F F 19% 40% 40% A+ F F A+ C+ A+ D F F
1.24 48% 45% 40% 0 0 1.04 33% 1.1 .36 8% .40 58% .23 1.21 50% 59% 65% +26 -4 1.45 39% 0.6 .22 27% .29 93% .27
Jan
15		 St. Thomas C F+ A+ C D 56% 8% 36% A C- C+ A+ A F+ A+ C+ A+ F D A+ F F 38% 5% 57% D+ F A F D A+ F A+ F
1.10 50% 50% 33% -4 +3 1.00 30% 1.6 .48 21% .52 77% .40 1.25 69% 0% 67% +30 +2 1.67 13% 2.0 .25 21% .59 56% .33
Jan
17		 South Dakota A+ B D C C+ 52% 18% 30% C C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F F F F D A+ F F 44% 10% 46% F+ F B A+ A- C+ D- F F
1.37 66% 36% 33% +3 +1 1.11 38% 1.8 .71 9% .11 57% .06 1.15 62% 20% 45% +8 +2 1.21 23% 0.7 .17 19% .42 83% .35
Jan
22		 Oral Roberts B F D- A+ D- 63% 12% 25% A- D C- A+ B A+ C- A+ B+ B C A+ A+ A+ 55% 3% 43% F B+ F F F A+ F B F
1.20 39% 33% 54% -5 +3 0.98 30% 1.4 .42 9% .30 89% .27 0.94 55% 0% 18% -13 +4 0.83 39% 1.2 .45 27% .57 70% .40
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Denver B C F A+ B 38% 17% 44% C- B- C D- D+ C+ A+ C- A+ C- B+ F F F 33% 20% 47% F+ F A- B+ A- A- F A+ F
1.27 60% 22% 48% +7 0 1.17 34% 1.0 .34 12% .50 69% .34 1.18 47% 60% 46% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.0 .24 18% .45 67% .30
Jan
29		 St. Thomas B+ C A+ C B 45% 11% 44% B B D+ C+ C- A+ D+ F D C C F A- B 55% 10% 35% D- B- F B- D C F D- F
1.18 60% 67% 33% +4 +2 1.13 26% 1.2 .32 12% .25 67% .17 1.17 63% 60% 29% +3 +3 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 15% .39 74% .29
Feb
5		 Nebraska Omaha D+ A F F F 37% 15% 48% C+ F C+ F D- A+ A+ F A+ C- F A+ A A 28% 24% 48% B+ A F F F C+ F A D
1.11 74% 25% 20% -6 +1 0.90 30% 0.7 .21 4% .58 66% .38 1.07 77% 9% 27% -6 -1 0.87 35% 1.3 .45 18% .39 64% .25
Feb
7		 Denver D+ C+ F F F 63% 4% 33% A+ F F A D A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F C- F 35% 23% 42% D F F D- F D F D- F
1.18 62% 0% 11% -11 +4 0.89 24% 1.3 .32 4% .44 86% .37 1.46 83% 58% 36% +15 -1 1.31 43% 1.3 .54 12% .39 83% .32
Feb
11		 South Dakota C- F A+ F F 71% 8% 21% A+ F B- C- B- A- C- F+ D C F B- A+ B 54% 6% 40% F C F+ C- D C B+ D+ B
1.08 43% 75% 27% -10 +4 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 12% .27 69% .19 1.06 74% 33% 10% -6 +3 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 18% .31 76% .24
Feb
14		 North Dakota St. D F A C F 44% 8% 48% A D- D C- D+ C A+ D A F D- A+ D- F+ 49% 2% 49% F F F F F A+ F+ D- F
1.02 48% 50% 35% -3 +2 1.00 25% 0.9 .22 19% .38 70% .27 1.28 67% 0% 38% +6 +3 1.21 44% 1.6 .70 23% .34 76% .26
Feb
19		 UMKC D F F C F 47% 6% 47% A- F D A+ A- F+ A+ A+ A+ C- A- A+ B B+ 48% 14% 38% F B- B- F C- C- C- F D
1.10 39% 0% 35% -11 +2 0.86 33% 1.5 .50 21% .52 81% .43 0.91 44% 25% 29% -11 +2 0.82 24% 1.1 .26 18% .27 76% .21
Feb
21		 South Dakota St. A A+ A A A+ 35% 11% 54% B A+ F F F A F F F F B A+ F F+ 35% 12% 53% D+ F+ F F F F+ F F F
1.26 74% 50% 41% +13 +1 1.30 19% 0.8 .16 11% .20 67% .14 1.38 53% 17% 46% +5 +1 1.14 42% 1.3 .55 12% .43 84% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.7 1.7 2nd
3rd 87.4 10.9 98.3 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 87.4 12.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 12.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.1 0.2 12.3
10-6 87.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5 85.9
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 98.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.8 23.4 76.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.2%
Lose Out 54.4%