North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.4 #319
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 #287
Pace 70.7 #135
Improvement +2.5 #58

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #275 D D C C B-
Defense #339 F F A- F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.04 #311 -1.8 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #287 0.64 #314 -3.0 #318
Three Pointers 45% #106 0.94 #276 +0.4 #164
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #297 -4.4 #302
Freethrows 18.1 #140 69% #279 12.5 #189
Second Chance 27.8% #255 0.96 #270 0.27 #283
Turnovers 16.1% #147
Total Offense -3.8 #275

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.27 #307 -4.3 #314
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #333 0.85 #309 +1.5 #81
Three Pointers 43% #117 1.11 #306 -3.3 #309
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #344 -6.1 #342
Freethrows 21.9 #345 75% #291 16.4 #17
Second Chance 35.0% #320 1.14 #300 0.40 #334
Turnovers 19.6% #45
Total Defense -5.6 #339

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #88 2.0% #341
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.6% #327 9.8% #330
Possession Length 18.1 #256 16.4 #42
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #308 0.18 #193
Improvement +5.3 #3 -2.7 #324

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.8% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 3.4% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 36.4% 60.5% 29.5%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 2.0% 8.3%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 1.2%
First Round0.8% 1.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Home) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 52 - 10
Quad 49 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 14 @Alabama L 62 - 91 1% -17  0 - 1 -8 -8 C+ F B- +2 C- A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 287 UC Riverside L 70 - 74 53% -5  0 - 2 -14 -8 C F C -6 F C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 216 Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 93 37% -4  0 - 3 -14 +2 C C A+ -16 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 287 @UC Riverside W 76 - 74 31% +0  1 - 3 -2 -3 C F C +1 F D+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 43 @Creighton L 60 - 75 2% -9  1 - 4 +0 -2 D+ D+ B+ +1 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 22 268 Coastal Carolina L 58 - 75 37% -10  1 - 5 -23 -19 F D D+ -3 F B+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 357 @Western Illinois W 78 - 69 59% -1  2 - 5 -3 -1 C- F F -2 F D- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 104 @Hawaii L 55 - 92 6% -14  2 - 6 -29 -15 F D F -10 F C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 194 @Idaho L 58 - 90 17% -15  2 - 7 -31 -16 D F F -15 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 186 Montana L 75 - 79 32% +1  2 - 8 -9 +1 D- A C+ -10 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 357 Western Illinois L 66 - 69 OT 79% -1  2 - 9 -21 -14 F C+ F -6 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 143 Winthrop W 90 - 88 24% -2  3 - 9 +0 +15 D+ A+ A+ -15 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 16 @Nebraska L 55 - 78 1% -3  3 - 10 -3 -5 C F B- +1 A- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 298 Oral Roberts W 72 - 61 56% +10  4 - 10 1 - 0 +0 -5 D- D F +5 A+ D+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 176 South Dakota St. W 90 - 87 OT 30% +1  5 - 10 2 - 0 -1 +15 B A+ B -16 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 258 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 90 25% -7  5 - 11 2 - 1 -13 +4 D C- A- -18 F D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 346 @UMKC W 81 - 79 48% -2  6 - 11 3 - 1 -7 +11 D+ C A+ -18 F B- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 128 St. Thomas L 74 - 82 22%
 Sat, Jan 17 282 South Dakota W 83 - 82 51%
 Thu, Jan 22 298 @Oral Roberts L 73 - 77 34%
 Sat, Jan 24 280 @Denver L 78 - 84 30%
 Thu, Jan 29 128 @St. Thomas L 71 - 85 10%
 Thu, Feb 5 258 Nebraska Omaha L 77 - 78 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 280 Denver W 82 - 81 51%
 Wed, Feb 11 282 @South Dakota L 79 - 85 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 148 North Dakota St. L 72 - 79 25%
 Thu, Feb 19 346 UMKC W 78 - 73 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 176 @South Dakota St. L 72 - 83 15%
 Sat, Feb 28 148 @North Dakota St. L 69 - 82 12%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 9 -9 -4 D D C -6 F F A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.9 3.1 0.7 0.1 9.3 3rd
4th 0.1 3.8 9.0 6.1 1.2 0.1 20.4 4th
5th 0.0 3.4 11.1 6.3 0.9 0.0 21.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 9.8 6.4 0.8 19.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 7.5 6.2 0.8 15.7 7th
8th 0.4 3.3 4.3 0.6 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.5 9th
Total 1.3 5.9 14.0 20.3 22.2 17.3 11.1 5.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 91.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-4 38.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
11-5 7.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 4.2% 4.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.5% 10.1% 10.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-5 1.9% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.9
10-6 5.4% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.1
9-7 11.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 10.8
8-8 17.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 17.0
7-9 22.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 21.9
6-10 20.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 20.1
5-11 14.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.0
4-12 5.9% 5.9
3-13 1.3% 1.3
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%