Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.7 #276
Expected Predictive Rating -6.5 #267
Pace 64.5 #301
Improvement +5.5 #9

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #235 C- D C- B+ D-
Defense #310 F D+ C D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 1.01 #331 -4.3 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #55 0.85 #63 +3.9 #29
Three Pointers 37% #268 1.05 #134 -1.3 #238
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #220 -1.7 #221
Freethrows 20.3 #47 74% #136 15.1 #50
Second Chance 23.8% #338 1.12 #92 0.27 #284
Turnovers 17.3% #227
Total Offense -2.4 #235

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #82 1.36 #357 -6.5 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #314 0.85 #315 +1.0 #124
Three Pointers 42% #154 1.07 #258 -1.6 #258
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #354 -7.1 #354
Freethrows 19.2 #276 72% #167 13.9 #89
Second Chance 33.8% #292 1.06 #213 0.36 #276
Turnovers 16.7% #179
Total Defense -4.3 #310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #310 1.8% #329
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #193 12.0% #347
Possession Length 18.7 #311 16.6 #67
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #272 0.21 #291
Improvement -0.5 #217 +6.0 #1

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 1.0% 2.7% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 28.8% 49.2% 22.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 1.4% 5.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 23.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 31 - 61 - 13
Quad 48 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 40 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 3% -19  0 - 1 -14 -2 D- D C -9 C+ F C
 Thu, Nov 6 137 @North Texas L 53 - 80 15% -8  0 - 2 -23 -3 B- F F -25 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 279 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 39% -5  0 - 3 -8 +3 B F C- -11 D F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 103 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 9% -15  0 - 4 -12 +4 D C+ D- -18 F B- D
 Fri, Nov 21 90 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 8% -8  0 - 5 -4 +8 A F A+ -12 F F C
 Sat, Nov 29 263 Southern L 73 - 75 58% -8  0 - 6 -11 -2 F B- D+ -9 F D B+
 Fri, Dec 5 80 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 7% -24  0 - 7 0 - 1 -28 -12 C- F F -17 F C B
 Sun, Dec 7 266 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 36% -3  1 - 7 1 - 1 +5 +9 C A+ F -3 C+ D- C
 Sat, Dec 13 81 @California L 70 - 79 7% -1  1 - 8 +1 +5 A C F -4 B- F A
 Mon, Dec 29 220 Lamar L 61 - 76 48% -12  1 - 9 1 - 2 -21 -8 F F C- -14 F B B
 Wed, Dec 31 108 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 23% -7  1 - 10 1 - 3 -9 -2 D D- A+ -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 245 New Orleans W 74 - 68 54% -5  2 - 10 2 - 3 -2 -1 F A+ C- -0 C+ B D
 Mon, Jan 5 205 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 25% -2  2 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -0 F C A+ -1 D A D
 Sat, Jan 10 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 42% -7  3 - 11 3 - 4 -4 +9 A+ A- F -13 F B- F
 Mon, Jan 12 235 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 51% -4  4 - 11 4 - 4 -6 -7 F F F +1 C B- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 187 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 74 23%
 Mon, Jan 19 301 @Houston Christian L 69 - 71 44%
 Sat, Jan 24 321 East Texas A&M W 74 - 68 71%
 Mon, Jan 26 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 61 - 75 10%
 Sat, Jan 31 245 @New Orleans L 75 - 80 33%
 Mon, Feb 2 205 Nicholls St. L 73 - 74 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 321 @East Texas A&M L 71 - 72 50%
 Mon, Feb 9 220 @Lamar L 64 - 70 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 266 SE Louisiana W 70 - 68 59%
 Mon, Feb 16 80 McNeese St. L 67 - 78 16%
 Sat, Feb 21 301 Houston Christian W 72 - 68 66%
 Mon, Feb 23 187 Incarnate Word L 69 - 71 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 182 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 73 23%
 Mon, Mar 2 235 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 68 - 74 30%
Totals 9 - 20 9 - 13 -7 -2 C- D C- -4 F D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 2.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.6 4.1 1.1 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 6.6 5.6 1.5 0.1 15.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 7.2 7.3 1.7 0.1 17.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.6 8.0 2.3 0.1 16.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.7 6.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 13.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 4.6 1.9 0.1 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.5 0.1 4.7 11th
12th 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.7 12th
Total 0.3 1.6 5.1 10.6 15.7 19.7 18.2 13.1 8.8 4.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-5 20.0% 0.0    0.0
16-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4 0.0% 0.0
17-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-6 0.1% 7.1% 7.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
15-7 0.5% 5.2% 5.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-8 1.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.2 0.1 0.0 1.7
13-9 4.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.4
12-10 8.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.7
11-11 13.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.0
10-12 18.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.2
9-13 19.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.6
8-14 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.7
7-15 10.6% 10.6
6-16 5.1% 5.1
5-17 1.6% 1.6
4-18 0.3% 0.3
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.6 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%