Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#285
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#301
Pace61.6#350
Improvement+2.3#28

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#223
First Shot+0.3#164
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#308
Layup/Dunks-6.3#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#314
Freethrows+4.9#9
Improvement+1.5#52

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#334
First Shot-3.6#297
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#279
Layups/Dunks-0.9#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#279
Freethrows-1.6#278
Improvement+0.8#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 6.0% 10.0% 2.8%
.500 or above in Conference 24.8% 31.3% 19.6%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 20.4% 15.3% 24.6%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 44.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 47 - 79 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 60 @Texas A&M L 68-98 5%     0 - 1 -17.7 -4.7 -10.8
  Thu, Nov 6 123 @North Texas L 53-80 12%     0 - 2 -21.2 -4.2 -22.0
  Tue, Nov 11 242 @North Alabama L 83-87 OT 31%     0 - 3 -5.6 +3.7 -9.1
  Tue, Nov 18 77 @San Francisco L 64-84 6%     0 - 4 -9.5 +4.6 -16.6
  Fri, Nov 21 98 @Grand Canyon L 72-85 9%     0 - 5 -4.8 +6.4 -11.3
  Sat, Nov 29 197 Southern L 72-73 45%    
  Fri, Dec 5 82 @McNeese St. L 59-76 6%    
  Sun, Dec 7 250 @SE Louisiana L 64-69 32%    
  Sat, Dec 13 67 @California L 63-81 5%    
  Mon, Dec 29 199 Lamar L 65-66 46%    
  Wed, Dec 31 139 Stephen F. Austin L 67-72 32%    
  Sat, Jan 3 205 New Orleans L 71-72 46%    
  Mon, Jan 5 270 @Nicholls St. L 67-71 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 226 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-67 51%    
  Mon, Jan 12 202 UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 192 @Incarnate Word L 66-74 24%    
  Mon, Jan 19 276 @Houston Christian L 65-68 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 308 East Texas A&M W 70-66 65%    
  Mon, Jan 26 139 @Stephen F. Austin L 64-75 17%    
  Sat, Jan 31 205 @New Orleans L 68-75 27%    
  Mon, Feb 2 270 Nicholls St. W 70-68 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 308 @East Texas A&M L 67-69 44%    
  Mon, Feb 9 199 @Lamar L 62-69 27%    
  Sat, Feb 14 250 SE Louisiana W 67-66 53%    
  Mon, Feb 16 82 McNeese St. L 62-73 17%    
  Sat, Feb 21 276 Houston Christian W 68-65 59%    
  Mon, Feb 23 192 Incarnate Word L 69-71 44%    
  Sat, Feb 28 226 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65-71 31%    
  Mon, Mar 2 202 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-77 27%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 8 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.5 1.0 0.1 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.3 1.9 0.3 10.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.4 4.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 3.6 4.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.1 4.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 14.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.1 3.9 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 14.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.7 6.4 8.2 10.2 11.5 11.1 11.3 9.9 7.9 6.4 4.1 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
19-3 88.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
18-4 50.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-5 35.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-6 16.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
15-7 4.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-4 0.2% 21.2% 21.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-5 0.4% 23.8% 23.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-6 1.1% 12.1% 12.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-7 1.8% 9.9% 9.9% 15.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.6
14-8 2.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
13-9 4.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0
12-10 6.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 6.4
11-11 7.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.8
10-12 9.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.9
9-13 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
8-14 11.1% 11.1
7-15 11.5% 11.5
6-16 10.2% 10.2
5-17 8.2% 8.2
4-18 6.4% 6.4
3-19 3.7% 3.7
2-20 2.1% 2.1
1-21 0.8% 0.8
0-22 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%