Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -6.2 269
Results Rating -8.0 293
Consistency 0.13 99
Pace 63.9 304
Improvement +5.5 22

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 288 D D+ C C+ D-
Defense C- 228 D+ D- C+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 259 D- 51% 330 -4.2 323
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 50 C+ 39% 121 +3.6 35
Three Pointers 35% 295 C- 32% 255 -3.7 309
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.2 328 D+ -3.1 290
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 312
Second Chance D- 24.1% 334 B- 1.10 89 D+ 0.26 284
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.0% 136
Other Turnovers C- 7.8% 244
Turnovers C 16.8% 182
Freethrows C 0.31 165 B- 74% 117 C+ 0.23 133
Total Offense D+ -4.5 288

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 277 C- 11.8% 228
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 195 B 3.3% 61
Three Pointers D+ 80% 265 D- 1.6% 331
Total D 48% 321 C 5.8% 209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 125 C- 60% 236 +2.1 252
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 237 D- 43% 334 +0.2 204
Three Pointers 40% 198 D+ 36% 268 +0.9 233
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 247 D+ +2.8 291
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 287
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 296 D- 1.15 333 D- 0.38 329
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.3% 123
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 190
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 131
Freethrows D+ 0.34 280 C 72% 166 D+ 0.24 272
Total Defense C- -1.8 228

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 299 D+ 8.5% 273
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 112 D- 1.8% 334
Three Pointers C 84% 180 D+ 0.4% 283
Total C- 58% 228 D 4.0% 311

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.7 317 17.1 148
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 270 0.17 177
Consistency 0.13 235 0.15 346
Improvement -3.5 338 +9.0 1

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 286 268 245
Results Rating Rank 311 283 253
Conference Record 8 - 14 8 - 14 9 - 13
Conference Finish 8 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Away) - 25.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 52 - 12
Quad 47 - 99 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 34 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 3% -19  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 D -5 D C- D+ D -5 B- F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 141 @North Texas L 53 - 80 16% -8  3% 0 - 2 F -23 D- -7 C- F F F -21 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 11 342 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 61% -5  4% 0 - 3 D- -13 D+ -2 C F C F -10 D F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 128 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 14% -15  1% 0 - 4 F+ -15 C- -2 D C D- F -15 F C D-
 Fri, Nov 21 61 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 6% -8  1% 0 - 5 C -1 B +7 A F A- F+ -8 F+ D- C
 Sat, Nov 29 276 Southern L 73 - 75 62% -8  6% 0 - 6 D- -11 D -6 D C+ D+ D -6 F D A-
 Fri, Dec 5 85 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 7% -24  0% 0 - 7 0 - 1 F -28 F -14 D F F+ F -16 F C- B-
 Sun, Dec 7 290 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 44% -3  18% 1 - 7 1 - 1 C+ +3 B +6 C- A+ D- C- -2 C+ D- C-
 Sat, Dec 13 67 @California L 70 - 79 6% -1  38% 1 - 8 C+ +3 B- +4 A- C F C -1 B- F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 220 Lamar L 61 - 76 51% -12  12% 1 - 9 1 - 2 F -21 F -12 F+ F+ D- F -10 F C+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 103 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 24% -7  5% 1 - 10 1 - 3 D -9 D -6 D- F+ A+ D+ -4 D+ B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 193 New Orleans W 74 - 68 45% -5  16% 2 - 10 2 - 3 C +1 C- -0 F A+ C B- +2 B- C+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 253 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 34% -2  30% 2 - 11 2 - 4 C- -4 D+ -4 D- C A- C -0 F+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 46% -7  8% 3 - 11 3 - 4 C- -4 B +7 A A- F+ F -11 F C- F
 Mon, Jan 12 144 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 34% -4  4% 4 - 11 4 - 4 C -1 F+ -9 D- D+ D- A- +8 B- B- A-
 Sat, Jan 17 270 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 76 39% +4  80% 4 - 12 4 - 5 D+ -5 C- -1 B F+ F D -5 C F A-
 Mon, Jan 19 294 @Houston Christian L 80 - 82 45% +4  91% 4 - 13 4 - 6 D+ -7 A+ +23 B A+ B+ F -31 F F C+
 Tue, Jan 27 103 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 69 11% -8  0% 4 - 14 4 - 7 B- +5 D -5 F B- B+ A +11 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 193 @New Orleans L 64 - 75 24% -4  20% 4 - 15 4 - 8 D -10 F+ -10 C- F D+ C -0 C+ F C
 Mon, Feb 2 253 Nicholls St. L 58 - 61 57% -9  9% 4 - 16 4 - 9 D -11 F -15 F B- C B +4 A F B
 Wed, Feb 4 308 East Texas A&M L 68 - 74 70% -0  34% 4 - 17 4 - 10 F -18 D+ -4 B F A F -15 F F+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 308 @East Texas A&M L 48 - 52 48% -6  0% 4 - 18 4 - 11 D -10 F -25 F B F A+ +15 A+ A+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 220 @Lamar W 70 - 68 29% +3  82% 5 - 18 5 - 11 C +2 C +0 D D+ A C+ +1 D A- C
 Sat, Feb 14 290 SE Louisiana W 69 - 66 66% -2  15% 6 - 18 6 - 11 D+ -8 C- -1 C- D- A D- -7 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 85 McNeese St. L 64 - 75 17% -11  0% 6 - 19 6 - 12 D+ -7 D+ -3 D+ F A D -5 B D- F
 Sat, Feb 21 294 Houston Christian W 71 - 53 67% +10  88% 7 - 19 7 - 12 B- +7 D+ -3 F C A+ A+ +11 A D+ A
 Mon, Feb 23 270 Incarnate Word W 54 - 49 62% +0  43% 8 - 19 8 - 12 C- -4 F -19 F F C+ A+ +16 A+ B- B
 Sat, Feb 28 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63 - 70 26%
 Mon, Mar 2 144 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 65 - 75 17%
Totals 8 - 21 8 - 14 -6 D+ -4 B D+ D- C- -2 C- B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D- C+ C- D+ 36% 50% 35% D- D D- B- D+ C C B- C+ C- C- D- D+ D+ 41% 19% 40% D+ D+ D+ D- D- C+ D+ C D+
1.02 51% 39% 32% -3 -1 0.93 24% 1.1 .26 17% .31 74% .23 1.11 60% 43% 36% +3 0 1.09 33% 1.1 .38 17% .34 72% .22
Nov
3		 Texas A&M D F A- B- D 39% 27% 35% C- D C- C C- D+ A- C- B+ D D+ A+ C+ B 43% 7% 50% C- B- F D F C+ D C+ D+
0.90 37% 46% 35% -5 -1 0.90 27% 0.9 .24 21% .35 71% .25 1.30 64% 25% 34% +2 +2 1.10 44% 1.1 .46 16% .36 74% .27
Nov
6		 North Texas D- F A+ F+ B- 16% 41% 44% F C- C+ F F F A+ B A+ F F F F F 38% 14% 48% C F F F F B- F A- D-
0.90 40% 54% 29% 0 -4 0.94 33% 0.3 .10 27% .63 74% .46 1.35 69% 50% 45% +14 +1 1.31 46% 1.3 .58 19% .46 64% .29
Nov
11		 North Alabama D+ B+ C+ C- B- 40% 31% 29% F C F F F C A+ A A+ F B- B+ F+ D+ 51% 15% 34% D- D F F F C- F C F
1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38 1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41
Nov
18		 San Francisco C- F C+ A D 35% 30% 35% D D C+ D C D- A+ D- A+ F D- F F F 38% 3% 60% F F D+ B C D- F C F
1.03 33% 38% 40% -5 -1 0.88 29% 1.0 .29 16% .50 69% .35 1.35 67% 100% 46% +15 +2 1.38 35% 1.0 .35 13% .57 71% .41
Nov
21		 Grand Canyon B A+ A+ D+ A+ 22% 38% 40% F A F D F A- A D- B+ F+ F D- C F+ 40% 17% 43% C- F+ F A- D- C F C- F
1.04 73% 53% 30% +6 -3 1.08 9% 1.0 .09 15% .41 67% .27 1.23 71% 43% 33% +5 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .42 17% .68 77% .53
Nov
29		 Southern D F A+ A+ D- 36% 22% 42% C- D C- B+ C+ D+ F F F D C+ A+ F F+ 56% 14% 30% F F F+ C D A- A A+ A+
1.06 22% 55% 48% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.3 .39 20% .27 67% .18 1.08 54% 14% 53% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 20% .24 54% .13
Dec
5		 McNeese St. F F D+ C D 22% 13% 65% C- D F F F F+ F C- F F F D+ F F 57% 13% 30% F F F A+ C- B- C+ C C+
0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17 1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21
Dec
7		 SE Louisiana B B- D A- C 36% 38% 26% F C- A A+ A+ D- A+ B- A+ C- F B- A+ C+ 35% 28% 37% C+ C+ C+ F D- C- F D+ F
1.15 64% 33% 40% +3 -2 1.03 41% 1.6 .67 23% .53 78% .41 1.03 80% 33% 13% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.2 .32 17% .55 70% .38
Dec
13		 California B- B- D- A+ A+ 26% 28% 46% F A- F A+ C F C- A+ A- C B- A+ F B+ 38% 15% 48% F+ B- D F F A- D D+ D-
1.04 58% 31% 43% +4 -2 1.07 17% 1.6 .28 21% .28 87% .25 1.18 56% 0% 43% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.6 .50 18% .38 81% .31
Dec
29		 Lamar F F A- D- D- 33% 37% 30% F F+ F C- F+ D- A+ D- A F F F C- F 38% 28% 34% F+ F A F C+ B+ B C B
0.92 43% 44% 31% -4 -3 0.88 20% 1.0 .20 20% .53 64% .34 1.15 79% 57% 35% +14 -1 1.28 25% 1.2 .29 20% .19 70% .13
Dec
31		 Stephen F. Austin D D C F D- 48% 20% 32% B- D- F A+ F+ A+ A+ F A- D+ F+ D- A C- 46% 18% 36% F D+ C- A+ B+ C+ F D+ F
0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27 1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25
Jan
3		 New Orleans C- F F+ D+ F 44% 20% 36% C F C- A+ A+ C A+ A A+ B- F F A+ C 23% 33% 44% A+ B- D+ B C+ D A+ F A
1.13 35% 33% 31% -13 +1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 15% .47 81% .38 1.03 75% 47% 22% -1 -3 0.94 37% 0.9 .34 17% .24 85% .20
Jan
5		 Nicholls St. D+ C A+ F F+ 43% 14% 43% C+ D- D- A C A- C+ F+ C- C F D A D- 51% 10% 39% F F+ C A+ A- D+ F A+ F
1.04 62% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.3 .39 17% .37 71% .26 1.07 72% 40% 26% +3 +2 1.12 25% 0.7 .17 14% .52 48% .25
Jan
10		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B C+ B+ A+ A 55% 21% 24% B- A C- A+ A- F+ B+ A- A F F F B- F 40% 26% 34% B F B F+ C- F F B- F
1.16 61% 44% 50% +9 +1 1.21 28% 1.4 .40 24% .46 79% .37 1.15 68% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 26% 1.1 .29 13% .48 64% .31
Jan
12		 UT Rio Grande Valley F+ C F+ F D- 35% 23% 42% C- D- F A- D+ D- A A A+ A- C A B+ B+ 45% 8% 47% F B- A+ F B- A- A F B+
0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34 0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Incarnate Word C- A- A C- B 47% 19% 35% C B F B- F+ F A+ B A+ D A+ F D C- 35% 28% 37% B- C D+ F F A- F F F
1.12 70% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36 1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42
Jan
19		 Houston Christian A+ C+ A+ B B 46% 15% 39% C+ B A+ A- A+ B+ A+ A- A+ F C F F F 41% 13% 46% F+ F F F F C+ F D F
1.44 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 48% 1.3 .61 14% .51 79% .40 1.48 56% 60% 56% +17 +1 1.38 50% 1.4 .68 18% .48 73% .35
Jan
27		 Stephen F. Austin D F F+ C F 43% 31% 26% D F D+ A+ B- B+ F+ D- F A B B+ C+ B+ 30% 36% 34% A A- A+ F C- C+ F+ A- D+
0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15 0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18
Jan
31		 New Orleans F+ F+ A+ F+ C- 40% 26% 34% D C- F F F D+ F B F C A- F+ D+ C+ 43% 25% 32% C- C+ D- F F C F C+ F
0.95 48% 57% 28% -2 -1 0.96 23% 0.8 .17 16% .16 78% .12 1.11 47% 45% 36% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.4 .55 19% .49 74% .37
Feb
2		 Nicholls St. F D F F F 41% 20% 39% C- F D A+ B- C B+ B- B+ B A+ F B A 45% 25% 30% C+ A F C- F B D- F F
0.92 56% 11% 18% -16 0 0.70 29% 1.5 .44 21% .40 80% .32 0.96 35% 45% 31% -10 0 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 19% .33 76% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 East Texas A&M D+ D+ A+ A B+ 40% 25% 35% D- B F A+ F A D- F F F D+ A+ F F 43% 6% 51% F F A+ F F+ C- B F C-
1.08 53% 58% 41% +7 0 1.15 13% 1.5 .19 13% .25 50% .13 1.17 62% 0% 44% +7 +2 1.20 15% 2.0 .31 17% .19 90% .17
Feb
7		 East Texas A&M F F F F F 37% 31% 33% F F C+ B+ B F D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% D- A+ D- A+ A+ D- F C F
0.72 17% 27% 25% -23 -1 0.53 34% 1.3 .43 23% .29 80% .23 0.78 41% 17% 25% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.1 .04 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
9		 Lamar C B D- D D+ 34% 34% 32% F D F A D+ A D+ D D C+ A D F D- 30% 39% 30% B- D B- A+ A- C F D+ F
1.06 65% 29% 31% -2 -2 0.94 22% 1.3 .27 12% .34 65% .22 1.03 43% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 17% .40 73% .29
Feb
14		 SE Louisiana C- B- D+ B C 33% 35% 33% F+ C- F+ C+ D- A C A+ B D- D- F A+ F+ 35% 38% 28% A D F F F A+ F+ C+ D-
1.10 63% 35% 38% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.2 .27 14% .37 85% .32 1.06 64% 53% 18% +1 -2 1.00 46% 1.2 .57 26% .39 67% .26
Feb
16		 McNeese St. D+ A D- F C- 43% 33% 25% D- D+ C F F A A+ A A+ D B C+ C C+ 27% 35% 38% A+ B C- D- D- F C A+ A-
1.01 71% 31% 20% -2 -1 0.95 34% 0.6 .21 20% .54 81% .44 1.18 53% 37% 33% -2 -3 0.93 36% 1.1 .41 8% .29 59% .17
Feb
21		 Houston Christian D+ D+ B- F F+ 40% 35% 25% F F F A+ C A+ B+ A- A- A+ A+ C B- A 39% 25% 36% B- A B+ F D+ A B- B- B-
1.12 58% 41% 25% -2 -2 0.94 23% 1.6 .37 11% .34 79% .27 0.84 35% 36% 31% -11 -1 0.80 24% 1.2 .30 22% .24 67% .16
Feb
23		 Incarnate Word F C F D- F 34% 36% 30% F F F F F C+ C C+ C A+ A- A A+ A+ 40% 24% 36% C- A+ A- C- B- B D B C-
0.90 60% 25% 31% -6 -2 0.86 21% 0.9 .18 15% .37 74% .27 0.82 44% 27% 25% -13 0 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 18% .31 67% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 39.5 32.6 4.9 76.9 7th
8th 23.1 23.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 62.5 32.6 4.9 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.8
9-13 32.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 32.5
8-14 62.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 62.4
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 42.3%