Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.9 #145
Expected Predictive Rating +1.3 #148
Pace 70.3 #147
Improvement +2.2 #72

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #216 C+ D D C- B
Defense #98 B C C F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #63 1.18 #147 +3.2 #77
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #250 0.65 #307 -2.2 #291
Three Pointers 40% #205 1.07 #105 +0.6 #154
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #133 +1.7 #133
Freethrows 17.6 #177 68% #299 12.0 #221
Second Chance 30.9% #179 0.88 #338 0.27 #279
Turnovers 18.7% #302
Total Offense -1.7 #216

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #70 1.07 #77 -0.5 #194
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #221 0.70 #106 +1.1 #111
Three Pointers 38% #251 0.92 #64 +3.2 #63
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #65 +3.8 #65
Freethrows 20.9 #328 76% #324 15.9 #23
Second Chance 29.7% #140 1.06 #212 0.31 #167
Turnovers 17.1% #146
Total Defense +2.6 #98

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #77 1.1% #271
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #156 -8.4% #47
Possession Length 17.6 #204 16.2 #33
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #163 0.20 #269
Improvement +1.4 #101 +0.8 #137

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 26.9% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 88.1% 92.6% 78.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 98.1% 92.0%
Conference Champion 51.3% 59.0% 35.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round24.4% 26.8% 19.2%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 67.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 36 - 46 - 7
Quad 411 - 417 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 77 @Stanford L 79 - 89 19% -6  0 - 1 +0 +2 A+ F F -0 C C- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 103 @San Francisco L 70 - 80 25% -12  0 - 2 -2 +3 D A- F -5 D B- C
 Mon, Nov 17 293 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93 - 80 86% +7  1 - 2 +2 +11 A+ A D- -9 D F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 232 @Utah Tech W 68 - 63 57% +1  2 - 2 +4 -7 F D F +11 B+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 282 @South Dakota W 77 - 71 68% +5  3 - 2 +2 -6 D+ F D+ +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 258 Nebraska Omaha L 55 - 60 81% -2  3 - 3 -13 -13 F D+ F -2 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 17 73 @Colorado L 73 - 84 18% -1  3 - 4 -0 +2 D+ A+ F -2 B+ B- B+
 Sat, Dec 20 158 @Tulane L 61 - 63 42% -3  3 - 5 +1 -6 F C F +7 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 197 @Weber St. W 95 - 90 OT 50% +0  4 - 5 1 - 0 +6 +5 C C- C+ -0 B+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 3 196 @Idaho St. W 93 - 87 OT 50% -5  5 - 5 2 - 0 +7 +13 A+ F A+ -6 D+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 307 Sacramento St. W 96 - 69 88% +14  6 - 5 3 - 0 +15 +14 A+ F C +0 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 174 Northern Colorado W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Jan 17 296 Northern Arizona W 77 - 65 86%
 Thu, Jan 22 255 @Eastern Washington W 77 - 74 62%
 Sat, Jan 24 194 @Idaho W 74 - 73 50%
 Thu, Jan 29 186 Montana W 78 - 72 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 161 Montana St. W 73 - 69 65%
 Mon, Feb 2 196 Idaho St. W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 307 @Sacramento St. W 80 - 74 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 296 @Northern Arizona W 74 - 68 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 174 @Northern Colorado L 74 - 75 47%
 Thu, Feb 19 194 Idaho W 76 - 70 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 255 Eastern Washington W 80 - 71 81%
 Thu, Feb 26 161 @Montana St. L 70 - 72 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 186 @Montana L 74 - 75 48%
 Mon, Mar 2 197 Weber St. W 78 - 72 71%
Totals 16 - 10 13 - 5 +1 -2 C+ D D +3 B C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.7 10.1 13.8 12.1 7.5 3.0 0.7 51.3 1st
2nd 0.2 3.1 7.9 6.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.1 0.3 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.5 4.7 8.0 11.9 15.2 16.9 15.8 12.4 7.5 3.0 0.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 3.0    3.0
16-2 99.9% 7.5    7.4 0.1
15-3 97.7% 12.1    11.2 0.9
14-4 87.3% 13.8    10.1 3.5 0.1
13-5 59.9% 10.1    4.7 4.4 1.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 24.1% 3.7    0.5 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0
11-7 3.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 51.3% 51.3 37.7 10.4 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 61.2% 61.2% 11.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3
17-1 3.0% 46.5% 46.5% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.6
16-2 7.5% 40.7% 40.7% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.8 0.0 4.5
15-3 12.4% 35.8% 35.8% 13.5 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.2 7.9
14-4 15.8% 29.2% 29.2% 13.8 0.1 1.4 2.5 0.7 11.2
13-5 16.9% 24.0% 24.0% 14.1 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.0 0.0 12.8
12-6 15.2% 19.0% 19.0% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.0 0.0 12.3
11-7 11.9% 16.3% 16.3% 14.7 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.1 10.0
10-8 8.0% 11.3% 11.3% 15.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 7.1
9-9 4.7% 10.3% 10.3% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.3
8-10 2.5% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.3
7-11 0.9% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.1 0.8
6-12 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 13.8 75.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.6 41.1 54.4 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%