Houston Baptist
Southland
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.8#353
Expected Predictive Rating-12.6#324
Pace69.4#173
Improvement+0.4#141

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#315
First Shot-5.2#315
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#193
Layup/Dunks-0.5#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#319
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#280
Freethrows+1.7#78
Improvement-0.3#216

Defense
Total Defense-10.4#355
First Shot-6.4#337
After Offensive Rebounds-4.0#343
Layups/Dunks-7.4#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
Freethrows-1.0#247
Improvement+0.7#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.5% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.9% 5.6% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 21.7% 29.6% 20.7%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 40.4% 31.4% 41.6%
First Four1.4% 2.4% 1.2%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 11.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 20 - 5
Quad 45 - 135 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 11   @ Texas L 48-92 0.5%    0 - 1 -25.2 -9.6 -21.3
  Nov 17, 2021 80   @ Texas A&M L 39-73 2%     0 - 2 -24.2 -26.1 +0.9
  Nov 21, 2021 326   @ Denver L 61-74 20%     0 - 3 -19.9 -10.6 -10.2
  Nov 24, 2021 35   @ Oklahoma L 40-57 1%     0 - 4 -2.3 -21.8 +18.1
  Dec 04, 2021 170   Oral Roberts L 74-87 12%    
  Dec 11, 2021 184   Rice L 72-84 13%    
  Dec 21, 2021 226   @ Florida International L 62-78 7%    
  Jan 06, 2022 327   SE Louisiana L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 15, 2022 328   @ McNeese St. L 73-82 22%    
  Jan 20, 2022 350   @ Incarnate Word L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 22, 2022 318   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 68-78 19%    
  Jan 27, 2022 285   New Orleans L 77-83 29%    
  Jan 29, 2022 233   Nicholls St. L 71-80 21%    
  Feb 03, 2022 344   Northwestern St. W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 327   SE Louisiana L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 10, 2022 344   @ Northwestern St. L 75-80 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 327   @ SE Louisiana L 69-78 23%    
  Feb 19, 2022 233   @ Nicholls St. L 68-83 9%    
  Feb 24, 2022 350   Incarnate Word W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 318   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-75 37%    
  Mar 02, 2022 285   @ New Orleans L 74-86 15%    
  Mar 05, 2022 328   McNeese St. L 76-79 42%    
Projected Record 5 - 17 5 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 3.0 1.6 0.4 6.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 4.3 2.2 0.2 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.3 5.8 3.1 0.3 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.9 8.1 4.1 0.3 17.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 5.8 9.2 4.5 0.3 22.1 7th
8th 2.3 6.7 9.4 7.4 3.1 0.2 29.1 8th
Total 2.3 6.9 11.5 13.9 16.4 15.2 12.2 8.9 5.9 3.6 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
12-2 83.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
11-3 67.7% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
10-4 24.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-5 5.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0
13-1 0.1% 31.4% 31.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.2% 20.3% 20.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-3 0.7% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.1 0.7
10-4 2.3% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.3 2.0
9-5 3.6% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.4 3.2
8-6 5.9% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.3 5.6
7-7 8.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 8.8
6-8 12.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-9 15.2% 15.2
4-10 16.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.4
3-11 13.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.9
2-12 11.5% 11.5
1-13 6.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.8
0-14 2.3% 2.3
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%