Texas
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#10
Expected Predictive Rating+18.1#7
Pace70.6#111
Improvement-0.8#283

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#13
First Shot+8.1#12
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#109
Layup/Dunks+3.2#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#205
Freethrows+0.9#104
Improvement+0.0#199

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#26
First Shot+6.8#18
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#182
Layups/Dunks+6.2#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#122
Freethrows+0.4#154
Improvement-0.8#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.8% 7.0% 2.6%
#1 Seed 26.6% 34.7% 18.2%
Top 2 Seed 65.0% 76.5% 53.2%
Top 4 Seed 96.0% 98.8% 93.1%
Top 6 Seed 99.4% 99.9% 98.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.3 2.0 2.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.8% 98.0%
Conference Champion 47.3% 60.9% 33.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round92.2% 93.9% 90.4%
Sweet Sixteen58.4% 60.9% 56.0%
Elite Eight32.3% 35.1% 29.5%
Final Four16.2% 18.0% 14.2%
Championship Game7.8% 8.8% 6.7%
National Champion3.6% 4.2% 3.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 66 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 211 - 7
Quad 23 - 114 - 8
Quad 33 - 017 - 8
Quad 46 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 175   UTEP W 72-57 95%     1 - 0 +12.1 +7.8 +5.3
  Nov 10, 2022 350   Houston Christian W 82-31 99%     2 - 0 +35.7 -0.3 +36.1
  Nov 16, 2022 13   Gonzaga W 93-74 64%     3 - 0 +31.2 +18.3 +11.9
  Nov 21, 2022 293   Northern Arizona W 73-48 97%     4 - 0 +18.0 -5.3 +23.2
  Nov 26, 2022 279   UT Rio Grande Valley W 91-54 98%     5 - 0 +28.0 +4.1 +20.4
  Dec 01, 2022 11   Creighton W 72-67 62%     6 - 0 +17.7 +3.9 +13.6
  Dec 06, 2022 17   Illinois L 78-85 OT 56%     6 - 1 +7.1 +3.4 +4.6
  Dec 10, 2022 331   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 88-43 99%     7 - 1 +32.2 +16.3 +17.8
  Dec 12, 2022 170   Rice W 87-81 OT 95%     8 - 1 +3.3 +0.5 +2.1
  Dec 18, 2022 90   Stanford W 72-62 83%     9 - 1 +15.5 +7.3 +8.9
  Dec 21, 2022 112   Louisiana W 100-72 91%     10 - 1 +28.7 +15.2 +10.6
  Dec 27, 2022 319   Texas A&M - Commerce W 97-72 99%     11 - 1 +13.4 +21.2 -7.2
  Dec 31, 2022 43   @ Oklahoma W 70-69 60%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +14.3 +9.1 +5.2
  Jan 03, 2023 28   Kansas St. L 103-116 71%     12 - 2 1 - 1 -2.9 +20.5 -21.5
  Jan 07, 2023 35   @ Oklahoma St. W 56-46 54%     13 - 2 2 - 1 +24.7 -2.0 +27.3
  Jan 11, 2023 15   TCU W 79-75 65%     14 - 2 3 - 1 +15.9 +10.8 +5.1
  Jan 14, 2023 53   Texas Tech W 72-70 79%     15 - 2 4 - 1 +9.1 +1.8 +7.3
  Jan 17, 2023 22   @ Iowa St. L 67-78 47%     15 - 3 4 - 2 +5.5 +8.6 -3.9
  Jan 21, 2023 23   @ West Virginia W 69-61 48%     16 - 3 5 - 2 +24.3 +1.5 +22.6
  Jan 24, 2023 35   Oklahoma St. W 89-75 74%     17 - 3 6 - 2 +23.2 +19.3 +3.1
  Jan 28, 2023 3   @ Tennessee L 71-82 29%     17 - 4 +10.4 +16.7 -7.0
  Jan 30, 2023 14   Baylor W 76-71 64%     18 - 4 7 - 2 +17.0 +7.3 +9.8
  Feb 04, 2023 28   @ Kansas St. W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 06, 2023 7   @ Kansas L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 11, 2023 23   West Virginia W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 13, 2023 53   @ Texas Tech W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 18, 2023 43   Oklahoma W 74-66 78%    
  Feb 21, 2023 22   Iowa St. W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 25, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 75-77 42%    
  Mar 01, 2023 15   @ TCU L 73-75 43%    
  Mar 04, 2023 7   Kansas W 75-73 58%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 10.0 18.2 12.6 4.7 0.9 47.3 1st
2nd 0.2 5.9 11.4 3.3 0.1 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 8.9 2.6 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.5 4.8 3.6 0.1 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 3.4 0.4 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.2 11.0 19.8 24.2 21.6 12.7 4.7 0.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-3 100.0% 4.7    4.6 0.0
14-4 98.9% 12.6    11.3 1.3 0.0
13-5 84.3% 18.2    10.6 6.6 1.0 0.0
12-6 41.2% 10.0    1.7 4.4 3.0 0.7 0.1
11-7 5.0% 1.0    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.3% 47.3 29.1 12.4 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.9% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 1.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
15-3 4.7% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 1.2 3.6 1.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.7% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 1.4 7.8 4.7 0.2 100.0%
13-5 21.6% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 1.7 8.9 11.1 1.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 24.2% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 2.1 4.4 13.4 6.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 19.8% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 2.7 1.0 7.1 9.3 2.2 0.1 100.0%
10-8 11.0% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 3.4 0.1 1.0 5.2 3.9 0.8 0.1 100.0%
9-9 4.2% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 4.4 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
8-10 1.0% 99.8% 9.9% 89.9% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
7-11 0.1% 90.0% 12.0% 78.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.6%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 2.3 26.6 38.4 22.8 8.2 2.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 89.9 10.1
Lose Out 0.1% 90.0% 10.1 16.0 48.0 26.0