Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.6 #30
Expected Predictive Rating +12.5 #47
Pace 68.2 #199
Improvement +2.7 #71

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #9 B A+ B- A C+
Defense #86 B- B+ D+ C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 1.34 #23 +4.6 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #211 0.90 #33 +0.7 #136
Three Pointers 41% #185 1.03 #172 +0.2 #169
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #45 +5.5 #46
Freethrows 0.40 #4 75% #99 0.30 #4
Second Chance 39.1% #11 1.20 #20 0.47 #5
Turnovers 15.1% #75
Total Offense +11.4 #9

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #191 1.07 #74 +1.7 #117
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #25 0.64 #18 -1.0 #268
Three Pointers 34% #347 1.09 #281 +2.4 #87
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #76 +3.1 #75
Freethrows 0.33 #271 71% #126 0.24 #251
Second Chance 24.3% #14 0.93 #61 0.23 #16
Turnovers 15.4% #268
Total Defense +3.2 #86

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #150 -1.8% #46
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.0% #38 -4.4% #96
Possession Length 16.9 #131 18.0 #295
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #20 0.12 #28
Improvement +2.0 #83 +0.7 #139

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 10.2% 11.9% 3.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.5% 78.0% 56.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.8% 77.3% 55.7%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 9.1
.500 or above 94.5% 97.4% 83.7%
.500 or above in Conference 71.0% 77.9% 44.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.3% 11.4% 15.5%
First Round68.6% 73.3% 50.9%
Second Round37.7% 41.0% 25.2%
Sweet Sixteen10.7% 11.6% 7.1%
Elite Eight3.6% 4.0% 2.3%
Final Four1.0% 1.1% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 26 - 10
Quad 23 - 39 - 13
Quad 32 - 111 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 3 Duke L 60 - 75 20% -5  0 - 1 +9 +2 D- A D +6 A A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 315 Lafayette W 97 - 60 99% +18  1 - 1 +25 +21 C+ A+ B- +5 B+ D A-
 Wed, Nov 12 332 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 58 99% +17  2 - 1 +21 +9 B- B B+ +10 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 360 UMKC W 71 - 55 99% +11  3 - 1 -2 +0 F C A+ -0 A B- F
 Tue, Nov 18 352 Rider W 99 - 65 99% +18  4 - 1 +18 +11 A F A+ +4 B- A- D+
 Mon, Nov 24 73 Arizona St. L 86 - 87 74% +2  4 - 2 +7 +10 A A+ F -3 C B- C-
 Wed, Nov 26 23 North Carolina St. W 102 - 97 43% +4  5 - 2 +22 +33 A+ A+ A+ -11 C D+ F+
 Wed, Dec 3 22 Virginia L 69 - 88 54% -16  5 - 3 -5 +7 C- A+ A+ -13 D+ B F+
 Mon, Dec 8 266 Southern W 95 - 69 98% +17  6 - 3 +17 +17 A- A+ C+ -0 D A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 8 @Connecticut L 63 - 71 18% -6  6 - 4 +16 +7 C- A B- +9 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 296 Le Moyne W 95 - 53 98% +18  7 - 4 +31 +12 B- A+ D +17 A+ B D
 Mon, Dec 22 346 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94 - 71 99% +11  8 - 4 +8 +16 A+ D+ A- -8 D C- F+
 Sat, Jan 3 76 Mississippi St. L 98 - 101 OT 82% -1  8 - 5 0 - 1 +2 +14 B+ A+ B- -12 C F D
 Tue, Jan 6 15 @Tennessee L 71 - 85 27% -11  8 - 6 0 - 2 +7 +12 C+ A+ F -6 D- C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 20 @Alabama W 92 - 88 29% +5  9 - 6 1 - 2 +24 +23 A- A+ A +1 B- A D
 Wed, Jan 14 12 Vanderbilt W 80 - 64 46% +6  10 - 6 2 - 2 +32 +19 A+ A+ D +14 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 27 Texas A&M L 70 - 74 58% -3  10 - 7 2 - 3 +9 +11 C D+ A+ -3 C+ B F
 Wed, Jan 21 26 @Kentucky L 80 - 85 34% -3  10 - 8 2 - 4 +14 +17 C A+ A+ -3 B A- D
 Sat, Jan 24 35 Georgia W 87 - 67 63% +3  11 - 8 3 - 4 +31 +24 A+ A+ C+ +8 A B- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 28 @Auburn L 82 - 88 35% +3  11 - 9 3 - 5 +13 +24 A+ B- B -12 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 57 @Oklahoma W 79 - 69 59% -4  12 - 9 4 - 5 +22 +13 A+ B- F +9 A+ C C
 Tue, Feb 3 87 South Carolina W 84 - 75 86% +1  13 - 9 5 - 5 +12 +15 C- A+ C- -2 B- B+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 60 Mississippi W 80 - 71 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 53 @Missouri W 79 - 78 55%
 Tue, Feb 17 48 LSU W 82 - 76 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 35 @Georgia L 85 - 87 41%
 Wed, Feb 25 7 Florida L 78 - 82 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 27 @Texas A&M L 81 - 85 35%
 Wed, Mar 4 24 @Arkansas L 82 - 87 32%
 Sat, Mar 7 57 Oklahoma W 84 - 76 77%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 9 +15 +11 B A+ B- +3 B- B+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.8 0.2 2.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 1.6 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 1.0 5.2 0.5 6.8 5th
6th 0.2 4.9 4.7 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 9.9 1.5 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 8.5 7.0 0.2 16.6 8th
9th 0.2 5.1 10.8 1.8 17.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.9 7.9 4.0 0.1 13.9 10th
11th 0.4 4.2 3.9 0.5 8.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.3 3.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 0.2 1.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.2 2.2 8.4 18.3 26.4 24.7 14.3 4.7 0.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 33.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.8% 100.0% 6.4% 93.6% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.7% 99.8% 9.0% 90.8% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 14.3% 98.6% 5.8% 92.8% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 4.5 3.9 1.5 0.1 0.2 98.5%
10-8 24.7% 94.7% 3.0% 91.7% 8.2 0.1 0.5 1.3 4.2 7.2 6.4 3.3 0.4 1.3 94.5%
9-9 26.4% 81.4% 1.7% 79.7% 9.6 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.8 4.3 7.6 5.4 0.0 4.9 81.0%
8-10 18.3% 45.1% 1.3% 43.8% 10.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 5.5 0.3 10.0 44.4%
7-11 8.4% 9.2% 0.6% 8.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 7.6 8.6%
6-12 2.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 2.1 0.5%
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 73.5% 2.8% 70.8% 8.5 26.5 72.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 4.1 30.8 38.5 19.2 11.5