Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.1 #48
Expected Predictive Rating +4.5 #107
Pace 70.6 #149
Improvement -1.4 #265

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #24 B- A+ A+ B B-
Defense #98 B- D A- D B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.30 #47 +4.8 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #226 0.86 #63 +0.0 #179
Three Pointers 41% #190 0.96 #247 -1.4 #230
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #92 +3.4 #92
Freethrows 23.5 #4 73% #169 17.2 #4
Second Chance 38.9% #21 1.22 #28 0.47 #8
Turnovers 14.6% #58
Total Offense +8.6 #24

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.11 #116 +0.8 #153
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #23 0.63 #45 -1.0 #258
Three Pointers 33% #350 1.08 #277 +2.7 #86
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #108 +2.5 #104
Freethrows 19.7 #299 74% #236 14.5 #57
Second Chance 25.6% #32 0.93 #60 0.24 #26
Turnovers 14.9% #286
Total Defense +2.5 #98

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #113 -1.7% #54
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.6% #102 -3.1% #122
Possession Length 16.4 #103 18.1 #310
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #7 0.14 #65
Improvement +0.4 #157 -1.8 #296

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 5.2% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 36.3% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.7% 35.4% 15.4%
Average Seed 8.9 8.6 9.1
.500 or above 42.4% 62.5% 38.3%
.500 or above in Conference 20.3% 37.6% 16.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.7% 7.3% 18.5%
First Four4.8% 6.9% 4.4%
First Round17.0% 33.2% 13.8%
Second Round8.8% 18.1% 6.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 4.5% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.6% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 16.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 12
Quad 23 - 37 - 15
Quad 31 - 18 - 16
Quad 47 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 6 Duke L 60-75 18%     -5.1   0 - 1 +6.0 -0.2 +5.5
  Sat, Nov 8 313 Lafayette W 97-60 97%     18.4   1 - 1 +25.2 +20.0 +5.9
  Wed, Nov 12 354 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93-58 99%     16.7   2 - 1 +18.8 +6.8 +10.5
  Sat, Nov 15 333 UMKC W 71-55 98%     11.0   3 - 1 +2.4 +2.7 +1.4
  Tue, Nov 18 348 Rider W 99-65 98%     17.9   4 - 1 +18.6 +14.3 +2.1
  Mon, Nov 24 84 Arizona St. L 86-87 65%     2.2   4 - 2 +6.1 +9.7 -3.5
  Wed, Nov 26 32 North Carolina St. W 102-97 40%     4.1   5 - 2 +18.8 +32.0 -13.4
  Wed, Dec 3 25 Virginia L 69-88 46%     -5.9   5 - 3 -6.8 +5.7 -13.8
  Mon, Dec 8 254 Southern W 95-69 96%     16.8   6 - 3 +17.5 +16.6 +0.3
  Fri, Dec 12 5 @Connecticut L 63-71 11%     -6.4   6 - 4 +16.8 +7.5 +8.9
  Tue, Dec 16 309 Le Moyne W 95-53 97%     18.4   7 - 4 +30.6 +9.6 +18.8
  Mon, Dec 22 342 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94-71 98%     11.1   8 - 4 +8.5 +15.8 -7.5
  Sat, Jan 3 66 Mississippi St. L 98-101 OT 71%     -1.4   8 - 5 0 - 1 +2.5 +12.7 -9.7
  Tue, Jan 6 16 @Tennessee L 71-85 19%     -11.0   8 - 6 0 - 2 +6.3 +12.0 -6.3
  Sat, Jan 10 12 @Alabama L 84-94 17%    
  Wed, Jan 14 8 Vanderbilt L 79-85 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 40 Texas A&M W 85-84 55%    
  Wed, Jan 21 22 @Kentucky L 75-83 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 24 Georgia L 87-88 45%    
  Wed, Jan 28 31 @Auburn L 79-85 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 42 @Oklahoma L 79-83 36%    
  Tue, Feb 3 73 South Carolina W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 69 Mississippi W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 56 @Missouri L 80-81 45%    
  Tue, Feb 17 43 LSU W 80-78 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 24 @Georgia L 84-91 25%    
  Wed, Feb 25 13 Florida L 77-81 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 40 @Texas A&M L 82-87 35%    
  Wed, Mar 4 19 @Arkansas L 80-88 23%    
  Sat, Mar 7 42 Oklahoma W 82-80 58%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 1.0 0.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 1.4 0.1 4.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 3.5 0.4 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.7 1.8 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.3 3.6 3.9 0.3 8.1 10th
11th 0.1 2.0 6.1 1.7 0.0 9.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 5.6 4.1 0.2 10.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 4.0 5.7 1.3 0.0 11.5 13th
14th 0.3 2.7 5.7 2.5 0.2 11.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 11.1 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 8.8 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.6 5.9 9.9 14.5 16.6 16.4 13.2 9.8 5.8 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 44.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 7.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
12-6 1.3% 99.3% 6.7% 92.6% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
11-7 2.8% 97.5% 5.0% 92.6% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 97.4%
10-8 5.8% 88.1% 2.0% 86.2% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.7 87.9%
9-9 9.8% 61.8% 1.4% 60.4% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 1.8 0.0 3.7 61.3%
8-10 13.2% 22.7% 1.3% 21.4% 10.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 0.2 10.2 21.7%
7-11 16.4% 3.3% 0.4% 2.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 15.8 2.9%
6-12 16.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 16.6 0.2%
5-13 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 14.5
4-14 9.9% 9.9
3-15 5.9% 5.9
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 19.4% 0.8% 18.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.3 3.5 3.4 3.9 4.3 0.2 80.6 18.7%