Texas
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#11
Expected Predictive Rating+13.3#39
Pace58.8#353
Improvement-0.1#181

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#18
First Shot+6.9#20
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#92
Layup/Dunks+1.1#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#77
Freethrows+2.1#62
Improvement-0.8#268

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#20
First Shot+6.5#21
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#116
Layups/Dunks+1.4#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#96
Freethrows+0.0#182
Improvement+0.7#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 7.8% 7.8% 2.5%
Top 2 Seed 18.4% 18.5% 2.7%
Top 4 Seed 43.2% 43.4% 18.9%
Top 6 Seed 63.2% 63.5% 27.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.0% 88.1% 75.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.6% 85.7% 74.3%
Average Seed 5.0 4.9 7.0
.500 or above 98.4% 98.5% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.5% 85.6% 78.2%
Conference Champion 20.0% 20.1% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.9% 2.7%
First Four2.3% 2.3% 4.9%
First Round87.1% 87.2% 75.0%
Second Round67.4% 67.6% 51.7%
Sweet Sixteen38.7% 38.9% 15.7%
Elite Eight20.6% 20.7% 5.4%
Final Four9.8% 9.9% 5.1%
Championship Game4.8% 4.8% 2.7%
National Champion2.1% 2.1% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 25 - 112 - 9
Quad 33 - 015 - 9
Quad 48 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 353   Houston Baptist W 92-48 99.5%    1 - 0 +25.2 +19.2 +11.7
  Nov 13, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 74-86 20%     1 - 1 +12.5 +16.3 -4.7
  Nov 17, 2021 175   Northern Colorado W 62-49 95%     2 - 1 +9.3 -7.1 +18.1
  Nov 20, 2021 280   San Jose St. W 79-45 98%     3 - 1 +24.7 -0.8 +25.0
  Nov 24, 2021 217   California Baptist W 68-44 96%     4 - 1 +18.6 -0.3 +22.2
  Nov 29, 2021 218   Sam Houston St. W 73-57 96%     5 - 1 +10.6 +13.0 +0.9
  Dec 03, 2021 286   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-57 99%    
  Dec 09, 2021 28   @ Seton Hall L 65-66 50%    
  Dec 14, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-45 100.0%   
  Dec 19, 2021 95   Stanford W 71-61 83%    
  Dec 22, 2021 184   Rice W 80-60 97%    
  Dec 28, 2021 350   Incarnate Word W 82-49 99.8%   
  Jan 01, 2022 45   West Virginia W 69-60 79%    
  Jan 04, 2022 91   @ Kansas St. W 65-58 73%    
  Jan 08, 2022 32   @ Oklahoma St. W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 11, 2022 35   Oklahoma W 67-60 73%    
  Jan 15, 2022 59   @ Iowa St. W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 18, 2022 91   Kansas St. W 68-55 87%    
  Jan 22, 2022 32   Oklahoma St. W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 25, 2022 90   @ TCU W 67-60 73%    
  Jan 29, 2022 18   Tennessee W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 01, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 63-65 43%    
  Feb 05, 2022 59   Iowa St. W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 07, 2022 9   Kansas W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 12, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 15, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 19, 2022 17   Texas Tech W 66-62 64%    
  Feb 23, 2022 90   TCU W 70-57 87%    
  Feb 26, 2022 45   @ West Virginia W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 28, 2022 3   Baylor W 67-66 51%    
  Mar 05, 2022 9   @ Kansas L 68-72 36%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.7 5.9 5.7 3.5 1.2 0.2 20.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 5.1 7.7 4.8 1.3 0.1 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 6.0 6.3 2.7 0.4 17.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 6.0 5.3 1.8 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 4.3 3.5 0.8 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.4 0.2 4.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.4 5.9 8.7 12.4 14.0 14.0 13.2 11.2 7.0 3.6 1.2 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 97.0% 3.5    2.9 0.6
15-3 81.2% 5.7    4.0 1.6 0.1
14-4 53.0% 5.9    2.6 2.6 0.7 0.0
13-5 20.8% 2.7    0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1
12-6 5.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.0% 20.0 11.6 6.5 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 46.6% 53.4% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.2% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.6% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.6 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.0% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 2.1 2.2 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.2% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 2.6 1.8 3.4 3.5 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.2% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 3.5 0.7 2.1 4.0 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.0% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 4.6 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.8 3.1 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.0% 98.4% 10.6% 87.8% 5.9 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.2 3.3 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.2%
10-8 12.4% 94.4% 8.5% 85.9% 7.2 0.0 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.7 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.7 93.9%
9-9 8.7% 84.1% 7.8% 76.3% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 82.8%
8-10 5.9% 56.5% 5.4% 51.1% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.1 2.6 54.0%
7-11 4.4% 30.0% 4.0% 26.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.1 27.1%
6-12 2.4% 6.2% 1.8% 4.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.4%
5-13 1.1% 2.0% 0.2% 1.8% 13.7 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.8%
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 88.0% 16.9% 71.1% 5.0 7.8 10.6 12.6 12.2 10.4 9.6 8.3 6.1 3.9 3.2 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.0 85.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0