Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.3 27
Expected Predictive Rating +14.1 40
Pace 68.1 195
Improvement +2.9 78

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 6 B+ A+ B A+ C+
Defense B- 88 B A- D+ D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 120 A- 67% 25 +4.9 30
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 217 B+ 45% 35 +1.1 114
Three Pointers 39% 217 C+ 34% 151 -0.5 199
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 166 B+ +5.1 37
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.13 41
Second Chance A- 38.6% 14 A 1.25 9 A+ 0.48 5
Turnovers B 14.8% 64
Freethrows A 0.40 3 B 76% 66 A+ 0.30 3
Total Offense A +12.2 6

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 213 B 8.8% 70
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 322 B 2.9% 48
Three Pointers F+ 74% 346 B 0.4% 62
Total D 48% 318 B 4.3% 45

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 169 B 52% 48 -2.0 106
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 27 B 34% 41 +1.4 300
Three Pointers 34% 351 D+ 35% 251 -2.9 62
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 54 B- -2.6 75
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 65
Second Chance A- 23.9% 11 B 0.94 57 A- 0.22 15
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 291
Freethrows D+ 0.33 279 C+ 72% 145 D+ 0.24 260
Total Defense B- +3.2 88

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 69 C 11.0% 172
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 19% 55 C- 4.1% 228
Three Pointers A+ 68% 2 D+ 0.3% 303
Total A- 45% 13 C 5.5% 182

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 130 18.0 294
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 25 0.12 36
Improvement +2.1 #90 +0.8 #137

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 1% 3% 0%
Top 6 Seed 18% 29% 9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87% 95% 81%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87% 95% 81%
Average Seed 7.9 7.3 8.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 95% 100% 92%
Conference Champion 0% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four6% 2% 10%
First Round85% 94% 77%
Second Round50% 60% 43%
Sweet Sixteen14% 18% 11%
Elite Eight5% 6% 4%
Final Four1% 2% 1%
Championship Game0% 1% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 42.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 9
Quad 23 - 210 - 12
Quad 33 - 112 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 2 Duke L 60 - 75 20% -5  22% 0 - 1 B +9 C +0 D- A F+ A +8 A A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 322 Lafayette W 97 - 60 99% +18  99% 1 - 1 A+ +24 A+ +18 C+ A+ B- B+ +6 B+ D- A
 Wed, Nov 12 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 58 99% +17  87% 2 - 1 A +21 B +7 B B B+ A+ +12 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 360 UMKC W 71 - 55 100% +11  97% 3 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 F C A+ C+ +1 A B- F
 Tue, Nov 18 355 Rider W 99 - 65 99% +18  99% 4 - 1 A- +16 B+ +8 A F A+ B+ +6 B- A- D+
 Mon, Nov 24 63 Arizona St. L 86 - 87 73% +2  77% 4 - 2 B- +8 B+ +8 A A+ F C -0 C- B C-
 Wed, Nov 26 24 North Carolina St. W 102 - 97 48% +4  81% 5 - 2 A +21 A+ +30 A+ A+ A+ F+ -9 C D+ F+
 Wed, Dec 3 22 Virginia L 69 - 88 54% -16  8% 5 - 3 C- -5 B +6 C A+ A+ F -12 D B- F
 Mon, Dec 8 266 Southern W 95 - 69 98% +17  94% 6 - 3 A- +17 A +14 A- A+ C+ B- +3 D A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 12 9 @Connecticut L 63 - 71 24% -6  5% 6 - 4 A- +15 C+ +2 D+ A B- A+ +12 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 296 Le Moyne W 95 - 53 98% +18  99% 7 - 4 A+ +31 A- +10 B A+ D- A+ +19 A+ B- D
 Mon, Dec 22 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94 - 71 99% +11  100% 8 - 4 B- +7 A +12 A D+ B+ D -5 D C- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 69 Mississippi St. L 98 - 101 OT 83% -1  24% 8 - 5 0 - 1 C+ +2 A- +11 B+ A+ B F+ -8 C+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 16 @Tennessee L 71 - 85 27% -11  4% 8 - 6 0 - 2 B- +8 A- +10 C+ A+ F C- -3 D- C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 19 @Alabama W 92 - 88 28% +5  86% 9 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +21 A- A+ A B +4 B A D
 Wed, Jan 14 14 Vanderbilt W 80 - 64 48% +6  88% 10 - 6 2 - 2 A+ +32 A+ +16 A+ A D- A+ +17 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 35 Texas A&M L 70 - 74 65% -3  28% 10 - 7 2 - 3 B- +7 B+ +7 C D A+ C -1 C+ B F
 Wed, Jan 21 25 @Kentucky L 80 - 85 37% -3  18% 10 - 8 2 - 4 B+ +14 A +14 C A+ A+ C -0 B+ A D-
 Sat, Jan 24 37 Georgia W 87 - 67 66% +3  46% 11 - 8 3 - 4 A+ +31 A+ +20 A+ A+ B- A+ +12 A B A
 Wed, Jan 28 33 @Auburn L 82 - 88 42% +3  66% 11 - 9 3 - 5 B+ +11 A+ +19 A+ B- B- F+ -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 51 @Oklahoma W 79 - 69 57% -4  16% 12 - 9 4 - 5 A+ +24 A- +10 A+ B- F A+ +14 A+ C C
 Tue, Feb 3 94 South Carolina W 84 - 75 88% +1  53% 13 - 9 5 - 5 B+ +12 A +13 C- A+ C C -1 C+ B+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 73 Mississippi W 79 - 68 83% +6  76% 14 - 9 6 - 5 A- +16 A +14 B- A+ B B- +3 A- B+ F+
 Sat, Feb 14 49 @Missouri W 85 - 68 55% +3  59% 15 - 9 7 - 5 A+ +31 A+ +22 A A+ A+ A +11 A+ D+ F+
 Tue, Feb 17 54 LSU W 88 - 85 78% +6  73% 16 - 9 8 - 5 B +10 A+ +16 A A+ A D -6 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 37 @Georgia L 86 - 88 43%
 Wed, Feb 25 4 Florida L 78 - 83 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 35 @Texas A&M L 83 - 85 42%
 Wed, Mar 4 17 @Arkansas L 82 - 88 28%
 Sat, Mar 7 51 Oklahoma W 86 - 78 76%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 8 +15 A +12 B B+ C+ B- +3 C+ B A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A- B+ C+ B+ 41% 35% 39% C+ B+ A- A A+ B A B A+ B- B B D+ B- 39% 28% 34% B B A- B A- D+ D+ C+ D+
1.26 67% 45% 34% +5 0 1.13 39% 1.2 .48 15% .40 76% .30 1.04 52% 34% 35% -3 -1 0.95 24% 0.9 .22 15% .33 72% .29
Nov
4		 Duke C F F B F+ 40% 29% 31% C D- A+ C+ A F+ A+ B A+ A B A+ F A 46% 13% 41% B A A A+ A+ C- F C- F
0.90 33% 23% 36% -13 -1 0.73 41% 0.8 .32 24% .45 74% .34 1.13 57% 0% 42% 0 +1 1.04 32% 0.7 .24 15% .53 73% .39
Nov
8		 Lafayette A+ B B+ C- C+ 38% 21% 40% C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ B+ A C+ B B+ 38% 26% 36% A- B+ C- F D- A D+ B C-
1.41 65% 45% 33% +4 0 1.10 52% 1.7 .87 13% .48 76% .37 0.87 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 22% .32 65% .20
Nov
12		 Fairleigh Dickinson B A+ A+ F B- 50% 10% 40% A B A D+ B B+ A+ F B+ A+ A+ C- B- A- 41% 17% 41% D B+ A+ A+ A+ F A- A A
1.27 81% 60% 24% +7 +2 1.21 39% 0.9 .34 12% .53 56% .30 0.79 38% 40% 29% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.3 .06 12% .20 62% .12
Nov
15		 UMKC D+ C F F F 47% 12% 41% B F A- F+ C A+ A+ F A+ C+ B D+ A+ B+ 29% 48% 23% A+ A B B- B- F A+ F+ A
1.13 61% 17% 15% -13 +2 0.80 44% 0.8 .37 8% .48 61% .29 0.87 50% 41% 8% -10 -4 0.73 24% 0.8 .20 10% .14 75% .11
Nov
18		 Rider B+ A+ A+ C+ A 39% 9% 53% C A F C- F A+ A+ D A+ B+ A+ B- C- C+ 25% 43% 32% A+ B- A+ C+ A- D+ D+ F F
1.32 82% 60% 37% +13 +2 1.32 18% 1.0 .18 8% .49 65% .32 0.87 36% 33% 33% -8 -4 0.79 21% 0.9 .19 16% .29 89% .25
Nov
24		 Arizona St. B+ A+ F F A 57% 11% 33% A+ A A A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C C- A+ F D+ 39% 24% 37% B- C- A+ F B C- F D+ F
1.15 81% 0% 27% +5 +3 1.17 41% 1.5 .63 25% .48 74% .36 1.16 61% 9% 53% +5 0 1.11 21% 1.7 .34 15% .56 78% .44
Nov
26		 North Carolina St. A+ A A+ A+ A+ 26% 11% 64% C A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F+ A+ F C- 44% 25% 31% B+ C A- F D+ F+ F B+ F+
1.42 67% 60% 47% +17 0 1.36 23% 2.0 .46 10% .51 85% .43 1.35 71% 21% 47% +7 0 1.16 24% 1.8 .42 8% .42 71% .30
Dec
3		 Virginia B C+ F F D+ 44% 22% 34% A- C B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ F D+ A+ F D- 40% 15% 46% C+ D A+ F B- F F B- F
1.06 55% 27% 24% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 11% .43 68% .29 1.35 63% 29% 45% +9 +1 1.21 24% 1.7 .41 11% .50 69% .34
Dec
8		 Southern A B+ B A+ A- 42% 16% 42% B- A- B A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B- C B F D- 46% 32% 22% C- D C A+ A+ B+ F B+ F+
1.33 67% 43% 44% +11 +1 1.26 38% 1.6 .58 18% .55 91% .50 0.96 57% 31% 45% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.3 .08 20% .43 64% .28
Dec
12		 Connecticut C+ F C- D- D+ 44% 31% 24% D+ D+ A+ B- A B- A+ D A+ A+ F D+ D D- 43% 28% 28% A D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+
0.95 40% 36% 27% -11 -1 0.78 37% 1.0 .37 18% .52 68% .35 1.07 75% 46% 38% +12 -1 1.24 28% 1.0 .28 23% .25 54% .14
Dec
16		 Le Moyne A- C+ A+ D- B- 41% 6% 54% A- B A+ B A+ D- A- C B+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 29% 38% 33% A+ A+ B- B B- D D- D D-
1.29 59% 100% 31% +2 +2 1.09 49% 1.2 .57 18% .38 74% .28 0.72 40% 30% 12% -19 -3 0.58 22% 0.9 .20 18% .38 74% .28
Dec
22		 Maryland Eastern Shore A A A+ B A+ 43% 17% 40% C+ A A F D+ B+ A+ C A+ D C+ C- D D 50% 21% 29% F+ D A F C- D- F C F
1.33 70% 63% 37% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.8 .31 13% .68 74% .50 1.01 54% 40% 36% -1 +1 1.02 22% 1.3 .28 20% .37 71% .27
Jan
3		 Mississippi St. A- A+ B+ F A- 28% 32% 40% C- B+ B A+ A+ B A+ C- A+ F+ C- B+ C- B- 32% 20% 48% C- C+ F D F D+ F D- F
1.19 81% 44% 22% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.4 .43 12% .55 73% .40 1.23 63% 33% 34% +1 0 1.03 41% 1.1 .46 13% .43 74% .32
Jan
6		 Tennessee A- F A+ B- C 34% 14% 52% B C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ F D- 50% 18% 32% D+ D- D+ B- C+ B- F C- F
1.06 33% 50% 35% -6 +1 0.91 41% 1.4 .57 24% .39 80% .31 1.27 73% 25% 43% +9 +1 1.23 48% 1.0 .48 19% .54 72% .39
Jan
10		 Alabama A+ D+ F+ A+ A 31% 27% 42% C- A- A+ A A+ A A+ C+ A+ B A+ A+ F B 41% 17% 43% B- B B A+ A D F A- D
1.29 50% 29% 45% +2 -1 1.04 42% 1.1 .47 10% .50 69% .34 1.23 45% 33% 48% +3 +1 1.09 30% 0.9 .28 10% .42 70% .29
Jan
14		 Vanderbilt A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 24% 38% C+ A+ A+ C- A D- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A F A 27% 33% 40% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A- B+ A
1.21 63% 60% 44% +13 0 1.26 44% 0.9 .40 23% .43 86% .37 0.97 43% 29% 43% -2 -2 0.94 24% 0.4 .10 15% .27 73% .20
Jan
17		 Texas A&M B+ B+ C D- C+ 30% 28% 43% D- C B- F D A+ A+ B+ A+ C B F D- B- 55% 6% 38% D- C+ A+ F B F C- A+ B
1.13 64% 38% 30% -1 -2 0.98 31% 0.6 .20 13% .48 77% .37 1.19 54% 67% 39% +2 +3 1.13 19% 1.5 .28 10% .34 63% .21
Jan
21		 Kentucky A A+ B F C 41% 31% 28% C C A A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C C F B C+ 27% 40% 33% A+ B+ C- A+ A D- F F F
1.16 73% 41% 7% -4 -1 0.91 36% 1.2 .44 12% .33 90% .29 1.23 62% 47% 31% +3 -3 1.02 38% 0.8 .32 12% .57 86% .49
Jan
24		 Georgia A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 33% 35% 31% F A+ A+ A+ A+ B- D+ A- C A+ C- A+ B+ A+ 43% 18% 39% B- A B B- B A F A F
1.32 82% 56% 31% +13 -2 1.24 44% 1.4 .60 18% .22 75% .17 1.02 63% 13% 29% -5 +1 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 20% .47 68% .32
Jan
28		 Auburn A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 16% 53% B- A+ C+ B+ B- B- A+ B+ A+ F+ B- F F F 39% 12% 49% C- F A+ B- A+ F F C+ F
1.29 57% 71% 46% +14 0 1.31 29% 1.1 .33 17% .44 78% .34 1.38 56% 60% 50% +14 +1 1.32 24% 1.0 .24 5% .64 74% .48
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Oklahoma A- A+ A+ B A+ 37% 22% 41% C+ A+ F+ A+ B- F C C C A+ A+ F+ A A+ 25% 27% 48% A+ A+ A F C C B A+ A
1.18 82% 60% 37% +16 0 1.33 22% 1.6 .35 21% .28 73% .21 1.03 38% 50% 28% -6 -2 0.87 27% 1.6 .43 13% .28 63% .17
Feb
3		 South Carolina A C+ F+ C C 32% 30% 38% D C- A+ A A+ C A+ A+ A+ C F A+ A+ C+ 51% 29% 20% C+ C+ A+ D B+ C F C+ F
1.23 60% 29% 33% -3 -2 0.94 47% 1.2 .56 16% .63 81% .51 1.10 80% 21% 10% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.2 .24 15% .41 79% .33
Feb
7		 Mississippi A C- A+ F B 34% 39% 27% F+ B- B- A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B- B+ F A+ B+ 17% 38% 44% A- A- B+ B B+ F+ C C- C
1.24 53% 53% 25% 0 -3 0.98 33% 2.2 .74 16% .43 87% .37 1.07 56% 50% 26% -1 -4 0.92 25% 1.0 .25 9% .30 76% .23
Feb
14		 Missouri A+ A+ F+ B A+ 35% 33% 31% D+ A A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ 55% 23% 23% C A+ A+ F D+ F+ F C F
1.32 83% 29% 38% +8 -2 1.14 44% 1.0 .44 11% .40 91% .37 1.05 45% 22% 33% -11 +1 0.83 27% 1.8 .47 14% .68 68% .47
Feb
17		 LSU A+ B- D+ A+ A+ 44% 27% 29% C A C A+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ D A- F F D 53% 29% 17% B- D+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F B-
1.28 60% 33% 54% +8 0 1.18 29% 1.9 .54 12% .56 68% .38 1.24 52% 59% 50% +7 0 1.16 21% 0.6 .12 7% .30 84% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 1.2 3.3 2nd
3rd 1.1 4.9 0.3 6.3 3rd
4th 0.1 6.7 2.9 9.7 4th
5th 2.1 12.5 0.5 15.1 5th
6th 0.1 10.6 6.3 0.0 16.9 6th
7th 2.3 14.5 0.8 17.6 7th
8th 0.1 8.0 6.1 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 1.1 8.7 0.8 10.6 9th
10th 2.6 2.5 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.9 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 4.8 21.6 34.2 27.4 10.3 1.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 12.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.7% 99.7% 7.3% 92.4% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 10.3% 99.7% 7.9% 91.8% 6.1 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.7 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 99.7%
11-7 27.4% 98.1% 4.6% 93.5% 7.1 0.2 1.8 5.4 10.5 6.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.5 98.0%
10-8 34.2% 91.5% 2.2% 89.3% 8.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.8 10.1 8.4 4.2 0.9 2.9 91.3%
9-9 21.6% 71.3% 1.6% 69.7% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.2 5.0 0.0 6.2 70.8%
8-10 4.8% 31.6% 1.2% 30.5% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 3.3 30.8%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 87.1% 3.3% 83.7% 7.9 12.9 86.6%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.1 24.0 48.0 20.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 4.6 9.1 34.5 47.3 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 5.1 3.8 19.8 42.5 32.1 1.9
Lose Out 2.1% 4.9% 11.3 3.5 1.4