Oklahoma
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.1 54
Expected Predictive Rating +8.3 68
Pace 68.5 193
Improvement -1.5 257

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ #39 B- A B+ C+ C+
Defense C+ #116 B- C C- C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 202 60% 119 +0.3 163
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 272 45% 29 -0.5 205
Three Pointers 46% 70 35% 112 +3.8 59
1st FG Attempt 1.09 78 +3.6 76
Second Chance 34.4% 75 1.29 4 0.44 15
Turnovers 13.7% 26
Freethrows 0.31 179 75% 101 0.23 139
Total Offense +8.2 39

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 281 53% 54 +3.9 57
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 55 36% 98 -1.1 277
Three Pointers 40% 218 36% 261 -0.5 204
1st FG Attempt 0.97 106 +2.2 106
Second Chance 30.1% 165 1.02 182 0.31 175
Turnovers 16.4% 209
Freethrows 0.29 122 74% 273 0.21 148
Total Defense +1.9 116

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 121 -0.8 58
Shot Type Accuracy +3.0 79 -1.4 124
Possession Length 16.5 94 18.3 321
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 193 0.08 6
Improvement -2.0 #296 +0.5 #152

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 5.8% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 5.7% 1.0%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 10.9
.500 or above 28.7% 45.7% 16.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.7% 12.9% 35.4%
First Four2.3% 4.3% 0.9%
First Round2.0% 3.7% 0.6%
Second Round0.7% 1.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia (Home) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 53 - 11
Quad 24 - 66 - 17
Quad 32 - 08 - 17
Quad 47 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 356 St. Francis (PA) W 102 - 66 99% +11  90% 1 - 0 A +19 A +12 B- A+ A- B +5 B C C
 Sat, Nov 8 13 @Gonzaga L 68 - 83 14% -13  9% 1 - 1 B- +7 C -0 C C+ C- A- +8 B+ A F+
 Tue, Nov 11 312 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 95 - 69 97% +9  87% 2 - 1 B+ +14 A +13 B A+ B C+ +1 B- D B+
 Sat, Nov 15 15 Nebraska L 99 - 105 21% +3  67% 2 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +31 A+ A+ A+ F -19 F A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 338 Oral Roberts W 95 - 71 98% +19  97% 3 - 2 B +10 A +12 C- A+ A+ C- -3 B- F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 351 Alcorn St. W 72 - 53 98% +5  70% 4 - 2 C+ +3 F -11 F F A+ A+ +14 C A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 85 Marquette W 75 - 74 63% -4  17% 5 - 2 B- +8 A +12 B+ A+ A+ D+ -4 C- A- F
 Tue, Dec 2 72 @Wake Forest W 86 - 68 47% +4  62% 6 - 2 A+ +29 A +13 A A+ A A+ +15 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 68 Arizona St. L 70 - 86 57% -16  4% 6 - 3 D+ -8 D -5 F B- B+ C- -2 C- F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 59 Oklahoma St. W 85 - 76 53% +4  73% 7 - 3 A +18 A- +11 B B- A+ B+ +7 A A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 357 UMKC W 89 - 67 99% +19  96% 8 - 3 C+ +4 B+ +8 D A A+ C- -3 C- D+ B+
 Mon, Dec 22 333 Stetson W 107 - 54 98% +25  99% 9 - 3 A+ +39 A+ +27 A+ A+ B+ A+ +14 A+ C- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 365 Mississippi Valley W 93 - 69 100% +9  75% 10 - 3 C- -3 A+ +20 A+ A+ A- F -19 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 3 61 Mississippi W 86 - 70 65% +5  81% 11 - 3 1 - 0 A +22 A+ +18 A+ A A+ B +5 B+ B+ D
 Wed, Jan 7 79 @Mississippi St. L 53 - 72 50% -5  17% 11 - 4 1 - 1 D -9 F -13 F C- F B- +3 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 29 @Texas A&M L 76 - 83 23% -1  35% 11 - 5 1 - 2 B +11 B+ +8 C A+ F+ B- +3 B A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 13 4 Florida L 79 - 96 18% -16  1% 11 - 6 1 - 3 C+ +3 A +13 A A+ C+ F+ -10 C F F
 Sat, Jan 17 19 Alabama L 81 - 83 33% +2  56% 11 - 7 1 - 4 B+ +13 C+ +3 D+ A+ B A- +9 A B- B
 Tue, Jan 20 93 @South Carolina L 76 - 85 56% -8  0% 11 - 8 1 - 5 C -1 C+ +3 C- A+ C C- -3 D B B
 Sat, Jan 24 49 @Missouri L 87 - 88 OT 36% +0  50% 11 - 9 1 - 6 B+ +13 A- +11 A+ F B- C+ +2 A+ D+ D
 Tue, Jan 27 17 Arkansas L 79 - 83 32% +2  59% 11 - 10 1 - 7 B +11 A- +9 B+ A- C+ C+ +2 B+ C D-
 Sat, Jan 31 32 Texas L 69 - 79 44% +4  76% 11 - 11 1 - 8 C+ +2 C- -1 D A+ B B- +3 F A A+
 Wed, Feb 4 25 @Kentucky L 78 - 94 19% -8  11% 11 - 12 1 - 9 C+ +3 A+ +17 A- C A+ F -15 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 14 @Vanderbilt W 92 - 91 14% +13  99% 12 - 12 2 - 9 A +23 A+ +20 A+ A+ C+ C+ +2 A F A-
 Sat, Feb 14 30 Georgia L 84 - 86 43%
 Wed, Feb 18 16 @Tennessee L 69 - 80 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 29 Texas A&M L 81 - 83 43%
 Tue, Feb 24 28 Auburn L 80 - 82 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 56 @LSU L 77 - 80 41%
 Tue, Mar 3 49 Missouri W 79 - 77 58%
 Sat, Mar 7 32 @Texas L 77 - 85 23%
Totals 15 - 16 5 - 13 +10 B+ +8 B- A B+ C+ +2 B- C C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ C+ B+ C+ B- 38% 16% 46% C+ B- B- A+ A B+ C B- C+ C+ B B- D+ C+ 35% 25% 40% B B- C C C C- C+ D+ C+
1.20 60% 45% 35% +3 0 1.09 34% 1.3 .44 14% .31 75% .23 1.06 53% 36% 36% -1 -1 0.97 30% 1.0 .31 16% .29 74% .23
Nov
3		 St. Francis (PA) A B+ A+ D+ C 57% 2% 41% A+ B- B+ A+ A+ A- F+ C F+ B D- A+ B- B- 34% 38% 28% A B D B+ C C A C A-
1.38 70% 100% 33% +7 +4 1.24 40% 1.4 .57 15% .29 72% .21 0.89 65% 23% 31% -4 -3 0.88 30% 0.8 .25 19% .17 70% .12
Nov
8		 Gonzaga C B- A F C 24% 26% 50% C C C- B+ C+ C- B- A+ A A- B- F+ B+ A 48% 20% 33% F B+ C A+ A F+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 58% 46% 24% -5 -2 0.88 22% 1.0 .22 22% .31 89% .28 1.12 59% 50% 30% +1 +1 1.05 37% 0.9 .33 9% .16 45% .07
Nov
11		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A C B- B B- 38% 10% 52% B- B A+ A- A+ B C+ C+ B- C+ B- B C+ B- 31% 30% 39% B B- F B+ D B+ B- D- C+
1.36 60% 40% 37% +3 +1 1.12 53% 1.3 .69 13% .39 75% .30 0.99 53% 31% 33% -4 -2 0.91 36% 0.9 .31 22% .27 80% .22
Nov
15		 Nebraska A+ A+ A+ A A+ 23% 16% 61% A- A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F 42% 9% 49% D+ F C A+ A+ F F D+ F
1.38 77% 56% 38% +11 -1 1.23 29% 1.4 .42 14% .34 90% .31 1.47 77% 20% 58% +24 +2 1.53 28% 0.5 .14 7% .42 79% .33
Nov
20		 Oral Roberts A B- B D- C 43% 22% 34% D C- C A+ A+ A+ C+ C- C C- A B C- C 30% 26% 45% A B- F F F A+ C+ F C-
1.35 60% 46% 30% +1 0 1.03 32% 1.8 .57 4% .34 70% .24 1.01 43% 33% 33% -6 -1 0.87 37% 1.4 .51 26% .29 80% .23
Nov
23		 Alcorn St. F F F F F 32% 13% 55% D F C- F F A+ A+ D- A- A+ B A+ F C- 34% 30% 36% B C B+ A+ A+ A+ A- A- A-
1.05 47% 14% 28% -12 0 0.79 37% 0.9 .33 10% .45 68% .31 0.77 50% 21% 47% -1 -1 0.98 20% 0.3 .06 28% .16 63% .10
Nov
28		 Marquette A A+ F B+ B+ 35% 19% 46% C- B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F F F D+ A+ F F+ D+ 41% 14% 45% A- C- F A+ A- F B+ D- B-
1.19 72% 20% 38% +4 0 1.10 32% 1.5 .48 13% .16 67% .11 1.17 43% 71% 39% +2 +1 1.08 41% 0.5 .21 8% .26 73% .19
Dec
2		 Wake Forest A A A+ C+ A 43% 13% 45% B A A A- A+ A A+ C A+ A+ A+ B+ A A+ 27% 22% 51% A- A+ A+ A+ A+ B- F D F
1.19 70% 50% 33% +6 +1 1.17 40% 1.2 .48 17% .58 74% .43 0.94 43% 36% 27% -10 -1 0.80 22% 0.9 .20 17% .45 81% .37
Dec
6		 Arizona St. D F A+ F F 42% 4% 55% A+ F C+ B B- B+ A+ F B+ C- A+ A+ F C 40% 11% 49% F+ C- B+ F F C+ F A F
0.96 41% 50% 24% -15 +2 0.77 33% 1.1 .37 18% .44 62% .27 1.18 42% 0% 52% +3 +1 1.11 28% 1.9 .53 16% .56 68% .38
Dec
13		 Oklahoma St. A- D B+ A B+ 33% 16% 51% C- B C+ B B- A+ B A+ A- B+ A+ D- C- A 43% 20% 37% A- A A+ A+ A+ F A+ F+ A-
1.18 50% 44% 39% +3 0 1.07 30% 1.2 .35 12% .32 80% .25 1.05 42% 42% 36% -5 0 0.93 22% 0.7 .16 7% .24 81% .19
Dec
16		 UMKC B+ B+ B F D- 44% 12% 44% B D B- A+ A A+ B- F C- C- A+ A+ F C- 36% 26% 38% D+ C- B- F D+ B+ F D- F
1.27 69% 43% 23% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .51 11% .31 58% .18 0.95 41% 25% 44% -3 -1 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 23% .41 73% .29
Dec
22		 Stetson A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 45% 12% 43% B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A D B+ A+ F D A+ A+ 16% 34% 50% A+ A+ C D C- B- A- D- B
1.57 87% 33% 55% +26 +2 1.57 39% 1.7 .65 12% .37 68% .25 0.79 75% 41% 12% -13 -3 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 21% .22 75% .17
Dec
29		 Mississippi Valley A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 23% 15% 62% D+ A+ A A+ A+ A- F+ C+ D- F A+ D F F 33% 35% 33% D- F C- F D- F D F F+
1.52 73% 71% 45% +19 0 1.38 46% 1.5 .69 13% .32 76% .24 1.12 40% 44% 53% +6 -2 1.09 25% 1.1 .29 16% .31 81% .25
Jan
3		 Mississippi A+ B- A+ A A+ 40% 13% 47% A A+ C- A+ A A+ C C C B A+ A F A- 22% 35% 43% B- B+ A- C B+ D D+ B+ C
1.28 57% 57% 40% +7 +1 1.17 28% 1.6 .44 10% .32 68% .22 1.04 45% 28% 41% -2 -3 0.92 24% 1.1 .27 10% .33 70% .23
Jan
7		 Mississippi St. F F C F F 22% 39% 39% F+ F B F C- F A+ F A+ B- C C A+ A+ 33% 37% 30% A+ A+ F D F D+ F D+ F
0.81 40% 39% 17% -14 -4 0.67 31% 0.8 .24 20% .48 64% .30 1.10 60% 41% 14% -7 -3 0.83 44% 1.1 .49 14% .49 71% .35
Jan
10		 Texas A&M B+ F+ C B C 30% 16% 54% C+ C A+ A A+ F+ C+ A B B- C+ F+ C B- 36% 15% 49% A- B B- A+ A+ D- F+ F F
1.08 47% 38% 37% -1 0 1.00 44% 1.1 .50 24% .30 81% .24 1.18 58% 50% 35% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.6 .18 11% .40 84% .34
Jan
13		 Florida A F F A+ A 38% 30% 32% C+ A A A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ F+ F C A+ C- 46% 21% 32% A- C D+ F F F B+ D+ B
1.12 37% 27% 63% +2 -1 1.04 30% 1.1 .32 16% .40 71% .28 1.36 77% 42% 22% +4 0 1.11 46% 1.3 .59 10% .30 74% .22
Jan
17		 Alabama C+ D C- D- D+ 33% 30% 37% C- D+ A A A+ B B+ A+ A+ A- D+ A+ B+ A 33% 17% 50% B+ A C+ B B- B F+ A+ C+
1.08 47% 35% 29% -7 -2 0.84 37% 1.1 .41 12% .33 86% .29 1.11 67% 33% 30% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.1 .36 15% .41 58% .23
Jan
20		 South Carolina C+ A- B+ F D+ 40% 17% 42% B C- C+ A+ A+ C A A- A+ C- B B F D- 40% 22% 38% C+ D C+ B+ B B F C+ F
1.06 67% 44% 18% -5 +1 0.92 31% 1.4 .44 15% .36 77% .28 1.18 55% 36% 47% +6 0 1.14 28% 0.9 .25 17% .47 79% .37
Jan
24		 Missouri A- D- A+ A+ A+ 21% 30% 49% D- A+ F F F B- A+ B- A+ C+ A D B+ A+ 41% 22% 37% B A+ D- B- D+ D F D- F
1.15 45% 56% 46% +12 -3 1.21 17% 0.6 .10 16% .47 77% .36 1.17 50% 42% 30% -5 0 0.93 41% 1.1 .46 16% .52 73% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Arkansas A- F+ A+ B- B 46% 11% 43% A B+ B- A A- C+ D+ A+ B- C+ F F A+ A- 50% 21% 29% D+ B+ A+ F C D- A+ F A
1.15 46% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 31% 1.5 .46 17% .21 92% .19 1.20 76% 50% 12% +2 +1 1.07 23% 1.9 .43 9% .21 85% .17
Jan
31		 Texas C- F A+ F D 25% 27% 48% D D B- A+ A+ B D- F F+ B- F F D F 37% 22% 41% B- F A+ F A A+ A+ B- A+
1.03 38% 50% 28% -6 -2 0.87 27% 1.6 .43 13% .28 63% .17 1.18 82% 60% 37% +16 0 1.33 22% 1.6 .35 21% .28 73% .21
Feb
4		 Kentucky A+ A F+ B- A- 28% 13% 59% B+ A- F+ A+ C A+ B- A+ A F C C+ F F 27% 29% 44% A+ D- F+ F+ F F F F F
1.19 67% 29% 34% +2 0 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 9% .32 89% .29 1.44 62% 36% 52% +12 -2 1.23 42% 1.4 .58 9% .45 81% .37
Feb
7		 Vanderbilt A+ A A+ C- A+ 44% 23% 33% B A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ C+ A- A- D A 28% 28% 45% A+ A D- F F A- F D- F
1.24 67% 55% 31% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.6 .53 19% .48 72% .35 1.23 54% 31% 38% 0 -2 0.98 38% 1.9 .72 18% .51 84% .42



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.1 3.5 9.2 2.8 0.1 15.7 12th
13th 0.1 4.4 14.3 6.5 0.4 25.7 13th
14th 2.3 12.8 8.3 0.8 24.3 14th
15th 0.7 8.8 8.5 1.0 0.0 19.0 15th
16th 3.2 5.1 0.9 0.0 9.3 16th
Total 3.9 16.3 26.7 27.1 17.5 6.6 1.7 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-10 1.7% 58.1% 2.3% 55.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 57.1%
7-11 6.6% 20.6% 0.2% 20.4% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.1 5.3 20.5%
6-12 17.5% 2.8% 0.1% 2.6% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 17.0 2.6%
5-13 27.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 27.0 0.4%
4-14 26.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 26.7
3-15 16.3% 16.3
2-16 3.9% 3.9
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 0.1% 3.0% 10.7 96.9 3.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.9%