Oklahoma
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#41
Expected Predictive Rating+10.4#48
Pace63.1#312
Improvement+0.9#72

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#44
First Shot+8.6#7
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#349
Layup/Dunks+8.0#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#83
Freethrows-1.0#255
Improvement+0.5#88

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#49
First Shot+4.3#59
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#104
Layups/Dunks-2.3#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#19
Freethrows+1.2#94
Improvement+0.4#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 6.0% 8.6% 2.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.6% 46.8% 26.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.0% 43.4% 22.9%
Average Seed 9.1 8.8 9.8
.500 or above 62.3% 74.4% 44.8%
.500 or above in Conference 7.5% 11.1% 2.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.3% 12.0% 27.5%
First Four10.9% 11.8% 9.6%
First Round33.6% 41.3% 22.4%
Second Round17.4% 22.1% 10.6%
Sweet Sixteen6.5% 8.5% 3.7%
Elite Eight2.6% 3.5% 1.4%
Final Four1.0% 1.4% 0.5%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Home) - 59.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 12
Quad 23 - 210 - 15
Quad 33 - 012 - 15
Quad 44 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 77   Sam Houston St. L 51-52 74%     0 - 1 +3.3 -16.9 +20.1
  Nov 11, 2022 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 66-58 98%     1 - 1 -4.7 -7.8 +3.3
  Nov 15, 2022 154   UNC Wilmington W 74-53 88%     2 - 1 +19.0 +12.6 +9.5
  Nov 18, 2022 183   South Alabama W 64-60 90%     3 - 1 +0.8 -4.1 +5.3
  Nov 24, 2022 91   Nebraska W 69-56 70%     4 - 1 +18.4 +12.2 +8.3
  Nov 25, 2022 47   Seton Hall W 77-64 53%     5 - 1 +23.3 +17.7 +6.5
  Nov 27, 2022 96   Mississippi W 59-55 71%     6 - 1 +9.2 +2.5 +7.6
  Dec 03, 2022 66   @ Villanova L 66-70 50%     6 - 2 +7.0 +12.8 -6.7
  Dec 06, 2022 259   UMKC W 75-53 95%     7 - 2 +14.2 +6.3 +9.5
  Dec 10, 2022 21   Arkansas L 78-88 40%     7 - 3 +3.6 +15.4 -12.0
  Dec 17, 2022 338   Central Arkansas W 87-66 98%     8 - 3 +7.3 +8.3 -0.7
  Dec 20, 2022 44   Florida W 62-53 51%     9 - 3 +19.6 +0.1 +19.8
  Dec 31, 2022 10   Texas L 69-70 42%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +12.1 +6.9 +5.1
  Jan 04, 2023 19   Iowa St. L 60-63 49%     9 - 5 0 - 2 +8.3 +5.7 +2.1
  Jan 07, 2023 54   @ Texas Tech W 68-63 OT 45%     10 - 5 1 - 2 +17.3 -0.6 +17.7
  Jan 10, 2023 7   @ Kansas L 75-79 22%     10 - 6 1 - 3 +15.2 +10.1 +5.2
  Jan 14, 2023 23   West Virginia W 77-76 51%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +11.8 +15.5 -3.7
  Jan 18, 2023 36   @ Oklahoma St. L 56-72 38%     11 - 7 2 - 4 -1.8 -5.8 +4.0
  Jan 21, 2023 14   Baylor L 60-62 45%     11 - 8 2 - 5 +10.2 -1.8 +11.7
  Jan 24, 2023 15   @ TCU L 52-79 27%     11 - 9 2 - 6 -9.6 -10.4 +0.5
  Jan 28, 2023 4   Alabama W 93-69 34%     12 - 9 +39.1 +22.8 +14.9
  Feb 01, 2023 36   Oklahoma St. W 65-63 59%    
  Feb 04, 2023 23   @ West Virginia L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 08, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 11, 2023 7   Kansas L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 14, 2023 26   Kansas St. W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 18, 2023 10   @ Texas L 66-73 24%    
  Feb 21, 2023 54   Texas Tech W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 25, 2023 19   @ Iowa St. L 60-66 29%    
  Mar 01, 2023 26   @ Kansas St. L 66-71 32%    
  Mar 04, 2023 15   TCU L 68-69 47%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 0.4 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.3 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 7.5 6.3 0.6 16.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.4 10.8 9.8 1.7 0.0 27.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 7.8 14.3 9.5 2.2 0.1 35.8 9th
10th 0.7 2.8 3.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.9 10th
Total 0.8 4.5 11.9 20.5 22.8 20.1 11.8 5.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 57.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 5.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
10-8 1.7% 99.8% 9.7% 90.0% 4.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 5.6% 99.7% 10.2% 89.5% 6.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.6%
8-10 11.8% 96.4% 7.9% 88.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.4 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.4 96.1%
7-11 20.1% 71.0% 6.2% 64.8% 10.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 6.0 6.1 0.3 0.0 5.8 69.1%
6-12 22.8% 17.0% 4.8% 12.2% 11.5 0.2 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 19.0 12.8%
5-13 20.5% 4.0% 3.9% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 19.7 0.1%
4-14 11.9% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.1 0.4 11.4
3-15 4.5% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 4.4
2-16 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.6% 5.5% 33.1% 9.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.1 2.9 4.1 5.1 4.5 7.2 8.4 1.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 61.4 35.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8% 1.5% 16.0 1.5