Northern Arizona
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
3  Futsum Zienasellassie SR 30:52
16  Matthew Baxter JR 31:15
24  Tyler Day SO 31:21
35  Cory Glines SR 31:28
95  Andy Trouard JR 31:48
97  Nathan Weitz SR 31:49
112  Geordie Beamish FR 31:52
203  Peter Lomong SO 32:14
576  Harvey Nelson JR 33:04
National Rank #2 of 312
Mountain Region Rank #1 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 1st at Nationals


National Champion 25.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 81.3%
Top 10 at Nationals 98.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 53.0%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Futsum Zienasellassie Matthew Baxter Tyler Day Cory Glines Andy Trouard Nathan Weitz Geordie Beamish Peter Lomong Harvey Nelson
Sycamore Invitational 09/10 404 31:21 31:28 31:54 33:09 32:01 31:48
Mesa Thunderbird Classic 10/08 1244
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 31:39 33:38
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 172 30:49 30:59 31:16 31:21 31:38 31:29 31:48
Big Sky Conference 10/28 262 30:58 31:17 31:21 31:41 31:41 31:42 32:06 32:35
Mountain Region Championships 11/11 272 31:12 31:38 31:19 31:18 32:07 31:42





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 3.5 159 25.2 21.0 14.1 12.0 9.1 6.3 4.6 2.5 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.7 51 53.0 28.6 15.0 2.9 0.7



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Futsum Zienasellassie 100% 4.7 5.7 15.6 14.6 9.7 6.9 5.8 4.3 3.8 3.2 2.7 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7
Matthew Baxter 100% 22.6 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.9 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.6 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.7
Tyler Day 100% 28.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.3 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.4
Cory Glines 100% 38.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.5 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.6
Andy Trouard 100% 87.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Nathan Weitz 100% 88.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2
Geordie Beamish 100% 97.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Futsum Zienasellassie 1.0 61.2 11.1 6.4 4.5 2.7 2.5 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
Matthew Baxter 5.1 5.9 17.2 9.4 9.6 7.4 5.2 5.4 4.6 3.7 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.2 1.8 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9
Tyler Day 6.9 2.9 9.2 9.7 8.6 7.6 6.7 6.3 4.8 4.1 4.0 3.8 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.8
Cory Glines 10.5 0.4 2.5 5.4 6.4 6.0 6.6 5.8 5.5 4.7 4.6 4.6 3.9 3.1 3.8 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.7
Andy Trouard 22.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.9 3.7 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.9 2.7 3.4 2.5
Nathan Weitz 23.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.0 4.0 3.7 3.4 4.5 3.8 3.8 4.3 3.5 3.1
Geordie Beamish 25.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.4 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.2 2.9 3.4 3.9 2.9 3.4 3.1 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 53.0% 100.0% 53.0 53.0 1
2 28.6% 100.0% 28.6 28.6 2
3 15.0% 100.0% 14.3 0.7 0.1 15.0 3
4 2.9% 100.0% 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.9 4
5 0.7% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 53.0 28.6 14.3 1.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 81.6 18.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Syracuse 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Iona 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 99.9% 1.0 1.0
BYU 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Georgetown 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Portland 98.2% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 95.5% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 95.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 92.4% 1.0 0.9
Boise State 89.6% 1.0 0.9
Colorado St. 85.2% 1.0 0.9
Eastern Kentucky 82.3% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina St. 81.2% 1.0 0.8
Washington St. 79.9% 1.0 0.8
Providence 78.3% 1.0 0.8
Southern Utah 71.5% 2.0 1.4
Tulsa 68.5% 1.0 0.7
Michigan 66.4% 1.0 0.7
Princeton 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Texas A&M 43.0% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Michigan 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Penn 36.5% 1.0 0.4
Illinois 32.4% 1.0 0.3
Washington 16.7% 1.0 0.2
Florida State 14.8% 1.0 0.1
Minnesota 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Columbia 1.7% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Total 19.9
Minimum 15.0
Maximum 25.0