Stanford
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
8  Grant Fisher JR 30:56
29  Alex Ostberg SO 31:23
36  Steven Fahy JR 31:25
70  Callum Bolger FR 31:37
89  Alek Parsons FR 31:44
95  Tai Dinger JR 31:45
105  Sam Wharton SR 31:47
143  Blair Hurlock JR 31:58
178  Jack Keelan SR 32:04
250  Isaac Cortes FR 32:18
National Rank #3 of 315
West Region Rank #1 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.8%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Nationals


National Champion 5.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 69.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 95.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.8%


Regional Champion 58.3%
Top 5 in Regional 99.6%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Grant Fisher Alex Ostberg Steven Fahy Callum Bolger Alek Parsons Tai Dinger Sam Wharton Blair Hurlock Jack Keelan Isaac Cortes
USD Invite 09/16 1026 33:00 33:00 33:00 33:01 33:00
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 260 30:46 31:05 31:49 31:39 31:39 31:39 32:10
Pac-12 Championship 10/27 229 31:04 31:12 31:12 31:36 31:43 31:35 32:01 31:42 32:32 32:11
West Region Championships 11/10 296 31:25 31:17 31:38 31:39 31:47 31:34 31:54





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.8% 4.8 195 5.2 10.7 24.1 18.2 11.4 8.6 5.8 5.4 3.4 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.6 58 58.3 26.7 9.6 4.2 0.9 0.4 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Grant Fisher 100.0% 11.1 1.8 2.1 3.6 5.0 5.4 6.6 5.2 6.6 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.9
Alex Ostberg 99.8% 40.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.4 2.4 2.0 2.1 1.2 2.3 1.8 1.7
Steven Fahy 99.9% 43.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.6
Callum Bolger 99.8% 67.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6
Alek Parsons 99.8% 80.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Tai Dinger 99.8% 88.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
Sam Wharton 99.8% 92.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Grant Fisher 1.6 40.1 17.7 10.6 5.8 4.6 3.6 3.2 1.5 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.4 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4
Alex Ostberg 8.4 1.2 5.2 6.6 8.3 7.9 6.7 6.7 5.9 4.6 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5
Steven Fahy 9.3 0.6 3.9 6.0 6.5 6.3 8.2 5.6 7.1 4.7 4.8 4.3 3.7 3.3 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.0 2.3 1.4 1.7 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4
Callum Bolger 16.3 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.5 4.1 4.6 4.9 3.2 3.6 3.5 4.4 3.3 3.8 3.4 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.3 2.2 1.7
Alek Parsons 21.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.2 3.1 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.5 3.8 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.8
Tai Dinger 21.5 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.4 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.5 4.0 3.6 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.7
Sam Wharton 23.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.8 3.1 3.4 3.8 3.3 3.9 3.0 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 58.3% 100.0% 58.3 58.3 1
2 26.7% 100.0% 26.7 26.7 2
3 9.6% 100.0% 6.2 2.9 0.4 0.2 9.6 3
4 4.2% 100.0% 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 4.2 4
5 0.9% 94.1% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 5
6 0.4% 75.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 6
7 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 99.8% 58.3 26.7 6.2 2.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 85.0 14.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Colorado 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Furman 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Colorado St. 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Southern Utah 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Air Force 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Iona 97.0% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 95.0% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 88.5% 2.0 1.8
Oregon 88.4% 2.0 1.8
Minnesota 88.2% 1.0 0.9
Washington 71.7% 3.0 2.2
North Carolina St. 69.1% 1.0 0.7
Illinois 56.1% 1.0 0.6
Washington St. 42.1% 2.0 0.8
Eastern Kentucky 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Penn 37.5% 1.0 0.4
Boise State 37.1% 1.0 0.4
Wisconsin 26.1% 1.0 0.3
Florida State 23.7% 1.0 0.2
Purdue 22.8% 1.0 0.2
San Francisco 20.6% 1.0 0.2
Tulsa 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 4.0% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 1.0% 1.0 0.0
California 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Total 19.8
Minimum 13.0
Maximum 25.0