Michigan
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
30  Ben Flanagan SR 31:24
87  Aaron Baumgarten SR 31:43
100  Connor Mora SR 31:46
153  Isaac Harding FR 32:00
183  Billy Bund SR 32:06
196  John Aho FR 32:09
209  Ben Hill SO 32:11
466  Keenan Rebera SO 32:45
663  Micah Beller SR 33:07
National Rank #12 of 315
Great Lakes Region Rank #1 of 31
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.8%
Most Likely Finish 11th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 5.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 35.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 91.1%


Regional Champion 60.4%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Ben Flanagan Aaron Baumgarten Connor Mora Isaac Harding Billy Bund John Aho Ben Hill Keenan Rebera Micah Beller
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/29 493 31:29 32:15 31:53 31:59 31:54 32:08 32:08
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 394 31:20 31:28 31:44 32:02 31:53 32:16 33:14
Big Ten Championship 10/29 479 31:31 31:44 31:51 32:01 32:36 32:11 32:09 32:20 33:02
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/10 498 31:28 32:00 31:38 32:29 32:06 32:12 33:44





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.8% 13.0 377 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 2.3 4.0 4.8 6.5 7.5 7.4 8.1 6.8 6.1 6.6 6.3 5.4 4.9 4.6 4.1 3.0 2.4 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.5 55 60.4 34.5 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ben Flanagan 99.9% 40.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.3 2.3 1.6
Aaron Baumgarten 99.8% 80.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4
Connor Mora 99.8% 89.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Isaac Harding 99.8% 122.9 0.1
Billy Bund 99.8% 139.4
John Aho 99.8% 144.8
Ben Hill 99.8% 152.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ben Flanagan 2.4 30.4 15.7 10.7 8.2 5.8 5.3 4.0 3.2 2.0 2.1 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3
Aaron Baumgarten 7.8 2.6 5.9 7.4 7.6 7.7 6.7 7.5 5.9 5.0 4.5 4.6 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.8 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.5
Connor Mora 8.6 1.3 3.9 6.5 7.3 7.2 7.8 6.9 5.9 5.4 5.9 5.0 3.3 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0
Isaac Harding 15.1 0.1 0.7 1.1 2.2 3.2 3.0 4.3 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.4 4.7 4.0 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.5 2.5
Billy Bund 18.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 4.0 3.7 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.2 4.9 4.3 3.6 4.3 3.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 1.9
John Aho 19.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.3 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.6 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.3
Ben Hill 21.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.1 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.9 3.4 4.1 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.6 2.9 2.9 3.5 2.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 60.4% 100.0% 60.4 60.4 1
2 34.5% 100.0% 34.5 34.5 2
3 3.6% 100.0% 3.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 3.6 3
4 1.3% 100.0% 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 4
5 0.2% 25.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
Total 100% 99.8% 60.4 34.5 3.1 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 94.9 4.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 99.4% 2.0 2.0
Air Force 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Iona 97.0% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 95.0% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 88.5% 1.0 0.9
Minnesota 88.2% 2.0 1.8
Washington 71.7% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 69.1% 2.0 1.4
Illinois 56.1% 2.0 1.1
Washington St. 42.1% 2.0 0.8
Eastern Kentucky 38.0% 2.0 0.8
Penn 37.5% 1.0 0.4
Boise State 37.1% 1.0 0.4
Alabama 34.6% 1.0 0.3
Penn State 26.3% 1.0 0.3
Wisconsin 26.1% 2.0 0.5
Florida State 23.7% 2.0 0.5
Purdue 22.8% 2.0 0.5
San Francisco 20.6% 1.0 0.2
Tulsa 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 4.6% 2.0 0.1
Columbia 4.0% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 1.0% 2.0 0.0
California 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Butler 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 16.7
Minimum 10.0
Maximum 23.0