Carmel
Boys - Girls
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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State Rank #1
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #1
Noblesville Regional Rank #1
Noblesville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 1st place at State Finals
State Champion 80.2%
Top 5 at State Finals 100.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Hamilton County Champioinship THSB State Preview Brown County Eagle Classic Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/29 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 107 76 100 266 84 123 112 108 117 139
Team Adjusted Rating 76 100 107 84 106 73 98 104 127
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Hamilton County Champioinship THSB State Preview Brown County Eagle Classic Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Colin Murphy 12 15:40 15:24 15:45 15:35 15:40 15:41 15:38 15:59
18  Keelan Grant 12 15:52 16:09 16:01 15:45 15:50 15:42 16:04 15:51
25  Ben Miller 12 15:59 15:52 15:58 15:52 15:44 16:06 16:24
35  Trey Harris 12 16:11 16:05 16:24 16:02 16:11 16:00 16:08 16:41
36  Thomas Gastineau 11 16:12 15:59 16:22 16:14 16:19 16:06
45  Ben Myers 10 16:14 15:54 16:07 16:47 16:20 16:05 16:15 16:13
59  Calvin Bates 11 16:19 17:20 16:07 16:34 17:24 16:16 16:02 16:09 16:14
102  Ben Johnson 10 16:35 16:49 16:42 16:27 16:34 16:35 16:41 16:25
104  Will Murphy 10 16:35 16:44 17:19 16:38 16:24 16:29 16:37 16:22 16:35 16:45
158  Anderson David 12 16:48 16:47 16:45 16:33 16:56 16:55
161  Patrick Campbell 11 16:48 16:52 16:36 17:06 16:42 16:51 16:32 17:04
169  Hudson Alden 9 16:49 16:46 16:54 16:47 16:59 16:41
175  Brady Firenze 11 16:50 16:48 17:17 17:00 16:46 16:37
188  Austin Throckmorton 10 16:52 16:41 17:03 16:41 16:50 17:08
215  Cam Harless 11 16:57 16:57 17:06 16:56 16:52 16:57
231  Eli Konow 10 17:00 16:53 16:57 16:49 16:58 17:24
336  Brendan Mudd 11 17:13 17:06 17:12 17:20 17:06 17:25
365  Ben Baines 11 17:18 17:10 17:24 17:23 17:12 17:21
395  Nate Seketa 9 17:22 17:26 17:07 17:19 17:21 17:38
399  Zane Williams 12 17:22 17:36 17:34 17:08 17:27 17:17
421  James Gastineau 9 17:24 17:17 17:32
426  Kurt Stephens 10 17:25 17:11 17:15 17:22 17:28 17:53
459  Brett Ploss 11 17:28 17:42 17:35 17:30 17:17
478  Jimmy Snyder 12 17:30 17:26 17:23 17:44
500  Sota Shishikura 12 17:33 17:16 18:10 17:36 17:31 17:26
507  Jack Salzmann 11 17:33 18:10 17:54 17:37 17:13 17:22
519  Sean Nief 12 17:35 17:17 17:29 17:36 18:01
525  Nick Schuster 10 17:35 17:16 17:43 17:26 17:48 17:41
549  Alex Nakeeb 11 17:38 16:59 17:26 17:54 17:41 17:53
570  Neil Simmons 11 17:40 17:58 17:55 17:37 17:26 17:40
590  Will Anderson 9 17:42 17:44 17:42 17:29 17:47 17:50
595  Bing Hudson 9 17:43 17:55 17:48 17:28 17:38 17:50
634  Sean Reimer 11 17:46 17:24 17:40 17:58 17:56
648  Ike Manlick 11 17:47 17:37 17:38 17:33 18:48 17:49
656  Darren Yates 11 17:48 18:43 17:33 17:37 18:26 17:28
688  Chris Perry 11 17:51 17:46 17:44 17:59 17:47 17:58
722  Ben Underwood 12 17:54 17:44 17:46 17:51 18:24 17:55
744  Abel Kiser 12 17:56 17:34 17:34 17:52 18:15 18:26
747  Evan Veatch 12 17:56 17:43 17:45 18:40 17:55
751  Owen Urtel 9 17:57 18:00 17:53 17:50 17:48 18:22
776  Noah Bergsma 10 17:59 17:55 18:02 18:09 18:00 17:52
791  Alec Wrobleski 9 18:00 18:26 17:56 17:50 17:49 18:13
860  Dan Schrader-Dobris 9 18:05 18:13 18:03 17:49 17:58 18:31
872  Ryan Abshire 10 18:05 18:15 18:06 18:15 17:58 18:02
892  Robert Kinney 11 18:07 18:00 17:58 18:08 18:17 18:12
895  Keita Arakawa 12 18:07 18:07 17:59 17:58 18:06 18:33
915  Owen Booth 10 18:09 18:25 18:04 18:08 18:11 18:05
985  Nate Enfield 11 18:13 18:05 18:08 18:35 18:20 18:06
1,058  Caleb Leinheiser 10 18:19 18:18 18:04 18:26 18:47 18:11
1,087  Sam Hooton 10 18:21 18:57 18:35 18:09 18:08
1,117  Tyler Young 9 18:23 18:11 18:46 18:13 18:27
1,121  Jake Fisher 9 18:24 18:19 18:17 18:18 18:42
1,122  Miles Simmons 9 18:24 18:40 18:10 18:08 18:25 18:43
1,145  Luke Young 12 18:25 18:18 18:14 18:34 18:33
1,175  Joey Hawkins 11 18:27 18:31 18:11 18:27 18:36
1,236  Evan Rohan 11 18:31 18:10 18:27 18:39 18:44
1,245  Vincent Chang 11 18:32 18:18 18:25 18:22 19:13
1,249  Spencer Hooton 10 18:33 18:58 18:28 18:10 18:36 18:39
1,280  Christian Smith 12 18:35 17:56 18:39 19:00
1,281  Trevor Johnson 10 18:35 18:51 18:32 18:31 18:35
1,288  Stephen Abshire 12 18:36 18:36 18:23 18:54 18:35
1,292  Adi Friedman 10 18:36 18:44 18:35 18:43 18:30
1,303  Peyton Sandlin 10 18:37 18:18 18:28 18:37 19:07
1,425  Ethan Welp 11 18:46 18:40 18:42 18:40 19:02
1,433  Josh Koone 11 18:46 18:40 18:22 18:46 19:16
1,470  Aurek Deischer 10 18:49 18:00 19:00 18:21 20:16
1,472  Zane Snider 11 18:49 18:34 18:48 18:45 19:11 18:51
1,483  Luke Hamachek 12 18:50 18:43 19:02 19:02 18:40
1,602  Caden Wisdorf 10 18:59 18:37 19:01 19:11 19:02
Drew Miller 9 19:01 18:23 19:29 19:04
Carter Spaulding 9 19:01 19:01 19:10 18:56
Seigo Tomozawa 11 19:02 19:09 18:44 19:14
Jackson Pasheliich 9 19:04 19:15 18:45 19:01 19:17
Tim Metken 11 19:05 19:11 18:54 18:54 19:23
Paul Klinger 12 19:06 18:56 18:42 19:44
Alex Wade 11 19:07 19:09 18:50 18:10 19:36 19:36
Thijs Boom 10 19:10 19:34 19:10 18:55 19:13
Will Campbell 9 19:10 19:58 18:47 19:06 19:13
Will Hurdle 11 19:16 19:15 19:57 18:53 19:17
Dj Conyers 10 19:25 19:30 19:52 19:02
Mike Corliss 10 19:28 19:30 18:51 19:21 20:10
Henry Paul 10 19:39 19:51 19:28 19:01 20:22 19:43




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 1.3 86 80.2 14.0 4.2 1.4 0.3 0.1
Semi-State 100% 1.2 40 85.1 12.6 2.1 0.2
Regionals 100% 1.2 39 85.3 12.4 2.3 0.2
Sectionals 100% 1.1 30 93.4 6.6



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Colin Murphy 100% 8.4 1.6 5.5 6.7 6.8 6.4 6.7 7.2 6.2 6.8 5.8 5.9 4.9 4.2 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.2 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.5 100.0%
Keelan Grant 100% 17.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.4 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.9 4.1 4.0 4.3 3.1 3.7 3.3 4.0 2.8 99.8%
Ben Miller 100% 23.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 3.8 3.7 3.0 3.8 98.5%
Trey Harris 100% 40.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.1 1.5 1.8 87.8%
Thomas Gastineau 100% 42.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.8 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 84.9%
Ben Myers 100% 45.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.2 81.7%
Calvin Bates 100% 57.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.9 67.2%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Colin Murphy 100% 3.3 3.6 12.7 27.7 22.4 15.6 9.8 4.8 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
Keelan Grant 100% 6.1 0.1 1.0 4.0 10.8 16.1 17.0 15.4 11.9 7.3 5.0 3.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Ben Miller 100% 8.2 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.9 6.3 10.8 14.3 12.7 10.9 9.6 6.2 5.6 3.7 3.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 100.0%
Trey Harris 100% 14.4 0.2 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.2 5.7 7.6 7.2 6.8 6.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 4.6 4.3 3.3 3.9 3.2 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.2 100.0%
Thomas Gastineau 100% 15.6 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.6 3.5 4.1 6.2 6.4 7.4 6.6 5.5 4.7 5.4 4.2 4.5 4.3 3.5 3.9 3.6 2.9 2.5 2.9 100.0%
Ben Myers 100% 16.7 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.1 5.0 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.7 6.5 5.0 4.5 5.0 4.3 3.5 3.6 2.7 2.4 2.7 100.0%
Calvin Bates 100% 21.7 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.6 5.2 4.2 5.1 4.2 4.4 3.5 4.8 4.0 3.5 3.8 99.9%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Colin Murphy 100% 3.3 3.5 11.5 28.7 24.3 16.3 10.2 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Keelan Grant 100% 5.8 0.1 0.9 4.0 11.3 16.7 22.4 19.1 12.7 5.3 2.7 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Ben Miller 100% 7.4 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.9 12.3 18.8 19.8 11.6 8.4 5.4 4.1 3.0 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 100.0%
Trey Harris 100% 11.9 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.9 6.4 8.9 10.6 10.7 9.3 8.6 6.9 6.3 4.9 5.0 3.8 3.5 3.0 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.5 100.0%
Thomas Gastineau 100% 12.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.8 8.8 9.7 9.9 9.9 8.8 7.3 7.2 5.8 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.6 2.5 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.5 100.0%
Ben Myers 100% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.8 6.7 8.5 8.6 10.4 8.6 7.1 7.0 6.4 5.7 4.7 3.9 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.1 1.1 100.0%
Calvin Bates 100% 16.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.9 2.7 4.7 7.0 6.7 8.2 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.3 6.4 5.3 5.6 4.5 4.7 3.4 2.8 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Colin Murphy 2.1 5.8 40.9 30.4 17.8 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.1
Keelan Grant 4.2 0.3 2.8 15.2 25.6 30.5 16.6 5.6 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
Ben Miller 5.4 0.1 0.6 3.5 9.9 22.3 31.7 15.8 7.8 4.4 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
Trey Harris 8.3 0.2 0.7 2.1 7.0 16.9 18.2 16.7 12.7 9.2 5.4 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Thomas Gastineau 8.6 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.9 14.4 17.8 15.7 14.7 9.3 8.3 6.0 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
Ben Myers 9.4 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.8 9.8 13.1 16.5 15.0 12.3 10.3 8.3 4.4 2.8 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
Calvin Bates 11.2 0.3 0.6 2.6 5.2 9.8 13.3 16.0 13.8 11.9 12.3 6.3 3.9 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1