Carmel
Boys - Girls
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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State Rank #4
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #3
Noblesville Regional Rank #2
Noblesville Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 3rd place at State Finals
State Champion 11.5%
Top 5 at State Finals 76.4%
Top 10 at State Finals 98.7%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Taylor University Invitational Hamilton County Championship Marion Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/26 8/29 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 162 511 172 222 177 156 270 138 196 162 163
Team Adjusted Rating 162 172 174 130 156 171 138 152 162 163
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Taylor University Invitational Hamilton County Championship Marion Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Phoebe Bates 10 18:15 18:31 18:15 18:06 18:09 18:23 18:20 18:17 18:17
12  Maddie Dalton 12 18:43 19:04 18:37 18:35 18:36 18:57
69  Lindsey Roper 11 19:27 19:43 19:45 19:32 19:30 19:36 19:12 19:10 19:24 19:30
100  Lily McAndrews 10 19:39 19:17 19:38 19:24 19:45 19:39 19:34 19:57 20:05 19:32
129  Sydney Haines 10 19:51 19:52 20:07 19:16 19:41 20:37 19:36 20:01 19:45 19:57
137  Izza Khurram 11 19:54 20:41 20:02 19:53 19:53 19:36 19:52 19:46
148  Roni Ledezma 9 20:01 19:53 20:09 20:05 20:09 19:53
159  Anna Morozov 12 20:04 20:00 20:04 20:02 20:05 19:51 20:11 19:53 20:30
205  Abby Parker 9 20:20 20:21 19:52 20:25 20:34
220  Halle Welch 10 20:25 20:52 20:28 20:27 20:29 20:32 19:58
235  Kierstyn Guerrant 10 20:27 20:32 20:40 20:52 20:15 20:04
278  Tasha Geisler 12 20:38 20:06 20:08 20:34 21:13 21:01
285  Emily Hand 10 20:39 20:54 20:45 20:18
290  Alyssa Easton 12 20:40 20:28 20:37 20:53 20:26 20:59
304  Madalyn Sailors 10 20:42 20:47 20:32 20:42 20:58 20:43 20:31
512  Martha Hunter 10 21:21 21:06 21:44 21:36 21:29 21:22 20:56
521  Eva Brungard 11 21:22 21:13 21:15 21:27 21:23 21:30
531  Emma Wright 11 21:24 20:55 22:23 21:26 21:30 20:40 21:33
541  Elle Nichol 10 21:25 20:40 21:03 23:47
584  Olivia Shafer 12 21:34 21:13 21:28 21:40 21:38 21:24 21:57
761  Anna Nelsen 12 22:03 21:54 21:59 22:04 22:25 21:57 21:59
812  Annie Christie 9 22:09 22:07 22:12
823  Parul Gupta 10 22:11 22:11
825  Adell Urtel 11 22:11 22:00 21:56 22:34 22:14 22:03 22:20
870  Tori Ledezma 11 22:17 22:42 22:05 22:57 22:03 22:08
998  Corrine Miller 12 22:37 23:05 22:43 22:22
1,004  Abbey Grogan 9 22:38 22:47 22:23 22:28 22:50 22:42
1,015  Maya Phipps 10 22:40 22:59 22:56 23:04 22:17 22:27
1,019  Hannah Nist 11 22:40 22:44 22:58 22:38 22:23 22:51
1,024  Alyson Pickering 11 22:41 22:04 22:19 22:24 23:22 23:16
1,039  Savannah Hill 9 22:42 23:08 22:59 22:36 22:26 22:45
1,066  Lilia Mills 9 22:47 22:45 23:44 23:03 22:10 22:43
1,092  Madison Lindfelt 11 22:51 21:47 23:31 22:26 23:39 22:54
1,163  Summer Snyder 12 22:59 23:06 22:43 23:18 22:52
1,271  Hope Stauffer 11 23:13 23:00 23:08 23:49 23:05 23:13
1,326  Yael Kiser 9 23:19 23:22 23:02 23:42 23:27 23:11
1,336  Jenna Rodgers 11 23:20 23:19 23:10 23:34 23:20
1,355  Abby Hamachek 12 23:23 23:23
1,358  Colleen Harless 10 23:23 23:26 23:10 23:32
Grace Barney 9 23:30 23:26 23:52 23:44 23:13
Ria Patel 10 23:41 24:04 23:47 23:50 23:17
Ellie Langeman 11 23:41 23:40 23:33 23:40 23:51
Eleanor Dyas 10 23:50 23:25 24:18
Emma Cappella 9 23:56 23:12 23:20 26:11 23:59
Cory Steele 12 24:01 24:22 23:52
Cassidy Shank 9 24:04 23:11 23:57 24:04 25:03
Dani Bouillet 11 24:05 22:36 23:29 24:43 24:48
Paige Ohrvall 10 24:06 22:56 24:02 24:59
Kara Deady 12 24:09 23:46 23:46 24:13 24:45
Rene Pin 11 24:12 25:09 23:10 24:09 24:22
Lissa Heber 9 24:14 23:45 23:38 26:46 24:12
Paige Fulkerson 9 24:16 23:56 24:04 24:24 24:29
Meredith Steever 9 24:18 23:38 23:40 24:40 24:50
Molly Wright 9 25:47 25:20 25:09 25:46 26:55




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 4.1 179 11.5 16.7 18.8 16.7 12.8 9.3 5.4 4.3 2.3 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Semi-State 100% 2.9 96 21.6 25.5 22.6 14.9 7.9 5.0 2.5 0.3
Regionals 100% 2.2 73 32.8 35.0 18.7 9.4 4.0 0.3
Sectionals 100% 1.6 52 58.5 25.0 11.6 4.9



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Phoebe Bates 100% 3.8 6.3 13.2 18.3 14.8 10.4 7.5 6.5 5.0 4.1 3.5 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 100.0%
Maddie Dalton 100% 16.5 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.6 3.3 4.4 3.4 4.4 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.0 3.1 3.8 3.6 4.0 2.3 2.1 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.0 1.8 97.2%
Lindsey Roper 100% 66.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 24.7%
Lily McAndrews 100% 87.9 0.1 0.1 6.8%
Sydney Haines 100% 105.2 1.1%
Izza Khurram 100% 110.8 0.9%
Roni Ledezma 100% 121.2 0.1%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Phoebe Bates 100% 1.9 13.8 41.6 23.7 9.6 4.4 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Maddie Dalton 100% 7.2 0.1 0.9 6.4 11.1 11.1 9.7 9.3 7.6 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Lindsey Roper 100% 30.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.5 2.8 2.8 3.5 3.8 3.2 3.3 93.4%
Lily McAndrews 100% 40.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.4 78.4%
Sydney Haines 100% 49.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 51.4%
Izza Khurram 100% 51.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 44.5%
Roni Ledezma 100% 56.8 0.1 0.1 28.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Phoebe Bates 100% 1.0 58.1 27.7 8.8 2.9 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Maddie Dalton 100% 4.2 0.9 8.8 20.3 17.8 13.4 9.9 9.3 5.8 4.7 2.9 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Lindsey Roper 100% 17.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.4 4.1 4.5 5.9 5.3 6.1 6.6 6.2 6.7 4.8 5.6 5.3 4.0 4.3 3.8 2.8 100.0%
Lily McAndrews 100% 24.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.8 2.1 3.1 3.2 3.9 4.8 4.1 5.4 5.1 4.1 5.5 6.6 100.0%
Sydney Haines 100% 30.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.5 1.6 3.0 2.5 3.7 3.0 3.1 100.0%
Izza Khurram 100% 32.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.3 100.0%
Roni Ledezma 100% 36.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.6 1.6 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Phoebe Bates 1.0 85.9 9.5 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.2
Maddie Dalton 2.7 0.9 33.2 21.8 16.4 11.6 8.0 3.8 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Lindsey Roper 11.4 0.2 0.9 1.2 2.8 5.1 7.9 9.7 10.0 9.1 8.7 7.3 6.8 6.5 6.3 4.5 3.3 3.6 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.3
Lily McAndrews 16.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.1 2.9 3.1 4.7 6.5 6.8 6.8 7.7 6.8 9.0 6.9 7.2 5.0 5.5 4.8 3.7 2.9 2.0
Sydney Haines 20.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.5 2.6 3.9 4.3 5.3 5.4 5.9 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.8 7.4 6.5 7.5
Izza Khurram 21.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.3 4.5 4.6 6.0 5.5 6.3 6.4 7.2 7.6 7.2 7.3
Roni Ledezma 24.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.7 3.0 2.9 4.5 5.2 5.9 5.8 6.5 7.2 8.6