Wagner
Northeast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#127
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#47
Pace67.5#212
Improvement-3.9#332

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#146
First Shot+2.7#97
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#291
Layup/Dunks+6.9#12
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.0#352
Freethrows+1.0#99
Improvement-0.2#187

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#127
First Shot+0.4#163
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#89
Layups/Dunks+0.9#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#110
Freethrows-3.3#338
Improvement-3.7#344
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.4% 58.5% 50.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 75.1% 85.5% 57.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round55.4% 58.4% 50.1%
Second Round6.0% 6.8% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Away) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 01 - 2
Quad 32 - 13 - 3
Quad 417 - 220 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 278   Hartford W 77-59 86%     1 - 0 +8.8 +1.3 +8.2
  Nov 13, 2021 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 58-44 24%     2 - 0 +23.9 +5.8 +20.3
  Dec 01, 2021 23   @ Seton Hall L 63-85 12%     2 - 1 -6.6 -7.9 +3.1
  Dec 04, 2021 224   @ Stony Brook W 78-49 61%     3 - 1 +28.6 +6.4 +23.1
  Dec 08, 2021 56   @ Penn St. L 54-74 20%     3 - 2 -8.6 -9.8 +0.1
  Dec 20, 2021 358   Delaware St. W 93-51 99%     4 - 2 +17.2 -2.3 +15.1
  Dec 23, 2021 219   @ Fairfield W 63-50 60%     5 - 2 +12.8 -0.3 +15.0
  Dec 29, 2021 301   @ St. Francis (PA) W 72-64 78%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +2.4 -0.9 +3.5
  Jan 06, 2022 227   Bryant W 84-81 OT 78%     7 - 2 2 - 0 -2.7 -6.1 +2.9
  Jan 15, 2022 328   St. Francis Brooklyn W 81-76 93%     8 - 2 3 - 0 -8.6 +6.4 -14.6
  Jan 17, 2022 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 95-64 94%     9 - 2 4 - 0 +16.3 +7.9 +6.3
  Jan 21, 2022 235   @ LIU Brooklyn W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 23, 2022 289   @ Merrimack W 65-57 75%    
  Jan 27, 2022 301   St. Francis (PA) W 76-63 90%    
  Jan 29, 2022 328   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 03, 2022 343   @ Central Connecticut St. W 75-62 88%    
  Feb 05, 2022 235   LIU Brooklyn W 78-69 82%    
  Feb 10, 2022 282   Mount St. Mary's W 70-58 88%    
  Feb 12, 2022 289   Merrimack W 68-55 89%    
  Feb 17, 2022 284   @ Sacred Heart W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 19, 2022 343   Central Connecticut St. W 78-60 96%    
  Feb 24, 2022 341   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-66 86%    
  Feb 26, 2022 227   @ Bryant W 76-73 59%    
Projected Record 19 - 4 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.9 13.6 23.4 23.2 10.8 75.1 1st
2nd 0.3 2.6 6.7 5.9 2.0 0.2 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.5 1.4 0.2 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.7 12.0 19.7 25.3 23.3 10.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 10.8    10.8
15-3 99.3% 23.2    22.2 1.0
14-4 92.3% 23.4    19.1 4.3 0.0
13-5 69.2% 13.6    7.6 5.3 0.7 0.0
12-6 32.4% 3.9    1.1 1.7 1.0 0.1
11-7 5.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 75.1% 75.1 60.7 12.3 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 10.8% 68.9% 68.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.1 3.1 0.5 3.3
15-3 23.3% 64.1% 64.1% 13.3 0.0 1.5 8.1 5.0 0.4 8.4
14-4 25.3% 57.1% 57.1% 13.8 0.2 4.7 8.0 1.5 0.0 10.9
13-5 19.7% 51.0% 51.0% 14.1 0.0 1.5 5.6 2.8 0.1 9.6
12-6 12.0% 44.3% 44.3% 14.5 0.3 2.2 2.6 0.3 6.7
11-7 5.7% 41.0% 41.0% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.3 3.4
10-8 2.3% 34.2% 34.2% 15.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.5
9-9 0.7% 16.9% 16.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.6
8-10 0.2% 8.3% 8.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 55.4% 55.4% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.9 17.7 21.9 9.2 1.1 44.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.4% 100.0% 12.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 8.0 42.2 41.4 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%