Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.9#343
Expected Predictive Rating-11.3#323
Pace68.6#179
Improvement+0.9#132

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#335
First Shot-6.8#336
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#167
Layup/Dunks-8.3#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#125
Freethrows-0.8#245
Improvement-0.7#225

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#334
First Shot-5.3#326
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#264
Layups/Dunks-4.2#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#272
Freethrows+0.1#182
Improvement+1.6#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 4.2% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 47.2% 26.8% 53.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Away) - 23.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 47 - 128 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 18   @ Connecticut L 48-99 1%     0 - 1 -34.7 -18.7 -14.0
  Nov 14, 2021 181   @ Brown L 57-75 9%     0 - 2 -16.2 -9.7 -7.6
  Nov 16, 2021 97   North Carolina St. L 65-79 5%     0 - 3 -8.2 -7.2 -1.1
  Nov 17, 2021 262   Umass Lowell L 53-77 23%     0 - 4 -29.3 -17.7 -12.9
  Nov 20, 2021 241   @ Quinnipiac L 65-76 15%     0 - 5 -12.9 -6.4 -7.0
  Nov 23, 2021 349   @ Maine W 64-56 46%     1 - 5 -3.9 -6.3 +3.2
  Nov 28, 2021 215   Fordham L 83-89 2OT 22%     1 - 6 -10.9 -4.0 -5.8
  Dec 01, 2021 344   Holy Cross W 73-67 60%     2 - 6 -9.6 -1.3 -7.7
  Dec 04, 2021 230   @ New Hampshire L 45-67 14%     2 - 7 -23.0 -23.8 -2.1
  Dec 11, 2021 44   @ Providence L 53-68 2%     2 - 8 -2.2 -17.4 +16.6
  Dec 14, 2021 224   @ Stony Brook L 67-87 12%     2 - 9 -20.4 -8.8 -11.0
  Dec 18, 2021 278   Hartford W 75-65 36%     3 - 9 +0.8 +0.6 +0.8
  Dec 29, 2021 227   Bryant L 76-80 24%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -9.7 -6.5 -2.9
  Dec 31, 2021 328   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 67-55 34%     4 - 10 1 - 1 +3.5 -4.0 +8.6
  Jan 01, 2022 64   @ Rutgers L 48-79 2%     4 - 11 -20.3 -16.5 -3.6
  Jan 08, 2022 289   Merrimack L 57-66 39%     4 - 12 1 - 2 -19.0 -9.6 -10.7
  Jan 15, 2022 235   @ LIU Brooklyn L 61-83 14%     4 - 13 1 - 3 -23.5 -12.7 -10.4
  Jan 17, 2022 284   @ Sacred Heart L 66-74 22%     4 - 14 1 - 4 -12.6 -9.6 -3.2
  Jan 21, 2022 301   @ St. Francis (PA) L 67-74 23%    
  Jan 23, 2022 282   @ Mount St. Mary's L 60-68 20%    
  Jan 27, 2022 235   LIU Brooklyn L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 29, 2022 341   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 72-75 36%    
  Feb 03, 2022 127   Wagner L 62-75 12%    
  Feb 05, 2022 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 10, 2022 289   @ Merrimack L 58-66 22%    
  Feb 12, 2022 328   St. Francis Brooklyn W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 17, 2022 227   @ Bryant L 69-81 12%    
  Feb 19, 2022 127   @ Wagner L 60-78 4%    
  Feb 24, 2022 301   St. Francis (PA) L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 26, 2022 282   Mount St. Mary's L 63-66 40%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 5 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 3.5 1.1 0.1 6.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 6.9 2.7 0.2 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.1 3.1 10.1 6.0 0.4 0.0 19.8 8th
9th 0.6 5.0 12.2 8.2 0.9 0.0 27.0 9th
10th 2.2 8.1 12.4 6.9 1.0 0.0 30.6 10th
Total 2.2 8.7 17.6 22.2 21.6 15.3 7.6 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 19.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 23.1% 23.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
8-10 3.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.3
7-11 7.6% 7.6
6-12 15.3% 15.3
5-13 21.6% 21.6
4-14 22.2% 22.2
3-15 17.6% 17.6
2-16 8.7% 8.7
1-17 2.2% 2.2
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.2%