Merrimack
Northeast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#289
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#283
Pace58.7#350
Improvement-2.6#289

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#336
First Shot-3.5#277
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#342
Layup/Dunks-3.0#290
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#132
Freethrows-1.5#290
Improvement+0.7#135

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#196
First Shot+2.3#98
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#351
Layups/Dunks+1.5#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#78
Freethrows-0.4#227
Improvement-3.2#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 10.8% 18.6% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 42.5% 59.2% 28.6%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.4% 3.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Home) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 31 - 8
Quad 412 - 912 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 305   @ NJIT W 61-54 43%     1 - 0 +1.2 -11.8 +13.1
  Nov 13, 2021 64   @ Rutgers L 35-48 6%     1 - 1 -2.3 -21.8 +16.7
  Nov 17, 2021 266   @ Army L 51-74 33%     1 - 2 -26.0 -23.9 -1.5
  Nov 19, 2021 294   Lehigh W 55-45 61%     2 - 2 -0.3 -15.6 +16.5
  Nov 21, 2021 32   @ Virginia Tech L 43-72 3%     2 - 3 -14.9 -15.0 -5.1
  Nov 23, 2021 278   Hartford W 75-60 56%     3 - 3 +5.8 +6.8 +1.1
  Nov 28, 2021 198   @ Boston University L 60-61 21%     3 - 4 +0.0 +1.4 -1.7
  Dec 04, 2021 262   Umass Lowell L 57-61 51%     3 - 5 -11.8 -13.9 +1.8
  Dec 07, 2021 181   Brown L 56-76 34%     3 - 6 -23.3 -12.8 -11.9
  Dec 09, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 55-80 1%     3 - 7 +0.1 -7.5 +7.0
  Dec 12, 2021 27   @ Indiana L 49-81 3%     3 - 8 -16.9 -11.1 -8.0
  Dec 21, 2021 349   @ Maine W 49-47 66%     4 - 8 -9.9 -14.1 +4.7
  Dec 29, 2021 328   St. Francis Brooklyn W 74-64 72%     5 - 8 1 - 0 -3.6 +2.1 -4.6
  Dec 31, 2021 235   LIU Brooklyn W 82-77 46%     6 - 8 2 - 0 -1.5 +16.6 -17.5
  Jan 08, 2022 343   @ Central Connecticut St. W 66-57 61%     7 - 8 3 - 0 -1.4 -2.3 +2.2
  Jan 15, 2022 301   St. Francis (PA) L 46-62 62%     7 - 9 3 - 1 -26.6 -30.8 +3.8
  Jan 17, 2022 282   Mount St. Mary's L 50-57 58%     7 - 10 3 - 2 -16.5 -15.3 -2.5
  Jan 21, 2022 227   Bryant L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 23, 2022 127   Wagner L 57-65 25%    
  Jan 27, 2022 227   @ Bryant L 63-70 24%    
  Jan 29, 2022 284   @ Sacred Heart L 61-64 38%    
  Feb 03, 2022 282   @ Mount St. Mary's L 55-58 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 301   @ St. Francis (PA) L 61-63 42%    
  Feb 10, 2022 343   Central Connecticut St. W 66-58 78%    
  Feb 12, 2022 127   @ Wagner L 55-68 11%    
  Feb 17, 2022 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 68-61 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 284   Sacred Heart W 64-62 59%    
  Feb 24, 2022 235   @ LIU Brooklyn L 62-68 27%    
  Feb 26, 2022 328   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 63-62 52%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 2.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.4 3.6 0.5 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 8.3 5.8 0.8 0.0 17.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 9.9 7.4 1.2 0.0 21.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 9.6 7.4 0.9 0.0 20.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.9 5.7 0.8 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 2.9 0.5 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 10th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.4 11.4 18.6 20.5 18.4 13.3 7.1 2.7 0.8 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 97.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1
13-5 51.0% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 18.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 0.2
13-5 0.8% 0.8
12-6 2.7% 2.7
11-7 7.1% 7.1
10-8 13.3% 13.3
9-9 18.4% 18.4
8-10 20.5% 20.5
7-11 18.6% 18.6
6-12 11.4% 11.4
5-13 5.4% 5.4
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%