St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#301
Expected Predictive Rating-10.8#320
Pace70.0#139
Improvement-3.5#314

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#297
First Shot-5.6#322
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#87
Layup/Dunks-0.7#193
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#281
Freethrows-1.5#288
Improvement-7.1#358

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#294
First Shot-2.0#249
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#305
Layups/Dunks-1.3#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#264
Freethrows+0.8#130
Improvement+3.6#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.6% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.3% 2.9% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 22.0% 26.5% 7.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.9% 5.2% 21.3%
First Four2.1% 2.5% 0.7%
First Round1.1% 1.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 271   @ George Washington L 72-75 33%     0 - 1 -6.6 -7.3 +1.0
  Nov 18, 2021 32   @ Virginia Tech L 55-85 3%     0 - 2 -15.9 -8.5 -8.5
  Nov 24, 2021 229   @ Cornell L 80-93 24%     0 - 3 -13.9 -1.7 -11.1
  Nov 28, 2021 294   @ Lehigh W 79-68 39%     1 - 3 +5.7 +5.4 +0.4
  Dec 01, 2021 331   Bucknell W 93-67 71%     2 - 3 +12.3 +7.8 +3.5
  Dec 04, 2021 84   @ Ohio L 75-78 6%     2 - 4 +6.3 +5.0 +1.3
  Dec 08, 2021 330   @ American L 73-83 52%     2 - 5 -18.7 +0.2 -19.6
  Dec 14, 2021 278   @ Hartford W 81-66 35%     3 - 5 +10.9 +2.0 +8.3
  Dec 18, 2021 11   @ Illinois L 48-106 1%     3 - 6 -38.8 -9.8 -37.6
  Dec 22, 2021 306   Robert Morris L 67-75 60%     3 - 7 -18.8 -8.4 -11.0
  Dec 29, 2021 127   Wagner L 64-72 22%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -8.0 -6.6 -1.7
  Dec 31, 2021 341   Fairleigh Dickinson L 62-70 74%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -22.7 -21.0 -1.5
  Jan 06, 2022 328   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 53-70 52%     3 - 10 0 - 3 -25.5 -21.3 -5.2
  Jan 08, 2022 235   @ LIU Brooklyn L 70-75 OT 26%     3 - 11 0 - 4 -6.5 -9.8 +3.9
  Jan 15, 2022 289   @ Merrimack W 62-46 38%     4 - 11 1 - 4 +11.0 -9.1 +20.4
  Jan 17, 2022 227   @ Bryant L 52-82 24%     4 - 12 1 - 5 -30.7 -24.4 -5.2
  Jan 21, 2022 343   Central Connecticut St. W 74-67 77%    
  Jan 23, 2022 284   Sacred Heart W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 27, 2022 127   @ Wagner L 63-76 10%    
  Jan 29, 2022 282   @ Mount St. Mary's L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 03, 2022 227   Bryant L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 05, 2022 289   Merrimack W 63-61 58%    
  Feb 10, 2022 341   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-73 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 282   Mount St. Mary's W 65-64 57%    
  Feb 17, 2022 235   LIU Brooklyn L 73-75 46%    
  Feb 19, 2022 328   St. Francis Brooklyn W 73-68 71%    
  Feb 24, 2022 343   @ Central Connecticut St. W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 26, 2022 284   @ Sacred Heart L 70-73 35%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 2.9 1.3 0.2 5.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 5.2 3.0 0.3 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 8.2 5.0 0.5 16.2 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 9.4 6.8 0.7 19.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 8.9 7.1 1.0 0.0 19.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 6.6 5.6 0.9 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.6 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.5 12.6 17.7 19.9 18.2 12.2 6.8 2.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 72.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 15.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 16.0% 16.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 23.5% 23.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
11-7 2.5% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 0.4 2.1
10-8 6.8% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.8 6.0
9-9 12.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.6 11.6
8-10 18.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 17.9
7-11 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.9
6-12 17.7% 17.7
5-13 12.6% 12.6
4-14 6.5% 6.5
3-15 2.5% 2.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%