Hartford
America East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#278
Expected Predictive Rating-10.8#321
Pace69.8#144
Improvement+2.3#77

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#237
First Shot-1.1#219
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#270
Layup/Dunks+0.7#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#63
Freethrows-2.5#333
Improvement-0.7#222

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#303
First Shot-7.1#347
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#18
Layups/Dunks-4.4#323
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#299
Freethrows-0.5#234
Improvement+2.9#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 4.8% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.7% 15.9% 2.9%
.500 or above in Conference 29.6% 60.7% 27.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 1.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 1.0% 6.6%
First Four1.9% 3.3% 1.8%
First Round1.3% 3.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Away) - 5.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 49 - 1010 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 127   @ Wagner L 59-77 14%     0 - 1 -13.0 -9.0 -4.6
  Nov 12, 2021 225   Campbell L 67-68 36%     0 - 2 -4.0 -2.9 -1.2
  Nov 13, 2021 266   Army L 79-86 46%     0 - 3 -12.5 +1.2 -13.5
  Nov 18, 2021 198   Boston University L 70-75 40%     0 - 4 -9.1 +0.5 -10.0
  Nov 23, 2021 289   @ Merrimack L 60-75 44%     0 - 5 -20.0 -4.2 -17.9
  Nov 29, 2021 185   @ Appalachian St. L 59-69 22%     0 - 6 -8.4 -10.0 +1.2
  Dec 01, 2021 183   @ Winthrop L 75-82 21%     0 - 7 -5.3 -1.3 -3.9
  Dec 05, 2021 328   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 68-55 57%     1 - 7 +4.5 -12.8 +16.6
  Dec 11, 2021 108   UNLV L 78-95 15%     1 - 8 -12.7 +6.6 -19.0
  Dec 14, 2021 301   St. Francis (PA) L 66-81 65%     1 - 9 -25.6 -14.2 -10.9
  Dec 18, 2021 343   @ Central Connecticut St. L 65-75 64%     1 - 10 -20.4 -9.4 -11.5
  Dec 22, 2021 284   @ Sacred Heart W 78-71 42%     2 - 10 +2.4 -1.8 +3.9
  Jan 19, 2022 230   New Hampshire W 69-57 48%     3 - 10 1 - 0 +6.0 +5.6 +2.8
  Jan 22, 2022 79   @ Vermont L 62-78 6%    
  Jan 26, 2022 310   Binghamton W 73-69 68%    
  Jan 29, 2022 262   Umass Lowell W 71-70 57%    
  Jan 31, 2022 349   @ Maine W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 02, 2022 230   @ New Hampshire L 64-70 28%    
  Feb 05, 2022 255   Albany W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 09, 2022 254   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 71-75 33%    
  Feb 12, 2022 305   @ NJIT L 68-69 44%    
  Feb 14, 2022 79   Vermont L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 16, 2022 349   Maine W 72-62 84%    
  Feb 19, 2022 224   @ Stony Brook L 70-76 26%    
  Feb 23, 2022 254   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 26, 2022 305   NJIT W 71-67 66%    
  Mar 01, 2022 255   @ Albany L 65-69 33%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 4.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 7.0 2.7 0.2 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 7.6 3.8 0.2 13.2 5th
6th 0.8 6.2 6.1 0.5 13.5 6th
7th 0.5 4.5 7.6 1.2 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.1 7.7 2.6 0.1 14.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.0 6.1 2.5 0.1 14.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.5 11.0 15.4 18.1 17.7 14.3 8.8 4.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 43.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 8.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 17.0% 17.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.5% 15.4% 15.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4
12-6 1.6% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.5
11-7 4.3% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.0
10-8 8.8% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.4 8.5
9-9 14.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.5 13.7
8-10 17.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 17.2
7-11 18.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 17.8
6-12 15.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.3
5-13 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.0
4-14 5.5% 5.5
3-15 2.1% 2.1
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%