Arizona St.
Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#53
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#124
Pace83.1#15
Improvement+1.8#20

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#57
First Shot+6.8#32
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#269
Layup/Dunks+4.4#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#188
Freethrows+3.2#36
Improvement+0.6#87

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#64
First Shot+6.4#29
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#277
Layups/Dunks-3.4#285
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#10
Freethrows+2.4#62
Improvement+1.2#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 2.0% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 4.7% 6.5% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 10.2% 13.5% 5.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.7% 49.6% 28.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.0% 45.7% 26.1%
Average Seed 8.1 8.0 8.7
.500 or above 75.6% 83.5% 62.7%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 65.2% 51.0%
Conference Champion 5.6% 7.0% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 3.0% 6.6%
First Four6.2% 7.0% 4.9%
First Round38.5% 46.1% 26.3%
Second Round20.6% 25.4% 12.9%
Sweet Sixteen7.4% 9.5% 4.2%
Elite Eight2.9% 3.8% 1.6%
Final Four1.2% 1.6% 0.5%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: St. John's (Neutral) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 8
Quad 26 - 49 - 12
Quad 35 - 113 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 27   Colorado L 71-81 37%     0 - 1 +2.7 -5.1 +9.4
  Nov 14, 2019 350   Central Connecticut St. W 90-49 99%     1 - 1 +19.7 -2.9 +17.8
  Nov 17, 2019 199   Rider W 92-55 91%     2 - 1 +31.8 -0.3 +26.1
  Nov 23, 2019 83   St. John's W 85-82 62%    
  Nov 26, 2019 210   @ Princeton W 81-72 80%    
  Dec 03, 2019 86   @ San Francisco W 79-78 51%    
  Dec 07, 2019 225   Louisiana W 92-76 93%    
  Dec 11, 2019 268   Prairie View W 87-69 95%    
  Dec 14, 2019 67   Georgia W 86-82 64%    
  Dec 18, 2019 34   St. Mary's L 70-72 41%    
  Dec 21, 2019 44   Creighton W 82-80 56%    
  Dec 28, 2019 279   Texas Southern W 95-76 96%    
  Jan 04, 2020 12   @ Arizona L 73-83 19%    
  Jan 09, 2020 68   @ Oregon St. L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 11, 2020 13   @ Oregon L 70-80 19%    
  Jan 16, 2020 27   Colorado L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 18, 2020 79   Utah W 86-80 70%    
  Jan 25, 2020 12   Arizona L 76-80 37%    
  Jan 29, 2020 141   @ Washington St. W 83-78 66%    
  Feb 01, 2020 61   @ Washington L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 06, 2020 78   UCLA W 82-76 68%    
  Feb 08, 2020 60   USC W 82-79 62%    
  Feb 13, 2020 81   @ Stanford W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 16, 2020 138   @ California W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 20, 2020 13   Oregon L 73-77 38%    
  Feb 22, 2020 68   Oregon St. W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 27, 2020 78   @ UCLA L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 29, 2020 60   @ USC L 79-82 41%    
  Mar 05, 2020 61   Washington W 74-71 61%    
  Mar 07, 2020 141   Washington St. W 86-75 82%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 5.0 2.8 0.3 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.2 2.9 0.4 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.2 7.7 10.0 11.6 12.5 12.2 11.3 9.0 6.7 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 93.9% 0.8    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 66.9% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.0
14-4 38.5% 1.6    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 14.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 51.9% 48.1% 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.9% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 3.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.3% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 4.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.3% 98.8% 18.8% 80.0% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
13-5 6.7% 95.3% 16.4% 78.9% 7.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 94.3%
12-6 9.0% 88.2% 10.7% 77.6% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.1 1.1 86.8%
11-7 11.3% 72.0% 7.7% 64.4% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 3.2 69.7%
10-8 12.2% 52.7% 4.4% 48.3% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.8 50.6%
9-9 12.5% 27.8% 2.5% 25.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 9.0 25.9%
8-10 11.6% 8.5% 1.4% 7.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.6 7.3%
7-11 10.0% 2.9% 1.4% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.7 1.5%
6-12 7.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.1%
5-13 5.2% 0.5% 0.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
4-14 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 1.7
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 41.7% 5.9% 35.8% 8.1 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.9 4.2 5.4 6.3 7.0 7.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 58.3 38.0%