East Carolina
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#222
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#235
Pace72.9#88
Improvement+4.7#16

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#233
First Shot-3.8#294
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#56
Layup/Dunks+0.8#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#208
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#338
Freethrows+2.2#40
Improvement-0.2#190

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#213
First Shot-3.6#293
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#39
Layups/Dunks-1.6#244
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#254
Freethrows-2.5#310
Improvement+4.9#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.5 15.3
.500 or above 0.6% 3.0% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 1.8% 7.5% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 59.1% 33.9% 60.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 6.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 72 - 11
Quad 33 - 65 - 18
Quad 46 - 411 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 290   VMI W 80-68 74%     1 - 0 +1.6 -0.4 +2.1
  Nov 08, 2019 218   @ Navy L 57-62 39%     1 - 1 -5.6 -13.2 +7.4
  Nov 12, 2019 204   @ Appalachian St. L 62-68 36%     1 - 2 -5.9 -8.9 +2.8
  Nov 16, 2019 63   Liberty L 57-77 21%     1 - 3 -14.9 -4.1 -13.5
  Nov 22, 2019 252   Evansville W 85-68 56%     2 - 3 +11.9 +3.6 +7.0
  Nov 23, 2019 242   UMKC L 68-74 53%     2 - 4 -10.4 -5.6 -4.9
  Nov 24, 2019 239   Rice L 69-77 53%     2 - 5 -12.2 -10.8 -1.0
  Nov 30, 2019 266   @ James Madison L 89-99 48%     2 - 6 -13.1 +8.9 -21.5
  Dec 03, 2019 334   Coppin St. L 75-85 84%     2 - 7 -24.1 -10.4 -12.7
  Dec 14, 2019 260   Campbell W 79-67 68%     3 - 7 +3.7 -3.6 +6.2
  Dec 17, 2019 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 71-57 95%     4 - 7 -8.5 -10.4 +0.7
  Dec 22, 2019 182   Charlotte W 60-56 50%     5 - 7 +0.4 -10.8 +11.2
  Dec 28, 2019 311   Eastern Kentucky W 82-74 79%     6 - 7 -4.1 -10.9 +5.5
  Jan 01, 2020 42   @ Wichita St. L 69-75 6%     6 - 8 0 - 1 +7.6 +5.1 +2.6
  Jan 07, 2020 113   South Florida W 62-59 33%     7 - 8 1 - 1 +4.1 -6.1 +10.3
  Jan 11, 2020 76   SMU W 71-68 22%     8 - 8 2 - 1 +7.4 +5.2 +2.5
  Jan 15, 2020 97   Tulsa L 49-65 29%     8 - 9 2 - 2 -13.7 -17.0 +2.0
  Jan 19, 2020 50   @ Cincinnati L 61-77 6%    
  Jan 22, 2020 76   @ SMU L 64-78 10%    
  Jan 25, 2020 169   Tulane L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 29, 2020 28   Houston L 65-78 11%    
  Feb 01, 2020 83   @ Temple L 62-75 11%    
  Feb 06, 2020 109   Central Florida L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 08, 2020 169   @ Tulane L 69-75 27%    
  Feb 12, 2020 97   @ Tulsa L 62-73 14%    
  Feb 16, 2020 50   Cincinnati L 64-75 17%    
  Feb 19, 2020 29   @ Memphis L 66-85 4%    
  Feb 23, 2020 83   Temple L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 26, 2020 113   @ South Florida L 61-71 17%    
  Feb 29, 2020 78   Connecticut L 66-74 25%    
  Mar 08, 2020 109   @ Central Florida L 63-73 16%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.1 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.6 2.9 0.2 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 6.6 6.6 0.8 0.0 15.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 9.5 10.5 2.3 0.1 24.4 11th
12th 7.2 16.8 13.7 3.6 0.2 41.5 12th
Total 7.2 18.7 24.3 21.8 14.6 7.9 3.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 4.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.4% 0.4
9-9 1.3% 1.3
8-10 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 3.6
7-11 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 7.9
6-12 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
5-13 21.8% 21.8
4-14 24.3% 24.3
3-15 18.7% 18.7
2-16 7.2% 7.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.7%