Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#43
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#73
Pace64.1#310
Improvement+3.1#47

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#23
First Shot+2.0#111
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#2
Layup/Dunks+3.5#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#308
Freethrows+0.9#110
Improvement+0.7#139

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#83
First Shot+5.0#50
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#289
Layups/Dunks+1.4#111
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#49
Freethrows-0.6#220
Improvement+2.5#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.6% 5.1% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.9% 44.7% 25.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.7% 40.4% 21.8%
Average Seed 9.3 9.1 9.7
.500 or above 96.0% 98.3% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 81.6% 56.3%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four8.7% 9.5% 7.7%
First Round33.0% 40.4% 22.1%
Second Round16.8% 20.9% 10.7%
Sweet Sixteen6.1% 7.7% 3.6%
Elite Eight2.6% 3.3% 1.6%
Final Four0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Arkansas (Home) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 8
Quad 26 - 38 - 11
Quad 38 - 216 - 13
Quad 44 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 152   Florida International W 77-69 88%     1 - 0 +5.8 +4.0 +2.0
  Nov 08, 2019 186   Sam Houston St. W 67-58 91%     2 - 0 +5.3 -4.5 +10.2
  Nov 14, 2019 258   Louisiana Monroe W 62-45 95%     3 - 0 +8.7 -9.2 +19.7
  Nov 17, 2019 322   New Orleans W 82-59 98%     4 - 0 +10.3 +3.9 +7.0
  Nov 21, 2019 168   Tulane W 80-66 84%     5 - 0 +14.0 +7.7 +6.5
  Nov 22, 2019 23   Villanova L 76-83 41%     5 - 1 +6.2 +11.7 -5.8
  Nov 24, 2019 165   @ Coastal Carolina W 81-56 77%     6 - 1 +27.9 +8.7 +19.3
  Dec 05, 2019 87   Louisiana Tech L 67-74 76%     6 - 2 -3.7 +7.9 -12.9
  Dec 14, 2019 82   Kansas St. W 67-61 66%     7 - 2 +12.7 +3.2 +9.8
  Dec 18, 2019 145   Radford W 77-68 87%     8 - 2 +7.4 +15.8 -6.8
  Dec 22, 2019 94   New Mexico St. L 52-58 70%     8 - 3 -0.6 -10.0 +8.5
  Dec 30, 2019 109   Kent St. W 96-68 82%     9 - 3 +29.2 +19.6 +8.7
  Jan 04, 2020 26   Auburn L 68-80 54%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -2.2 -4.4 +3.0
  Jan 08, 2020 35   @ Alabama L 69-90 36%     9 - 5 0 - 2 -6.6 -0.8 -4.6
  Jan 11, 2020 32   @ LSU L 59-60 35%     9 - 6 0 - 3 +13.8 -5.2 +18.9
  Jan 14, 2020 63   Missouri W 72-45 71%     10 - 6 1 - 3 +32.0 +10.1 +24.7
  Jan 18, 2020 73   Georgia W 91-59 73%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +36.4 +28.6 +11.0
  Jan 22, 2020 39   Arkansas W 70-68 60%    
  Jan 25, 2020 47   @ Oklahoma L 69-71 40%    
  Jan 28, 2020 19   @ Florida L 63-69 28%    
  Feb 01, 2020 52   Tennessee W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 04, 2020 14   @ Kentucky L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 08, 2020 150   Vanderbilt W 78-65 88%    
  Feb 11, 2020 102   @ Mississippi W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 15, 2020 39   @ Arkansas L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 19, 2020 92   South Carolina W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 22, 2020 132   @ Texas A&M W 65-59 70%    
  Feb 25, 2020 35   Alabama W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 29, 2020 63   @ Missouri W 66-65 50%    
  Mar 03, 2020 92   @ South Carolina W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 07, 2020 102   Mississippi W 74-65 80%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.4 0.1 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.7 3.4 0.2 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.4 4.9 6.1 0.9 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 8.3 2.3 0.1 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 7.5 4.7 0.3 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.1 6.2 0.7 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.2 2.7 5.3 1.6 0.0 9.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.7 1.9 0.1 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.4 0.2 4.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.0 8.5 14.1 18.9 19.7 16.3 10.3 4.5 1.4 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 84.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 49.1% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.0% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 97.4% 17.2% 80.2% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9%
14-4 1.4% 99.1% 21.5% 77.7% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
13-5 4.5% 93.8% 16.0% 77.8% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 92.7%
12-6 10.3% 81.7% 13.2% 68.5% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 78.9%
11-7 16.3% 61.6% 9.8% 51.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.7 2.9 0.4 6.3 57.4%
10-8 19.7% 39.3% 5.7% 33.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 11.9 35.6%
9-9 18.9% 20.2% 3.1% 17.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 15.1 17.6%
8-10 14.1% 5.8% 2.3% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 13.3 3.6%
7-11 8.5% 2.0% 1.4% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.3 0.7%
6-12 4.0% 1.4% 1.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.9% 6.2% 30.7% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.9 4.6 5.9 7.8 10.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 63.1 32.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.3 25.0 41.7 16.7 16.7