Penn St.
Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#27
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#18
Pace73.8#82
Improvement+0.0#176

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#39
First Shot-3.3#278
After Offensive Rebound+9.2#1
Layup/Dunks-5.5#320
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#84
Freethrows-0.5#193
Improvement-0.3#234

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#31
First Shot+8.7#7
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#281
Layups/Dunks+1.0#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#32
Freethrows+3.5#28
Improvement+0.4#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.2% 3.4% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 15.5% 16.3% 5.9%
Top 6 Seed 32.5% 34.1% 13.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.4% 64.7% 35.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.6% 62.9% 33.8%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 7.6
.500 or above 91.6% 92.7% 78.4%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 68.4% 46.2%
Conference Champion 4.3% 4.6% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.1% 2.6%
First Four5.4% 5.4% 5.2%
First Round59.9% 62.2% 32.2%
Second Round38.3% 40.1% 16.9%
Sweet Sixteen18.5% 19.5% 7.1%
Elite Eight7.6% 7.9% 3.3%
Final Four3.4% 3.5% 2.4%
Championship Game1.1% 1.1% 1.6%
National Champion0.4% 0.3% 0.8%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 92.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 8
Quad 26 - 210 - 10
Quad 35 - 116 - 11
Quad 45 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 349   Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-46 99%     1 - 0 +17.8 +17.6 +0.6
  Nov 09, 2019 335   Wagner W 91-64 99%     2 - 0 +12.1 +0.7 +8.2
  Nov 14, 2019 77   @ Georgetown W 81-66 60%     3 - 0 +24.9 +1.8 +21.3
  Nov 19, 2019 151   Bucknell W 83-68 92%    
  Nov 23, 2019 126   Yale W 81-68 89%    
  Nov 27, 2019 46   Mississippi W 74-72 55%    
  Dec 04, 2019 106   Wake Forest W 80-68 87%    
  Dec 07, 2019 10   @ Ohio St. L 64-72 25%    
  Dec 10, 2019 9   Maryland L 73-75 42%    
  Dec 14, 2019 68   Alabama W 84-77 75%    
  Dec 20, 2019 350   Central Connecticut St. W 91-58 99.9%   
  Dec 29, 2019 270   Cornell W 83-62 98%    
  Jan 04, 2020 62   Iowa W 81-77 64%    
  Jan 07, 2020 89   @ Rutgers W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 11, 2020 26   Wisconsin W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 15, 2020 72   @ Minnesota W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 18, 2020 10   Ohio St. L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 22, 2020 30   @ Michigan L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 29, 2020 41   Indiana W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 01, 2020 133   @ Nebraska W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 04, 2020 1   @ Michigan St. L 68-79 15%    
  Feb 08, 2020 72   Minnesota W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 11, 2020 17   @ Purdue L 67-71 33%    
  Feb 15, 2020 109   Northwestern W 73-61 84%    
  Feb 18, 2020 55   Illinois W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 23, 2020 41   @ Indiana L 74-76 46%    
  Feb 26, 2020 89   Rutgers W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 29, 2020 62   @ Iowa W 79-78 52%    
  Mar 03, 2020 1   Michigan St. L 71-76 33%    
  Mar 07, 2020 109   @ Northwestern W 70-64 69%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.3 1.4 0.9 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.8 2.4 0.4 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 2.8 5.0 2.1 0.3 10.5 5th
6th 0.6 2.7 4.1 2.6 0.2 10.2 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 4.7 3.2 0.5 0.1 11.0 7th
8th 0.3 2.4 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.3 3.0 0.5 7.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 4.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.6 6.1 9.4 9.9 10.9 11.2 11.6 10.3 9.9 6.6 3.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 100.0% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
17-3 59.6% 1.3    0.7 0.4 0.2
16-4 40.3% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
15-5 8.2% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 3.3% 96.7% 1.9 0.0 0.1 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 2.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.4 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.0% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 3.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.6% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 4.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.2 100.0%
14-6 9.9% 99.9% 8.2% 91.8% 5.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 2.1 2.9 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.9%
13-7 10.3% 98.6% 6.2% 92.4% 6.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.0 2.0 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.6%
12-8 11.6% 91.5% 3.3% 88.2% 7.5 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.0 91.2%
11-9 11.2% 79.0% 1.2% 77.8% 8.7 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.3 2.4 78.7%
10-10 10.9% 55.3% 1.2% 54.2% 9.8 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.7 1.6 0.7 4.9 54.8%
9-11 9.9% 33.4% 0.7% 32.7% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.5 0.2 0.1 6.6 33.0%
8-12 9.4% 7.7% 1.4% 6.3% 10.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.6 6.4%
7-13 6.1% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 10.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.3%
6-14 3.6% 3.6
5-15 2.3% 2.3
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 62.4% 4.8% 57.7% 6.6 0.9 2.3 5.8 6.6 8.1 8.9 7.4 5.2 4.9 5.7 5.4 1.2 0.1 37.6 60.6%