Penn St.
Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#29
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#25
Pace74.9#54
Improvement-1.3#239

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#29
First Shot+3.8#65
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#20
Layup/Dunks+2.5#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#196
Freethrows+0.5#137
Improvement+1.7#79

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#47
First Shot+7.0#25
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#289
Layups/Dunks+3.4#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#102
Freethrows+1.7#70
Improvement-3.0#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 2.6% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 12.7% 22.3% 7.5%
Top 6 Seed 37.8% 55.0% 28.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.4% 90.9% 73.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.5% 90.4% 72.2%
Average Seed 6.9 6.1 7.4
.500 or above 98.8% 99.8% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 56.4% 74.1% 46.8%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.8% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four5.3% 3.0% 6.6%
First Round76.9% 89.5% 69.9%
Second Round47.3% 58.7% 41.0%
Sweet Sixteen20.4% 27.0% 16.7%
Elite Eight8.4% 11.2% 6.8%
Final Four3.4% 4.6% 2.7%
Championship Game1.2% 1.7% 0.9%
National Champion0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 35.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 9
Quad 25 - 213 - 11
Quad 33 - 116 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 352   Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-46 99.6%    1 - 0 +14.9 +9.5 +5.8
  Nov 09, 2019 324   Wagner W 91-64 98%     2 - 0 +14.1 +0.0 +10.8
  Nov 14, 2019 47   @ Georgetown W 81-66 47%     3 - 0 +28.1 +1.9 +24.4
  Nov 19, 2019 227   Bucknell W 98-70 95%     4 - 0 +21.2 +16.5 +3.1
  Nov 23, 2019 72   Yale W 58-56 77%     5 - 0 +6.5 -7.4 +14.0
  Nov 27, 2019 102   Mississippi L 72-74 76%     5 - 1 +2.7 -4.3 +7.1
  Nov 29, 2019 51   Syracuse W 85-64 60%     6 - 1 +30.7 +11.2 +18.4
  Dec 04, 2019 109   Wake Forest W 76-54 85%     7 - 1 +23.1 -3.4 +24.7
  Dec 07, 2019 13   @ Ohio St. L 74-106 31%     7 - 2 0 - 1 -14.5 +9.9 -24.4
  Dec 10, 2019 6   Maryland W 76-69 46%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +20.4 +9.5 +10.6
  Dec 14, 2019 40   Alabama W 73-71 65%     9 - 2 +10.2 -5.1 +15.0
  Dec 20, 2019 350   Central Connecticut St. W 87-58 99%     10 - 2 +8.0 +1.1 +5.8
  Dec 29, 2019 283   Cornell W 90-59 97%     11 - 2 +21.1 +14.3 +7.8
  Jan 04, 2020 15   Iowa W 89-86 42%     12 - 2 2 - 1 +17.3 +13.1 +3.9
  Jan 07, 2020 32   @ Rutgers L 61-72 40%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +3.8 -2.4 +6.6
  Jan 11, 2020 24   Wisconsin L 49-58 58%     12 - 4 2 - 3 +1.1 -10.7 +10.7
  Jan 15, 2020 36   @ Minnesota L 69-75 41%     12 - 5 2 - 4 +8.5 +7.6 +0.5
  Jan 18, 2020 13   Ohio St. W 90-76 52%     13 - 5 3 - 4 +25.7 +21.2 +4.3
  Jan 22, 2020 21   @ Michigan L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 29, 2020 42   Indiana W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 01, 2020 121   @ Nebraska W 79-73 72%    
  Feb 04, 2020 4   @ Michigan St. L 72-81 21%    
  Feb 08, 2020 36   Minnesota W 75-72 63%    
  Feb 11, 2020 18   @ Purdue L 64-68 33%    
  Feb 15, 2020 107   Northwestern W 75-64 85%    
  Feb 18, 2020 30   Illinois W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 23, 2020 42   @ Indiana L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 26, 2020 32   Rutgers W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 29, 2020 15   @ Iowa L 77-82 32%    
  Mar 03, 2020 4   Michigan St. L 75-78 39%    
  Mar 07, 2020 107   @ Northwestern W 72-67 67%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 2.4 1.2 0.1 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 4.6 0.7 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.8 6.1 2.1 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 5.5 0.3 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 7.0 2.1 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.2 4.2 5.9 0.3 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 6.8 1.9 0.0 10.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.8 4.8 0.3 10.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.9 1.0 9.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.6 1.5 0.1 7.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.6 7.6 13.0 18.0 19.7 16.8 11.2 5.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 77.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-6 37.8% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 7.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.6% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.3% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 3.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 5.9% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 3.9 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 11.2% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 5.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.5 4.0 2.6 0.9 0.1 100.0%
11-9 16.8% 99.6% 4.6% 95.1% 6.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.9 5.8 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.6%
10-10 19.7% 97.8% 2.5% 95.2% 7.2 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.1 5.2 4.7 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.4 97.7%
9-11 18.0% 85.8% 2.2% 83.7% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.2 0.1 2.6 85.5%
8-12 13.0% 50.1% 1.1% 49.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 3.0 0.5 6.5 49.6%
7-13 7.6% 17.0% 0.4% 16.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 6.3 16.6%
6-14 3.6% 4.1% 0.6% 3.5% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.4 3.5%
5-15 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 1.1 0.5%
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 79.4% 3.9% 75.5% 6.9 0.2 1.0 4.8 6.6 11.3 13.9 11.7 10.3 6.8 5.6 6.1 1.0 20.6 78.5%