St. John's
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#69
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#74
Pace79.2#19
Improvement+0.1#174

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#121
First Shot+0.6#153
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#82
Layup/Dunks+3.4#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#278
Freethrows+0.2#157
Improvement-2.3#296

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#45
First Shot+7.3#16
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#307
Layups/Dunks+3.1#61
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#35
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#97
Freethrows+0.2#180
Improvement+2.4#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.2% 23.8% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.0% 22.4% 7.3%
Average Seed 9.9 9.7 10.3
.500 or above 76.3% 91.3% 67.1%
.500 or above in Conference 4.4% 9.1% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 29.0% 16.3% 36.7%
First Four4.9% 7.2% 3.5%
First Round11.4% 19.5% 6.5%
Second Round4.6% 7.9% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 2.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Home) - 37.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 11
Quad 23 - 37 - 14
Quad 32 - 19 - 15
Quad 48 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 221   Mercer W 109-79 90%     1 - 0 +23.5 +15.3 +3.5
  Nov 09, 2019 350   Central Connecticut St. W 87-57 99%     2 - 0 +8.4 -9.9 +13.7
  Nov 12, 2019 293   New Hampshire W 74-61 94%     3 - 0 +2.7 -4.5 +6.5
  Nov 16, 2019 86   Vermont L 68-70 65%     3 - 1 +1.6 -4.0 +5.7
  Nov 20, 2019 255   Columbia W 82-63 92%     4 - 1 +10.8 -0.5 +9.6
  Nov 23, 2019 65   Arizona St. L 67-80 49%     4 - 2 -5.1 -4.4 +0.2
  Nov 24, 2019 195   Massachusetts W 78-63 82%     5 - 2 +12.9 +0.7 +11.6
  Nov 30, 2019 333   Wagner W 86-63 97%     6 - 2 +9.0 -3.6 +10.3
  Dec 03, 2019 238   St. Peter's W 79-69 91%     7 - 2 +2.6 +1.5 +0.4
  Dec 07, 2019 6   West Virginia W 70-68 28%     8 - 2 +15.7 -1.9 +17.3
  Dec 10, 2019 202   Brown W 82-71 89%     9 - 2 +5.5 +7.2 -1.7
  Dec 18, 2019 229   Albany W 85-57 90%     10 - 2 +21.2 +0.5 +17.4
  Dec 21, 2019 11   Arizona W 70-67 24%     11 - 2 +18.0 +3.6 +14.4
  Dec 31, 2019 21   Butler L 58-60 40%     11 - 3 0 - 1 +8.3 -7.5 +15.8
  Jan 05, 2020 52   @ Xavier L 67-75 32%     11 - 4 0 - 2 +4.6 -2.7 +7.8
  Jan 08, 2020 49   @ Georgetown L 66-87 30%     11 - 5 0 - 3 -8.1 -8.3 +2.0
  Jan 11, 2020 78   DePaul W 74-67 64%     12 - 5 1 - 3 +10.9 -0.1 +10.7
  Jan 15, 2020 62   @ Providence L 58-63 37%     12 - 6 1 - 4 +6.1 -8.2 +14.3
  Jan 18, 2020 10   Seton Hall L 79-82 32%     12 - 7 1 - 5 +9.6 +4.8 +5.1
  Jan 21, 2020 26   @ Marquette L 68-82 22%     12 - 8 1 - 6 +1.8 -0.6 +2.9
  Jan 25, 2020 78   @ DePaul W 79-66 42%     13 - 8 2 - 6 +22.7 +3.2 +18.2
  Jan 28, 2020 16   Villanova L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 02, 2020 49   Georgetown W 80-79 53%    
  Feb 08, 2020 28   @ Creighton L 72-80 23%    
  Feb 12, 2020 62   Providence W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 17, 2020 52   Xavier W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 23, 2020 10   @ Seton Hall L 68-79 16%    
  Feb 26, 2020 16   @ Villanova L 67-76 19%    
  Mar 01, 2020 28   Creighton L 75-77 43%    
  Mar 04, 2020 21   @ Butler L 64-73 22%    
  Mar 07, 2020 26   Marquette L 76-78 42%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 1.5 0.1 3.8 5th
6th 0.3 3.1 4.3 0.7 8.3 6th
7th 0.4 4.4 7.9 2.2 0.1 14.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.9 11.5 4.4 0.2 22.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.6 9.6 13.7 6.4 0.6 33.1 9th
10th 1.3 4.8 5.7 2.8 0.3 14.9 10th
Total 1.5 7.4 16.1 22.7 22.9 16.1 8.8 3.3 0.9 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.2% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.9% 97.5% 11.0% 86.4% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
9-9 3.3% 84.8% 5.8% 79.0% 8.9 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.5 83.9%
8-10 8.8% 64.1% 3.6% 60.6% 10.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.1 0.2 3.2 62.8%
7-11 16.1% 21.7% 2.0% 19.7% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 0.7 12.6 20.1%
6-12 22.9% 3.9% 0.9% 3.0% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 22.0 3.0%
5-13 22.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 22.5 0.3%
4-14 16.1% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 16.1
3-15 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 7.4
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.2% 1.4% 12.8% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.9 1.2 0.0 85.8 13.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%