South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#194
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#195
Pace64.6#298
Improvement+0.6#121

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#184
First Shot+4.1#74
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#353
Layup/Dunks-2.7#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#35
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#98
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement+1.5#37

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#215
First Shot-2.6#262
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#106
Layups/Dunks-2.8#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#293
Freethrows+2.2#58
Improvement-0.9#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.4% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 55.4% 68.7% 44.3%
.500 or above in Conference 57.3% 63.9% 51.8%
Conference Champion 3.2% 4.2% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.4% 4.6%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round3.4% 4.2% 2.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Away) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 411 - 414 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 312   @ Buffalo W 70-56 64%     1 - 0 +8.6 -5.1 +13.9
  Nov 14, 2023 9   @ Alabama L 46-102 3%     1 - 1 -36.1 -20.5 -16.4
  Nov 16, 2023 240   Nicholls St. L 97-102 3OT 70%     1 - 2 -12.2 -4.1 -6.8
  Nov 17, 2023 254   Denver W 82-75 73%     2 - 2 -1.0 +5.6 -6.1
  Nov 19, 2023 238   SIU Edwardsville W 86-74 70%     3 - 2 +4.9 +19.0 -12.8
  Nov 25, 2023 59   @ Maryland L 55-68 11%     3 - 3 -1.1 -2.0 -0.6
  Nov 30, 2023 230   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 06, 2023 257   @ Mercer W 66-65 51%    
  Dec 21, 2023 350   Alabama A&M W 78-64 90%    
  Dec 30, 2023 181   @ Old Dominion L 64-68 38%    
  Jan 04, 2024 117   Appalachian St. L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 06, 2024 186   Georgia St. W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 11, 2024 67   @ James Madison L 71-84 13%    
  Jan 13, 2024 170   @ Marshall L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 18, 2024 212   Troy W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 20, 2024 152   Louisiana W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 25, 2024 281   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 27, 2024 212   @ Troy L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 01, 2024 216   @ Texas St. L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 03, 2024 152   @ Louisiana L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 07, 2024 318   Georgia Southern W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 15, 2024 216   Texas St. W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 17, 2024 213   Arkansas St. W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 22, 2024 202   @ Southern Miss L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 24, 2024 213   @ Arkansas St. L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 28, 2024 202   Southern Miss W 70-67 62%    
  Mar 01, 2024 281   Louisiana Monroe W 71-63 75%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 3.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.4 3.6 4.2 0.8 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 5.1 1.5 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.8 2.6 0.2 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.7 3.7 0.5 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.7 1.0 0.1 7.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.2 1.5 0.1 6.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 1.5 0.3 5.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.2 3.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.7 8.0 10.6 12.7 13.0 12.4 11.4 8.7 6.1 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 82.9% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 52.3% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
14-4 28.7% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 14.7% 14.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 21.9% 21.9% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 1.7% 15.2% 15.2% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4
14-4 3.3% 11.7% 11.7% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.0
13-5 6.1% 9.0% 9.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 5.5
12-6 8.7% 6.2% 6.2% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.1
11-7 11.4% 4.9% 4.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.8
10-8 12.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 12.1
9-9 13.0% 2.6% 2.6% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.7
8-10 12.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.5
7-11 10.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.5
6-12 8.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.9
5-13 5.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-14 3.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 96.5 0.0%