American
Patriot League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#261
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#282
Pace59.6#355
Improvement+2.8#59

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#219
First Shot-1.2#209
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#198
Layup/Dunks-1.1#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#34
Freethrows-2.2#320
Improvement-2.5#308

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#282
First Shot-3.7#301
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#178
Layups/Dunks-0.8#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#307
Freethrows+1.2#103
Improvement+5.3#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 8.3% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.0% 3.8% 4.5%
First Round5.7% 6.2% 3.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 76.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 30 - 31 - 6
Quad 415 - 816 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 29   @ Villanova L 63-90 4%     0 - 1 -11.7 +2.4 -15.4
  Nov 09, 2023 318   @ William & Mary L 56-75 57%     0 - 2 -25.8 -18.2 -8.3
  Nov 13, 2023 355   Siena W 78-58 88%     1 - 2 +2.0 +5.5 -1.8
  Nov 16, 2023 334   NJIT W 87-73 81%     2 - 2 -0.3 +7.9 -8.1
  Nov 19, 2023 175   @ Georgetown L 83-88 OT 25%     2 - 3 -2.9 +2.9 -5.5
  Nov 22, 2023 249   Mount St. Mary's W 68-65 58%     3 - 3 -4.2 -2.0 -2.0
  Nov 29, 2023 216   @ Harvard L 75-80 32%     3 - 4 -5.2 +6.3 -11.7
  Dec 02, 2023 354   St. Francis (PA) L 73-75 88%     3 - 5 -19.7 -3.5 -16.3
  Dec 06, 2023 116   @ Saint Joseph's L 53-69 15%     3 - 6 -9.8 -4.0 -10.0
  Dec 09, 2023 358   @ VMI W 77-69 78%     4 - 6 -5.4 +8.3 -12.9
  Dec 21, 2023 59   @ Virginia Tech L 55-77 7%     4 - 7 -10.3 -3.4 -11.1
  Dec 29, 2023 270   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 87-85 41%     5 - 7 -0.8 +8.4 -9.3
  Jan 03, 2024 271   Lehigh W 75-66 62%     6 - 7 1 - 0 +0.8 +0.1 +0.7
  Jan 06, 2024 292   @ Bucknell W 71-63 47%     7 - 7 2 - 0 +3.7 +12.1 -6.7
  Jan 10, 2024 295   @ Boston University L 68-72 48%     7 - 8 2 - 1 -8.5 +2.5 -11.5
  Jan 13, 2024 330   Army W 79-60 80%     8 - 8 3 - 1 +5.1 +11.3 -4.4
  Jan 15, 2024 343   @ Loyola Maryland W 66-52 68%     9 - 8 4 - 1 +4.0 -3.2 +8.7
  Jan 20, 2024 271   @ Lehigh L 68-70 41%     9 - 9 4 - 2 -4.8 -2.4 -2.4
  Jan 24, 2024 348   Holy Cross W 84-65 85%     10 - 9 5 - 2 +2.9 +3.8 -0.4
  Jan 27, 2024 141   Colgate L 54-73 35%     10 - 10 5 - 3 -20.2 -8.2 -15.5
  Jan 31, 2024 307   @ Lafayette W 69-66 51%     11 - 10 6 - 3 -2.4 +6.5 -8.5
  Feb 03, 2024 292   Bucknell W 75-66 OT 67%     12 - 10 7 - 3 -0.8 +0.3 -0.8
  Feb 07, 2024 343   Loyola Maryland L 43-44 83%     12 - 11 7 - 4 -16.5 -25.7 +9.0
  Feb 10, 2024 348   @ Holy Cross L 56-58 71%     12 - 12 7 - 5 -12.7 -12.2 -0.9
  Feb 14, 2024 323   @ Navy W 59-42 57%     13 - 12 8 - 5 +10.1 -4.1 +17.6
  Feb 17, 2024 307   Lafayette L 62-68 71%     13 - 13 8 - 6 -16.8 -3.9 -13.8
  Feb 21, 2024 295   Boston University L 52-67 68%     13 - 14 8 - 7 -25.0 -10.0 -18.9
  Feb 25, 2024 141   @ Colgate W 66-64 19%     14 - 14 9 - 7 +6.2 +1.6 +4.8
  Feb 28, 2024 330   @ Army W 73-51 63%     15 - 14 10 - 7 +13.6 +18.0 +0.8
  Mar 02, 2024 323   Navy W 69-62 76%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 15.3 76.4 91.7 2nd
3rd 8.3 8.3 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 23.6 76.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 76.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.9 0.0 0.9 5.4 70.1
10-8 23.6% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4 22.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.9 6.8 92.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 76.4% 8.3% 15.9 0.0 1.1 7.1
Lose Out 23.6% 6.2% 16.0 0.2 6.0