Colgate
Patriot League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#139
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#150
Pace67.2#237
Improvement+0.9#99

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#142
First Shot+1.4#146
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#187
Layup/Dunks-3.4#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#38
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#119
Freethrows-0.5#213
Improvement+0.7#107

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#156
First Shot+0.9#142
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#222
Layups/Dunks+4.8#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#239
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#342
Freethrows+2.6#39
Improvement+0.1#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.1% 68.6% 59.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 95.3% 96.7% 88.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.0% 97.7%
Conference Champion 71.4% 73.0% 64.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four3.0% 2.5% 5.6%
First Round65.7% 67.5% 57.5%
Second Round5.3% 5.7% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Binghamton (Home) - 82.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 23 - 7
Quad 416 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 222   Brown W 72-70 76%     1 - 0 -3.9 -4.3 +0.4
  Nov 14, 2023 95   @ Syracuse L 75-79 26%     1 - 1 +4.0 +0.8 +3.5
  Nov 17, 2023 87   Yale L 50-68 34%     1 - 2 -12.1 -15.4 +1.5
  Nov 18, 2023 177   Gardner-Webb W 59-52 58%     2 - 2 +6.4 -5.1 +12.1
  Nov 19, 2023 124   Weber St. W 57-55 44%     3 - 2 +5.0 +3.9 +1.7
  Nov 22, 2023 138   Harvard L 70-76 61%     3 - 3 -7.3 +3.0 -10.9
  Nov 29, 2023 259   Binghamton W 76-66 82%    
  Dec 02, 2023 2   @ Arizona L 67-88 2%    
  Dec 09, 2023 100   @ Vermont L 66-72 28%    
  Dec 17, 2023 31   @ Illinois L 65-79 9%    
  Dec 21, 2023 158   @ Iona L 72-74 43%    
  Dec 30, 2023 113   @ Cornell L 76-81 32%    
  Jan 03, 2024 308   Loyola Maryland W 74-62 87%    
  Jan 06, 2024 314   @ Navy W 68-61 74%    
  Jan 10, 2024 320   Lafayette W 73-60 88%    
  Jan 13, 2024 324   @ Bucknell W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 17, 2024 323   @ Army W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 20, 2024 307   Boston University W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 22, 2024 265   Lehigh W 78-68 81%    
  Jan 27, 2024 264   @ American W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 31, 2024 323   Army W 73-59 90%    
  Feb 03, 2024 314   Navy W 71-58 88%    
  Feb 07, 2024 307   @ Boston University W 69-63 72%    
  Feb 10, 2024 308   @ Loyola Maryland W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 14, 2024 334   Holy Cross W 77-61 92%    
  Feb 17, 2024 324   Bucknell W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 19, 2024 320   @ Lafayette W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 24, 2024 264   American W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 28, 2024 334   @ Holy Cross W 74-64 81%    
  Mar 02, 2024 265   @ Lehigh W 75-71 64%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 5.9 12.2 16.9 16.8 12.3 5.3 71.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 4.3 5.2 3.3 1.3 0.1 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.0 8.7 12.0 15.7 18.3 17.0 12.3 5.3 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.3    5.3
17-1 100.0% 12.3    12.2 0.1
16-2 99.1% 16.8    16.2 0.7
15-3 92.6% 16.9    14.5 2.4 0.0
14-4 78.0% 12.2    8.6 3.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 49.5% 5.9    2.9 2.4 0.6 0.1
12-6 21.0% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 71.4% 71.4 60.0 9.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.3% 92.3% 92.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.1 0.1 0.4
17-1 12.3% 87.3% 87.3% 13.4 0.1 1.4 4.2 4.1 0.8 0.0 1.6
16-2 17.0% 80.0% 80.0% 13.9 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.5 2.6 0.2 3.4
15-3 18.3% 73.6% 73.6% 14.2 0.2 2.0 6.2 4.6 0.5 4.8
14-4 15.7% 67.5% 67.5% 14.6 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.7 1.2 5.1
13-5 12.0% 55.2% 55.2% 15.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 1.6 5.4
12-6 8.7% 46.0% 46.0% 15.3 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.8 4.7
11-7 5.0% 39.8% 39.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.0
10-8 3.1% 27.2% 27.2% 15.9 0.1 0.8 2.3
9-9 1.5% 19.7% 19.7% 16.0 0.3 1.2
8-10 0.7% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.1 0.6
7-11 0.3% 11.5% 11.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 67.1% 67.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.5 12.8 23.6 18.8 7.8 33.0 0.0%