Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.6#321
Expected Predictive Rating-11.2#331
Pace68.9#167
Improvement+6.0#10

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#305
First Shot-6.7#338
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#85
Layup/Dunks-1.1#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
Freethrows-3.3#352
Improvement+0.3#166

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#313
First Shot-1.9#244
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#339
Layups/Dunks-4.4#323
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows+0.6#155
Improvement+5.7#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 41.6% 72.4% 21.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 48 - 108 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 131   @ Tulane L 71-88 9%     0 - 1 -12.0 -8.5 -1.9
  Nov 13, 2023 162   Stephen F. Austin L 70-96 25%     0 - 2 -28.6 -8.2 -17.8
  Nov 16, 2023 244   Maine L 65-78 30%     0 - 3 -17.1 -3.0 -14.6
  Nov 17, 2023 241   @ North Florida L 74-80 21%     0 - 4 -7.2 -1.8 -5.3
  Nov 18, 2023 279   Presbyterian L 75-78 36%     0 - 5 -9.0 +1.4 -10.5
  Nov 28, 2023 288   @ Louisiana Monroe L 70-74 30%     0 - 6 -8.1 -5.3 -2.8
  Dec 02, 2023 15   @ Baylor L 40-91 1%     0 - 7 -33.0 -25.7 -9.2
  Dec 09, 2023 215   @ Southern Miss L 74-83 19%     0 - 8 -9.2 +6.3 -16.0
  Dec 12, 2023 39   @ Boise St. L 54-95 3%     0 - 9 -27.1 -4.8 -27.5
  Dec 16, 2023 192   Rice L 51-76 32%     0 - 10 -29.7 -21.1 -10.8
  Dec 29, 2023 80   @ LSU L 55-96 5%     0 - 11 -31.2 -16.4 -12.1
  Jan 06, 2024 240   @ Lamar L 70-90 21%     0 - 12 0 - 1 -21.2 -7.3 -12.9
  Jan 08, 2024 91   McNeese St. L 59-68 12%     0 - 13 0 - 2 -5.6 -14.2 +9.0
  Jan 13, 2024 344   Incarnate Word W 97-71 71%     1 - 13 1 - 2 +10.5 +10.4 -1.3
  Jan 15, 2024 357   Houston Christian W 69-64 80%     2 - 13 2 - 2 -13.6 -19.6 +5.6
  Jan 20, 2024 349   @ New Orleans W 92-67 56%     3 - 13 3 - 2 +13.9 +10.0 +3.2
  Jan 22, 2024 289   @ SE Louisiana L 62-71 30%     3 - 14 3 - 3 -13.1 -11.8 -1.5
  Jan 27, 2024 184   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 68-79 30%     3 - 15 3 - 4 -15.0 -0.4 -15.3
  Jan 29, 2024 91   @ McNeese St. L 65-89 5%     3 - 16 3 - 5 -15.1 +1.3 -18.1
  Feb 03, 2024 332   Texas A&M - Commerce W 70-57 66%     4 - 16 4 - 5 -0.9 -2.1 +2.4
  Feb 05, 2024 282   @ Nicholls St. L 66-73 28%     4 - 17 4 - 6 -10.5 +5.0 -17.0
  Feb 10, 2024 289   SE Louisiana L 59-69 50%     4 - 18 4 - 7 -19.6 -14.7 -5.5
  Feb 12, 2024 349   New Orleans W 70-59 75%     5 - 18 5 - 7 -5.5 -12.4 +6.8
  Feb 17, 2024 344   @ Incarnate Word W 81-61 52%     6 - 18 6 - 7 +9.9 +6.1 +4.7
  Feb 19, 2024 184   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 61-72 15%     6 - 19 6 - 8 -9.6 -8.1 -1.5
  Feb 24, 2024 357   @ Houston Christian W 86-73 64%     7 - 19 7 - 8 -0.1 +3.4 -3.9
  Mar 02, 2024 240   Lamar L 72-75 40%    
  Mar 04, 2024 282   Nicholls St. L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 06, 2024 332   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-69 44%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 2.1 4th
5th 4.7 4.8 9.5 5th
6th 18.6 39.8 27.3 2.6 88.4 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 18.6 39.8 32.1 9.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 9.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.4
9-9 32.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 32.0
8-10 39.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 39.8
7-11 18.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.6
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.5
Lose Out 18.6% 0.2% 16.0 0.2