McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#179
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#110
Pace59.1#355
Improvement-2.4#349

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#98
First Shot+4.1#73
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#268
Layup/Dunks+2.8#82
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#143
Freethrows-3.6#340
Improvement-1.8#334

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#286
First Shot-2.9#271
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#227
Layups/Dunks+2.8#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.9#360
Freethrows+2.0#68
Improvement-0.6#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.5% 61.1% 45.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.9 14.6
.500 or above 90.1% 97.5% 88.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.8% 98.2% 95.3%
Conference Champion 52.7% 62.8% 50.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four3.7% 1.6% 4.2%
First Round46.6% 60.3% 43.5%
Second Round2.6% 4.2% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 18.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 31 - 22 - 5
Quad 415 - 518 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 76-65 17%     1 - 0 +20.3 +15.7 +5.4
  Nov 18, 2023 144   @ Western Carolina L 74-76 31%     1 - 1 +2.1 +11.7 -9.8
  Nov 21, 2023 216   Texas St. W 59-48 57%     2 - 1 +8.4 +1.2 +9.7
  Nov 22, 2023 104   @ Louisiana Tech L 62-71 22%     2 - 2 -1.6 +2.7 -5.6
  Nov 28, 2023 88   @ UAB L 67-77 18%    
  Dec 02, 2023 247   Tennessee Martin W 77-70 73%    
  Dec 13, 2023 202   Southern Miss W 70-66 65%    
  Dec 17, 2023 152   Louisiana W 70-69 55%    
  Dec 29, 2023 55   @ Michigan L 64-77 11%    
  Jan 06, 2024 303   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 08, 2024 343   @ Northwestern St. W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 13, 2024 290   SE Louisiana W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 15, 2024 309   Lamar W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 20, 2024 325   @ Incarnate Word W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 22, 2024 316   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 27, 2024 287   New Orleans W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 29, 2024 343   Northwestern St. W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 03, 2024 290   @ SE Louisiana W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 05, 2024 303   Texas A&M - Commerce W 71-61 81%    
  Feb 10, 2024 316   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77-66 82%    
  Feb 12, 2024 358   @ Houston Christian W 82-71 83%    
  Feb 17, 2024 240   @ Nicholls St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 24, 2024 325   Incarnate Word W 78-66 85%    
  Feb 26, 2024 309   @ Lamar W 74-70 64%    
  Mar 02, 2024 240   Nicholls St. W 74-68 71%    
  Mar 04, 2024 358   Houston Christian W 85-68 93%    
  Mar 06, 2024 287   @ New Orleans W 74-71 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.4 10.9 13.1 11.9 7.3 2.6 52.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.8 7.3 4.4 1.4 0.1 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.7 1.5 0.2 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.9 8.7 11.5 14.2 15.5 14.4 12.0 7.3 2.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
17-1 100.0% 7.3    7.2 0.0
16-2 98.9% 11.9    11.1 0.7
15-3 90.5% 13.1    11.1 1.9 0.1
14-4 70.6% 10.9    6.9 3.5 0.5 0.0
13-5 37.9% 5.4    2.2 2.5 0.7 0.1
12-6 12.7% 1.5    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 52.7% 52.7 41.4 9.3 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.6% 87.4% 87.1% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.8%
17-1 7.3% 82.0% 82.0% 13.3 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 1.3
16-2 12.0% 73.3% 73.3% 13.8 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.9 1.8 0.1 3.2
15-3 14.4% 64.4% 64.4% 14.4 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.5 0.6 5.1
14-4 15.5% 53.3% 53.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.0 1.4 7.2
13-5 14.2% 42.6% 42.6% 15.1 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.0 8.2
12-6 11.5% 34.5% 34.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 7.5
11-7 8.7% 24.9% 24.9% 15.7 0.1 0.6 1.5 6.6
10-8 5.9% 17.7% 17.7% 15.9 0.1 0.9 4.9
9-9 3.7% 11.4% 11.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.3
8-10 2.1% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.2 1.9
7-11 1.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.1 1.0
6-12 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 48.5% 48.5% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 7.5 14.4 15.1 9.2 51.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 95.2% 9.4 4.8 3.2 4.8 9.7 8.1 9.7 9.7 24.2 21.0