Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.2#332
Expected Predictive Rating-10.8#328
Pace65.8#258
Improvement-2.6#294

Offense
Total Offense-7.2#340
First Shot-4.5#301
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#333
Layup/Dunks-1.6#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#125
Freethrows-2.0#307
Improvement+0.4#161

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#292
First Shot-4.5#320
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#124
Layups/Dunks-4.6#327
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#114
Freethrows-1.0#252
Improvement-3.0#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 0.0% 7.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Away) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 11 - 6
Quad 31 - 32 - 9
Quad 47 - 108 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 61   @ Texas A&M L 46-78 3%     0 - 1 -20.4 -16.9 -6.8
  Nov 08, 2023 36   @ Texas Tech L 46-73 2%     0 - 2 -12.7 -24.2 +12.6
  Nov 10, 2023 14   @ Kentucky L 61-81 1%     0 - 3 -2.0 -3.6 +0.6
  Nov 12, 2023 171   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 64-86 11%     0 - 4 -19.8 -9.7 -9.2
  Nov 17, 2023 116   @ Saint Joseph's W 57-54 6%     1 - 4 +9.2 -12.1 +21.4
  Nov 20, 2023 360   Stonehill W 97-86 78%     2 - 4 -8.2 +9.5 -18.5
  Nov 26, 2023 278   Denver L 61-71 40%     2 - 5 -18.5 -20.8 +2.3
  Dec 03, 2023 51   @ SMU L 47-90 2%     2 - 6 -30.3 -16.0 -18.0
  Dec 11, 2023 202   Northern Colorado W 101-99 2OT 28%     3 - 6 -3.1 +4.8 -8.2
  Jan 01, 2024 24   @ TCU L 42-77 1%     3 - 7 -19.2 -23.2 +3.8
  Jan 06, 2024 91   McNeese St. L 67-73 9%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -2.6 -1.3 -1.5
  Jan 08, 2024 349   @ New Orleans L 85-88 50%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -14.1 -1.6 -12.2
  Jan 13, 2024 357   Houston Christian L 65-69 76%     3 - 10 0 - 3 -22.6 -15.4 -7.3
  Jan 20, 2024 289   @ SE Louisiana W 68-52 25%     4 - 10 1 - 3 +11.9 +2.3 +11.6
  Jan 22, 2024 240   @ Lamar L 65-76 17%     4 - 11 1 - 4 -12.2 -9.3 -2.8
  Jan 27, 2024 282   Nicholls St. L 84-87 2OT 41%     4 - 12 1 - 5 -11.9 -5.7 -5.9
  Jan 29, 2024 184   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 54-69 25%     4 - 13 1 - 6 -19.0 -15.9 -3.8
  Jan 31, 2024 344   Incarnate Word W 71-66 66%     5 - 13 2 - 6 -10.5 -6.1 -4.1
  Feb 03, 2024 321   @ Northwestern St. L 57-70 34%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -19.9 -13.9 -7.1
  Feb 05, 2024 91   @ McNeese St. L 51-77 4%     5 - 15 2 - 8 -17.1 -10.9 -9.5
  Feb 10, 2024 349   New Orleans W 89-83 70%     6 - 15 3 - 8 -10.5 +3.7 -14.4
  Feb 12, 2024 289   SE Louisiana L 77-79 OT 44%     6 - 16 3 - 9 -11.6 -8.7 -2.7
  Feb 17, 2024 184   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63-86 12%     6 - 17 3 - 10 -21.6 +1.2 -25.6
  Feb 19, 2024 344   @ Incarnate Word W 76-72 OT 46%     7 - 17 4 - 10 -6.1 -12.3 +5.7
  Feb 24, 2024 282   @ Nicholls St. L 70-85 23%     7 - 18 4 - 11 -18.5 -1.9 -17.3
  Mar 02, 2024 357   @ Houston Christian W 75-73 56%    
  Mar 04, 2024 240   Lamar L 68-73 35%    
  Mar 06, 2024 321   Northwestern St. W 69-68 56%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 3.8 3.8 6th
7th 34.3 36.7 8.1 79.1 7th
8th 9.0 3.1 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 4.8 0.1 4.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
Total 13.9 37.5 36.8 11.9 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-12 36.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 36.7
5-13 37.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 37.4
4-14 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.9% 0.2% 16.0 0.2
Lose Out 13.9% 0.1% 16.0 0.1