Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.8#344
Expected Predictive Rating-13.1#343
Pace72.2#78
Improvement-3.5#316

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#317
First Shot-2.1#241
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#353
Layup/Dunks-4.6#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#102
Freethrows+0.1#167
Improvement-2.3#301

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#353
First Shot-4.1#316
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#348
Layups/Dunks-3.1#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows-2.4#319
Improvement-1.2#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 38.1% 6.3% 97.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 64.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 46 - 157 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 26   @ Texas L 56-88 1%     0 - 1 -16.3 -14.8 +1.2
  Nov 11, 2023 195   @ Tulsa L 71-85 11%     0 - 2 -13.4 -6.2 -6.0
  Nov 18, 2023 339   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 100-81 38%     1 - 2 +9.3 +15.4 -7.2
  Nov 22, 2023 182   Jacksonville St. W 67-66 20%     2 - 2 -3.0 -2.3 -0.6
  Nov 25, 2023 254   @ Texas San Antonio L 80-90 16%     2 - 3 -12.0 -7.8 -2.8
  Nov 26, 2023 182   Jacksonville St. L 65-67 14%     2 - 4 -3.3 +0.0 -3.4
  Dec 01, 2023 322   @ Bethune-Cookman L 82-96 29%     2 - 5 -20.9 -8.1 -10.3
  Dec 09, 2023 299   Northern Arizona L 75-76 40%     2 - 6 -11.2 -1.7 -9.5
  Dec 13, 2023 192   @ Rice L 57-80 11%     2 - 7 -22.2 -14.7 -8.5
  Dec 21, 2023 196   @ Illinois-Chicago W 67-66 11%     3 - 7 +1.5 +1.0 +0.5
  Dec 30, 2023 325   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-77 29%     3 - 8 -10.1 -3.2 -6.9
  Jan 06, 2024 184   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65-75 20%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -14.0 -5.2 -9.2
  Jan 08, 2024 240   @ Lamar L 59-75 14%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -17.2 -13.4 -4.2
  Jan 13, 2024 321   @ Northwestern St. L 71-97 29%     3 - 11 0 - 3 -32.9 -8.8 -22.5
  Jan 20, 2024 91   McNeese St. L 66-80 7%     3 - 12 0 - 4 -10.6 -7.0 -3.1
  Jan 22, 2024 282   Nicholls St. L 74-78 OT 35%     3 - 13 0 - 5 -12.9 -5.3 -7.6
  Jan 27, 2024 357   Houston Christian W 79-75 71%     4 - 13 1 - 5 -14.6 -5.7 -9.0
  Jan 31, 2024 332   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 66-71 34%     4 - 14 1 - 6 -13.5 -5.7 -8.0
  Feb 03, 2024 349   @ New Orleans W 82-80 43%     5 - 14 2 - 6 -9.1 -3.5 -5.7
  Feb 05, 2024 289   @ SE Louisiana L 64-76 21%     5 - 15 2 - 7 -16.1 -6.2 -10.8
  Feb 10, 2024 357   @ Houston Christian L 83-86 51%     5 - 16 2 - 8 -16.1 -1.6 -14.4
  Feb 12, 2024 240   Lamar W 76-67 28%     6 - 16 3 - 8 +2.4 -5.4 +7.2
  Feb 17, 2024 321   Northwestern St. L 61-81 48%     6 - 17 3 - 9 -32.3 -14.8 -18.3
  Feb 19, 2024 332   Texas A&M - Commerce L 72-76 OT 54%     6 - 18 3 - 10 -17.9 -15.5 -1.8
  Feb 24, 2024 91   @ McNeese St. L 71-87 3%     6 - 19 3 - 11 -7.1 +2.4 -9.5
  Feb 26, 2024 282   @ Nicholls St. L 82-92 19%     6 - 20 3 - 12 -13.5 +6.4 -19.9
  Mar 02, 2024 349   New Orleans W 82-78 65%    
  Mar 04, 2024 289   SE Louisiana L 69-72 39%    
  Mar 06, 2024 184   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-80 9%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 13.2 2.2 15.4 7th
8th 31.0 14.6 0.3 45.9 8th
9th 17.5 0.3 17.7 9th
10th 20.3 0.6 21.0 10th
Total 20.3 49.1 28.0 2.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 28.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 28.0
4-14 49.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 49.1
3-15 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 0.1% 16.0 0.1
Lose Out 20.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0