Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#185
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#229
Pace68.4#207
Improvement+2.1#51

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#171
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#121
Layup/Dunks-5.1#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#280
Freethrows+2.8#44
Improvement+2.6#20

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#213
First Shot-1.1#211
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#209
Layups/Dunks+3.8#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#331
Freethrows-0.4#210
Improvement-0.5#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 4.9% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 14.7
.500 or above 57.0% 59.6% 31.9%
.500 or above in Conference 69.7% 71.3% 54.6%
Conference Champion 6.9% 7.3% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.9% 5.8%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round4.4% 4.6% 2.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 410 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 113   @ Akron L 54-72 23%     0 - 1 -11.3 -13.3 +1.6
  Nov 19, 2023 181   Utah Valley L 65-67 49%     0 - 2 -2.9 -5.1 +2.3
  Nov 20, 2023 201   Cal St. Fullerton L 67-74 53%     0 - 3 -8.7 +1.9 -11.3
  Nov 22, 2023 134   South Dakota St. L 54-65 49%     0 - 4 -11.9 -15.2 +2.2
  Nov 25, 2023 278   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 90-84 59%     1 - 4 +2.7 +13.4 -10.7
  Dec 01, 2023 132   @ UAB W 85-82 27%     2 - 4 +8.3 +14.1 -5.7
  Dec 09, 2023 339   Northwestern St. W 81-67 91%    
  Dec 13, 2023 138   @ McNeese St. L 68-74 29%    
  Dec 18, 2023 305   @ Lamar W 77-73 63%    
  Dec 23, 2023 77   Mississippi L 66-74 23%    
  Dec 30, 2023 313   @ Georgia Southern W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 04, 2024 204   Georgia St. W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 06, 2024 68   James Madison L 76-82 31%    
  Jan 11, 2024 286   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 13, 2024 189   @ Troy L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 17, 2024 240   Arkansas St. W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 20, 2024 189   Troy W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 24, 2024 300   @ Coastal Carolina W 76-72 62%    
  Jan 27, 2024 196   @ Marshall L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 31, 2024 240   @ Arkansas St. L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 03, 2024 213   @ Texas St. L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 07, 2024 206   Old Dominion W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 15, 2024 286   Louisiana Monroe W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 17, 2024 213   Texas St. W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 22, 2024 231   South Alabama W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 24, 2024 174   Louisiana W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 28, 2024 231   @ South Alabama L 69-70 46%    
  Mar 01, 2024 174   @ Louisiana L 71-75 39%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 6.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.6 3.2 1.4 0.3 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.8 3.4 0.8 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.7 3.5 0.8 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.1 4.2 0.8 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 4.6 1.4 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.2 2.2 0.2 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.6 0.3 6.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.4 1.2 0.1 4.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.3 3.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.3 5.7 8.0 10.3 12.6 12.8 11.8 11.7 8.8 5.9 3.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-2 81.6% 1.3    1.0 0.3
15-3 59.7% 2.3    1.2 0.9 0.2
14-4 28.7% 1.7    0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 9.4% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 3.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 45.9% 31.8% 14.1% 11.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.7%
17-1 0.6% 19.0% 16.8% 2.2% 11.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.6%
16-2 1.5% 20.3% 20.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.2
15-3 3.9% 12.0% 12.0% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.4
14-4 5.9% 12.4% 12.4% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.2
13-5 8.8% 8.1% 8.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.1
12-6 11.7% 5.9% 5.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 11.0
11-7 11.8% 5.6% 5.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 11.1
10-8 12.8% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 12.3
9-9 12.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.3
8-10 10.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.2
7-11 8.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.9
6-12 5.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.6
5-13 3.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 1.8% 1.8
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.8% 4.7% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 95.2 0.0%