Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#282
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#225
Pace66.7#241
Improvement-1.5#257

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#243
First Shot+2.3#115
After Offensive Rebound-4.8#362
Layup/Dunks-2.8#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#36
Freethrows+1.2#85
Improvement+0.4#153

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#285
First Shot+0.9#141
After Offensive Rebounds-4.7#362
Layups/Dunks+1.9#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#263
Freethrows+0.3#170
Improvement-1.9#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.6% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 72.6% 100.0% 70.4%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round1.1% 2.2% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 31 - 52 - 10
Quad 412 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 131   @ Tulane L 81-91 15%     0 - 1 -5.0 +1.6 -5.7
  Nov 10, 2023 80   @ LSU W 68-66 8%     1 - 1 +11.8 +2.6 +9.3
  Nov 15, 2023 278   Denver L 85-91 48%     1 - 2 -11.8 -3.1 -8.1
  Nov 16, 2023 207   @ South Alabama W 102-97 3OT 27%     2 - 2 +5.1 +2.8 +1.0
  Nov 17, 2023 291   SIU Edwardsville L 51-60 53%     2 - 3 -15.9 -14.7 -3.1
  Nov 24, 2023 28   @ Mississippi St. L 61-74 3%     2 - 4 +2.4 -3.9 +6.5
  Nov 28, 2023 15   @ Baylor L 70-108 2%     2 - 5 -20.0 +0.4 -19.1
  Dec 02, 2023 92   @ Louisiana Tech L 55-68 9%     2 - 6 -4.1 -8.5 +3.5
  Dec 19, 2023 42   @ Maryland L 67-73 4%     2 - 7 +7.6 +8.2 -0.8
  Dec 22, 2023 154   @ Towson L 55-65 18%     2 - 8 -6.6 -6.0 -2.2
  Jan 06, 2024 357   @ Houston Christian W 98-94 OT 75%     3 - 8 1 - 0 -9.1 +0.3 -10.2
  Jan 09, 2024 289   SE Louisiana W 66-61 63%     4 - 8 2 - 0 -4.6 -4.0 -0.1
  Jan 13, 2024 240   Lamar L 76-78 OT 52%     4 - 9 2 - 1 -8.6 -3.8 -4.7
  Jan 15, 2024 349   New Orleans W 78-75 83%     5 - 9 3 - 1 -13.5 -2.5 -11.0
  Jan 20, 2024 184   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59-69 23%     5 - 10 3 - 2 -8.6 -11.2 +2.6
  Jan 22, 2024 344   @ Incarnate Word W 78-74 OT 65%     6 - 10 4 - 2 -6.1 -1.9 -4.2
  Jan 27, 2024 332   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 87-84 2OT 59%     7 - 10 5 - 2 -5.5 -0.6 -5.2
  Feb 03, 2024 357   Houston Christian W 83-73 87%     8 - 10 6 - 2 -8.6 +5.2 -13.2
  Feb 05, 2024 321   Northwestern St. W 73-66 72%     9 - 10 7 - 2 -5.3 +10.1 -13.9
  Feb 10, 2024 240   @ Lamar L 56-75 31%     9 - 11 7 - 3 -20.2 -15.5 -5.4
  Feb 12, 2024 184   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-63 41%     10 - 11 8 - 3 +0.0 -1.9 +2.1
  Feb 17, 2024 91   McNeese St. L 47-74 18%     10 - 12 8 - 4 -23.6 -22.3 -2.2
  Feb 19, 2024 349   @ New Orleans W 89-77 68%     11 - 12 9 - 4 +0.9 -3.2 +2.4
  Feb 24, 2024 332   Texas A&M - Commerce W 85-70 77%     12 - 12 10 - 4 +1.1 +10.8 -9.0
  Feb 26, 2024 344   Incarnate Word W 92-82 81%     13 - 12 11 - 4 -5.5 +10.4 -15.9
  Mar 02, 2024 91   @ McNeese St. L 62-77 7%    
  Mar 04, 2024 321   @ Northwestern St. W 72-71 52%    
  Mar 06, 2024 289   @ SE Louisiana L 67-69 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 7.6 2.0 11.5 2nd
3rd 14.9 44.7 16.3 76.0 3rd
4th 11.0 11.0 4th
5th 1.4 1.4 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 27.4 46.7 23.9 2.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
13-5 23.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 23.4
12-6 46.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.1 0.6 46.1
11-7 27.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 27.1
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.1 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 3.2% 15.1 0.3 2.3 0.5
Lose Out 27.4% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0