Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#90
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#161
Pace72.7#95
Improvement-2.0#334

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#79
First Shot+3.0#92
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#155
Layup/Dunks-2.2#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#172
Freethrows+1.2#106
Improvement+2.2#18

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#118
First Shot+1.0#137
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#111
Layups/Dunks-3.0#290
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#40
Freethrows-0.3#216
Improvement-4.2#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 5.4% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.0% 4.1% 1.0%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 11.5
.500 or above 33.1% 34.1% 9.9%
.500 or above in Conference 17.2% 17.6% 6.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.1% 22.6% 36.3%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 0.8%
First Round4.5% 4.7% 1.1%
Second Round1.8% 1.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 95.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 10
Quad 23 - 55 - 15
Quad 32 - 27 - 17
Quad 47 - 014 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 337   Delaware St. W 79-45 96%     1 - 0 +19.4 -4.7 +21.6
  Nov 10, 2023 265   Lehigh W 74-65 90%     2 - 0 +0.4 -8.0 +7.7
  Nov 14, 2023 359   St. Francis (PA) W 83-53 98%     3 - 0 +11.9 +3.2 +9.4
  Nov 17, 2023 209   Morehead St. W 74-51 84%     4 - 0 +17.7 -5.5 +21.4
  Nov 23, 2023 19   Texas A&M L 77-89 21%     4 - 1 +2.0 +13.8 -12.6
  Nov 24, 2023 50   Butler L 78-88 33%     4 - 2 +0.0 +9.3 -9.1
  Nov 26, 2023 82   Virginia Commonwealth L 74-86 47%     4 - 3 -5.7 +3.4 -8.6
  Dec 02, 2023 324   Bucknell W 80-62 96%    
  Dec 06, 2023 59   @ Maryland L 65-71 27%    
  Dec 09, 2023 27   Ohio St. L 72-76 34%    
  Dec 16, 2023 137   Georgia Tech W 77-73 63%    
  Dec 21, 2023 357   Le Moyne W 86-63 98%    
  Dec 29, 2023 250   Rider W 77-64 88%    
  Jan 04, 2024 17   @ Michigan St. L 63-76 12%    
  Jan 07, 2024 55   Michigan L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 10, 2024 62   Northwestern L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 13, 2024 1   @ Purdue L 65-84 5%    
  Jan 16, 2024 35   Wisconsin L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 20, 2024 27   @ Ohio St. L 69-79 18%    
  Jan 27, 2024 128   Minnesota W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 31, 2024 54   @ Rutgers L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 03, 2024 68   @ Indiana L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 07, 2024 37   Iowa L 83-86 39%    
  Feb 11, 2024 62   @ Northwestern L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 14, 2024 17   Michigan St. L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 17, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 72-80 25%    
  Feb 21, 2024 31   Illinois L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 24, 2024 68   Indiana W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 27, 2024 37   @ Iowa L 80-89 21%    
  Mar 02, 2024 128   @ Minnesota L 72-73 49%    
  Mar 10, 2024 59   Maryland L 67-68 48%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.6 0.6 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 3.7 1.2 0.1 6.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.2 2.4 0.2 8.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 4.2 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 4.4 5.0 1.4 0.1 12.0 11th
12th 0.2 1.3 4.5 5.4 2.2 0.1 13.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.1 5.6 2.4 0.4 16.1 13th
14th 0.3 1.5 3.2 4.6 3.5 1.4 0.2 14.8 14th
Total 0.3 1.5 3.6 7.1 9.9 12.5 13.6 13.2 11.8 9.3 7.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 40.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 19.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 9.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.3% 95.6% 5.0% 90.6% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.4%
14-6 0.7% 85.0% 3.3% 81.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 84.5%
13-7 1.5% 62.7% 6.5% 56.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 60.1%
12-8 3.0% 41.1% 3.4% 37.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.7 39.1%
11-9 4.5% 18.0% 2.7% 15.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.7 15.7%
10-10 7.0% 5.1% 1.7% 3.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.6 3.5%
9-11 9.3% 2.2% 1.9% 0.3% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.4%
8-12 11.8% 1.7% 1.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.6
7-13 13.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.0
6-14 13.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.5
5-15 12.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.5
4-16 9.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.9
3-17 7.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.0
2-18 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
1-19 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.5
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 5.3% 1.3% 4.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 94.7 4.0%