Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#270
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#279
Pace74.8#49
Improvement+1.0#113

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#275
First Shot-3.5#276
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#187
Layup/Dunks-2.2#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#90
Freethrows-5.5#358
Improvement+0.3#148

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#238
First Shot-2.1#248
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#200
Layups/Dunks+2.0#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#286
Freethrows-0.1#200
Improvement+0.7#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.5% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 16.6% 25.1% 9.4%
.500 or above in Conference 35.5% 41.9% 29.9%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.6% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 14.4% 10.9% 17.4%
First Four1.2% 1.6% 0.9%
First Round1.8% 2.6% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Away) - 46.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 49 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2023 21   Colorado St. L 64-83 8%     0 - 1 -8.8 -9.2 +1.0
  Nov 18, 2023 254   @ New Mexico St. L 71-76 35%     0 - 2 -7.0 -10.9 +4.5
  Nov 21, 2023 338   Chicago St. W 78-77 OT 72%     1 - 2 -10.8 -3.7 -7.2
  Nov 22, 2023 164   Radford L 68-79 29%     1 - 3 -11.0 -4.3 -6.7
  Nov 29, 2023 215   @ San Diego L 72-74 26%     1 - 4 -1.3 -3.6 +2.4
  Dec 02, 2023 272   Cal St. Northridge W 75-71 63%     2 - 4 -5.2 -11.5 +5.7
  Dec 11, 2023 301   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 15, 2023 40   @ Colorado L 65-85 3%    
  Dec 21, 2023 203   @ Air Force L 61-68 25%    
  Dec 30, 2023 241   Northern Arizona W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 03, 2024 266   @ North Dakota L 71-74 37%    
  Jan 06, 2024 260   Denver W 81-79 59%    
  Jan 11, 2024 166   @ Montana L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 13, 2024 227   @ Montana St. L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 18, 2024 269   Sacramento St. W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 20, 2024 161   Portland St. L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 25, 2024 217   @ Eastern Washington L 77-84 28%    
  Jan 27, 2024 335   @ Idaho W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 01, 2024 274   Idaho St. W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 03, 2024 117   Weber St. L 63-69 29%    
  Feb 08, 2024 227   Montana St. W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 10, 2024 166   Montana L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 15, 2024 161   @ Portland St. L 72-81 21%    
  Feb 17, 2024 269   @ Sacramento St. L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 22, 2024 335   Idaho W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 24, 2024 217   Eastern Washington L 80-81 48%    
  Feb 29, 2024 117   @ Weber St. L 60-72 15%    
  Mar 02, 2024 274   @ Idaho St. L 68-71 41%    
  Mar 04, 2024 241   @ Northern Arizona L 69-74 34%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 5.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.9 3.2 0.4 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.4 3.5 0.5 14.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.7 6.2 3.6 0.5 0.0 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.9 4.8 2.5 0.4 14.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 8.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.1 4.5 8.2 9.9 12.6 13.7 12.6 11.3 9.1 6.4 4.3 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 90.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 55.5% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 30.4% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 19.4% 19.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 19.6% 19.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
14-4 1.3% 15.4% 15.4% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.4% 9.6% 9.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.1
12-6 4.3% 7.6% 7.6% 15.6 0.1 0.2 4.0
11-7 6.4% 5.9% 5.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.0
10-8 9.1% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.1 0.4 8.7
9-9 11.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.0
8-10 12.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 12.4
7-11 13.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.5
6-12 12.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.5
5-13 9.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.8
4-14 8.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.2
3-15 4.5% 4.5
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%