Indiana
Big Ten
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#68
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#36
Pace69.2#181
Improvement+3.2#4

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#72
First Shot+7.8#18
After Offensive Rebound-3.9#348
Layup/Dunks+10.2#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#218
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.3#357
Freethrows+7.6#1
Improvement+2.0#21

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#69
First Shot+6.1#26
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#312
Layups/Dunks+8.2#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#345
Freethrows+1.6#85
Improvement+1.2#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 2.7% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 6.1% 8.2% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.5% 35.5% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.6% 33.5% 17.4%
Average Seed 8.5 8.2 9.0
.500 or above 60.8% 71.9% 45.9%
.500 or above in Conference 33.9% 43.9% 20.5%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.4% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 5.8% 18.0%
First Four5.7% 6.3% 4.8%
First Round25.6% 32.2% 16.6%
Second Round12.2% 15.8% 7.4%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 5.0% 2.0%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.8% 0.7%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland (Home) - 57.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 24 - 36 - 13
Quad 35 - 111 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 228   Florida Gulf Coast W 69-63 90%     1 - 0 -0.3 -3.2 +3.5
  Nov 12, 2023 323   Army W 72-64 96%     2 - 0 -4.8 -0.2 -4.2
  Nov 16, 2023 131   Wright St. W 89-80 79%     3 - 0 +8.4 +6.5 +1.3
  Nov 19, 2023 5   Connecticut L 57-77 16%     3 - 1 -1.2 -4.6 +2.4
  Nov 20, 2023 155   Louisville W 74-66 76%     4 - 1 +8.5 -3.1 +11.3
  Nov 26, 2023 138   Harvard W 89-76 73%     5 - 1 +14.7 +14.9 -0.6
  Dec 01, 2023 59   Maryland W 67-65 57%    
  Dec 05, 2023 55   @ Michigan L 71-75 34%    
  Dec 09, 2023 21   Auburn L 70-76 29%    
  Dec 16, 2023 4   Kansas L 70-78 23%    
  Dec 19, 2023 209   Morehead St. W 75-62 89%    
  Dec 21, 2023 242   North Alabama W 81-66 92%    
  Dec 29, 2023 224   Kennesaw St. W 88-74 90%    
  Jan 03, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 06, 2024 27   Ohio St. L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 09, 2024 54   @ Rutgers L 63-68 34%    
  Jan 12, 2024 128   Minnesota W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 16, 2024 1   Purdue L 67-77 19%    
  Jan 19, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 27, 2024 31   @ Illinois L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 30, 2024 37   Iowa L 81-82 48%    
  Feb 03, 2024 90   Penn St. W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 06, 2024 27   @ Ohio St. L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 10, 2024 1   @ Purdue L 64-80 8%    
  Feb 18, 2024 62   Northwestern W 68-66 59%    
  Feb 21, 2024 52   Nebraska W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 24, 2024 90   @ Penn St. L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 27, 2024 35   Wisconsin L 68-69 46%    
  Mar 03, 2024 59   @ Maryland L 64-68 36%    
  Mar 06, 2024 128   @ Minnesota W 71-69 58%    
  Mar 10, 2024 17   Michigan St. L 65-69 36%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 4.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.1 1.1 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 4.9 2.1 0.2 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.7 3.1 0.4 9.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 4.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 10.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.6 1.3 0.1 10.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.2 1.7 0.1 9.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.2 7.9 10.4 12.5 12.7 12.5 10.9 8.3 6.0 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 76.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 44.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.3% 99.5% 9.1% 90.4% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 2.4% 98.7% 8.8% 89.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6%
13-7 4.1% 96.8% 5.0% 91.8% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.6%
12-8 6.0% 88.0% 4.9% 83.1% 8.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.7 87.4%
11-9 8.3% 71.9% 3.8% 68.1% 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.0 2.3 70.8%
10-10 10.9% 48.7% 2.6% 46.1% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.7 0.3 5.6 47.4%
9-11 12.5% 18.3% 3.0% 15.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.2 15.7%
8-12 12.7% 5.0% 2.0% 3.0% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.1 3.0%
7-13 12.5% 2.0% 1.7% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.2 0.2%
6-14 10.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.3
5-15 7.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.9
4-16 5.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.1
3-17 3.0% 3.0
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 28.5% 2.6% 25.9% 8.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.4 3.8 4.3 5.0 4.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 71.5 26.6%