Kansas
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.9#17
Expected Predictive Rating+18.0#19
Pace67.8#225
Improvement+1.3#93

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#55
First Shot+5.8#41
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#136
Layup/Dunks+5.9#24
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#217
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement-1.2#280

Defense
Total Defense+10.3#8
First Shot+8.0#12
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#41
Layups/Dunks+1.6#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#69
Freethrows+3.0#29
Improvement+2.5#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.2% 4.3% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 14.1% 14.5% 6.4%
Top 4 Seed 48.4% 49.1% 32.5%
Top 6 Seed 76.2% 76.9% 60.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.2% 95.6% 87.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.9% 95.3% 86.5%
Average Seed 4.8 4.8 5.6
.500 or above 98.4% 98.6% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 83.7% 84.0% 75.4%
Conference Champion 6.6% 6.8% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four2.8% 2.7% 5.3%
First Round94.1% 94.5% 84.7%
Second Round76.7% 77.2% 64.3%
Sweet Sixteen42.0% 42.5% 29.2%
Elite Eight17.8% 18.0% 12.1%
Final Four7.4% 7.5% 4.4%
Championship Game3.1% 3.1% 1.3%
National Champion1.2% 1.2% 0.6%

Next Game: Towson (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 10
Quad 26 - 115 - 11
Quad 34 - 019 - 11
Quad 43 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 276 Green Bay W 94-51 98%     1 - 0 +33.9 +23.3 +14.2
  Fri, Nov 7 23 @North Carolina L 74-87 45%     1 - 1 +5.2 +9.6 -4.3
  Tue, Nov 11 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77-46 97%     2 - 1 +24.7 +2.7 +21.5
  Sat, Nov 15 261 Princeton W 76-57 98%     3 - 1 +10.6 -0.2 +10.5
  Tue, Nov 18 2 Duke L 66-78 29%     3 - 2 +10.6 +8.9 +1.0
  Mon, Nov 24 55 Notre Dame W 71-61 75%     4 - 2 +19.7 +7.5 +12.8
  Tue, Nov 25 68 Syracuse W 71-60 80%     5 - 2 +19.0 +8.2 +11.6
  Wed, Nov 26 18 Tennessee W 81-76 53%     6 - 2 +21.2 +17.3 +3.9
  Tue, Dec 2 6 Connecticut L 56-61 47%     6 - 3 +12.6 -1.1 +13.1
  Sun, Dec 7 48 Missouri W 80-60 80%     7 - 3 +28.0 +13.6 +15.7
  Sat, Dec 13 29 @North Carolina St. W 77-76 OT 49%     8 - 3 +18.1 +5.7 +12.3
  Tue, Dec 16 139 Towson W 75-57 96%    
  Mon, Dec 22 127 Davidson W 78-60 95%    
  Sat, Jan 3 57 @Central Florida W 78-74 66%    
  Tue, Jan 6 49 TCU W 74-65 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 64 @West Virginia W 69-64 69%    
  Tue, Jan 13 4 Iowa St. L 71-73 42%    
  Fri, Jan 16 32 Baylor W 80-73 73%    
  Tue, Jan 20 62 @Colorado W 77-72 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 67 @Kansas St. W 80-74 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 9 BYU W 72-71 51%    
  Mon, Feb 2 24 @Texas Tech L 71-72 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 120 Utah W 82-65 94%    
  Mon, Feb 9 3 Arizona L 73-76 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 4 @Iowa St. L 68-76 23%    
  Wed, Feb 18 53 @Oklahoma St. W 80-76 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 78 Cincinnati W 75-63 87%    
  Mon, Feb 23 8 Houston L 65-66 50%    
  Sat, Feb 28 3 @Arizona L 70-79 22%    
  Tue, Mar 3 61 @Arizona St. W 76-71 67%    
  Sat, Mar 7 67 Kansas St. W 83-71 85%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.1 1.8 0.2 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.7 2.5 0.2 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.6 3.3 0.3 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 7.1 4.0 0.5 14.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 6.0 4.0 0.5 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.3 3.8 0.7 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 3.6 1.0 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.2 0.1 4.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.6 7.8 11.4 14.1 15.9 14.8 12.3 8.4 4.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 91.9% 1.8    1.2 0.5 0.0
15-3 55.2% 2.4    1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 18.2% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.2 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.9% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 1.7 0.8 0.9 0.2 100.0%
15-3 4.4% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.0 1.2 2.0 1.0 0.1 100.0%
14-4 8.4% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 2.5 1.0 3.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 100.0%
13-5 12.3% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 3.1 0.5 2.4 5.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 100.0%
12-6 14.8% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 3.8 0.2 1.1 4.3 5.6 3.0 0.7 0.1 100.0%
11-7 15.9% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 4.6 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.1 5.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
10-8 14.1% 100.0% 3.1% 96.9% 5.4 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.7 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 11.4% 99.3% 1.8% 97.4% 6.5 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.5 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
8-10 7.8% 94.1% 1.3% 92.8% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.5 94.0%
7-11 4.6% 74.3% 0.4% 74.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.1 1.2 74.2%
6-12 2.5% 35.0% 0.9% 34.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.6 34.3%
5-13 1.0% 7.0% 1.0% 6.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 6.1%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 95.2% 6.8% 88.5% 4.8 4.2 10.0 16.6 17.7 16.1 11.7 6.8 3.9 3.0 2.7 2.4 0.1 0.0 4.8 94.9%