Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.7 #85
Expected Predictive Rating +5.9 #88
Pace 68.9 #178
Improvement -2.8 #305

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #137 C+ C C A+ B
Defense #45 C+ C+ A+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #58 1.29 #56 +5.8 #21
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #300 0.55 #362 -3.7 #344
Three Pointers 42% #163 0.96 #256 -0.9 #212
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #142 +1.2 #140
Freethrows 0.41 #3 75% #89 0.31 #2
Second Chance 27.0% #275 1.15 #56 0.31 #189
Turnovers 16.2% #160
Total Offense +1.0 #137

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #275 1.05 #56 +3.9 #59
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #62 0.72 #113 -1.1 #268
Three Pointers 40% #208 1.11 #297 -1.5 #255
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #135 +1.3 #135
Freethrows 0.29 #158 70% #66 0.20 #125
Second Chance 30.4% #174 0.95 #54 0.29 #101
Turnovers 22.5% #5
Total Defense +5.7 #45

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #46 -1.5% #65
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.1% #174 -1.1% #166
Possession Length 16.7 #112 17.8 #246
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #76 0.13 #51
Improvement -3.1 #340 +0.3 #176

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 11.2% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 3.4% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.2 10.9 11.4
.500 or above 98.9% 99.9% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.1% 94.9% 75.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 2.6% 0.3%
First Round5.6% 9.7% 5.0%
Second Round1.1% 2.2% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 13.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 24 - 35 - 9
Quad 36 - 411 - 13
Quad 49 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 342 Canisius W 88 - 48 97% +21  1 - 0 +25 +20 B- A+ A+ +10 B- D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 258 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77 - 71 91% +4  2 - 0 -2 +3 C+ B- C- -5 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 52 @Cincinnati L 62 - 74 26% -9  2 - 1 +1 -7 F D- A- +10 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 248 Bethune-Cookman W 91 - 82 91% +6  3 - 1 +1 +16 A+ B- F+ -15 C F D+
 Wed, Nov 19 93 @Marquette W 77 - 71 OT 42% +5  4 - 1 +15 -1 A- C F +15 B+ B A+
 Sat, Nov 22 343 NC Central W 74 - 55 97% +19  5 - 1 +4 -2 D- C- A+ +7 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 89 Georgetown W 84 - 79 OT 51% +7  6 - 1 +11 +7 C+ C C +4 D- A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 14 BYU L 79 - 83 13% +0  6 - 2 +15 +9 A+ D+ C- +6 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 130 East Tennessee St. W 88 - 71 77% +10  7 - 2 +16 +10 A+ C+ C- +5 C- C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 22 Virginia L 73 - 86 17% -2  7 - 3 +4 +3 B- F+ B+ +1 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 348 North Florida W 84 - 61 97% +21  8 - 3 +8 -1 B F C +9 A+ D+ A-
 Tue, Dec 16 105 Florida St. W 97 - 69 70% +13  9 - 3 +29 +15 B- C- A+ +12 B A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 94 Liberty L 61 - 64 65% +2  9 - 4 -0 -2 D- D+ C+ +2 C+ A- D
 Wed, Dec 31 195 Fordham W 63 - 56 86% +5  10 - 4 1 - 0 +2 -3 F A+ B- +6 B- B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 280 @Loyola Chicago W 70 - 68 84% -6  11 - 4 2 - 0 -2 -3 F C- B+ +1 D C A-
 Tue, Jan 6 65 George Washington W 79 - 72 54% -1  12 - 4 3 - 0 +13 +7 F+ A+ B +6 C- C A+
 Tue, Jan 13 122 @Duquesne W 71 - 65 55% +5  13 - 4 4 - 0 +11 +7 B- F+ C +5 B+ A+ C
 Fri, Jan 16 280 Loyola Chicago W 78 - 51 93% +6  14 - 4 5 - 0 +17 +1 B- F F+ +17 A+ B A+
 Wed, Jan 21 202 @La Salle L 64 - 67 73% -9  14 - 5 5 - 1 -3 -3 D- B- F+ -0 C C+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 139 @Saint Joseph's L 74 - 81 59% -3  14 - 6 5 - 2 -3 +1 C- B- F -3 C C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 109 Rhode Island L 76 - 81 OT 72% +3  14 - 7 5 - 3 -4 +0 A+ D- F -4 C+ A- C+
 Fri, Jan 30 26 @Saint Louis L 69 - 81 14%
 Tue, Feb 3 141 St. Bonaventure W 76 - 68 78%
 Fri, Feb 6 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 72 - 79 26%
 Sun, Feb 15 136 Davidson W 71 - 63 77%
 Wed, Feb 18 86 @George Mason L 68 - 71 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 122 Duquesne W 79 - 72 75%
 Tue, Feb 24 26 Saint Louis L 72 - 78 30%
 Fri, Feb 27 65 @George Washington L 74 - 79 32%
 Tue, Mar 3 117 @Richmond W 73 - 72 54%
 Fri, Mar 6 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 75 - 76 47%
Totals 19 - 12 10 - 8 +7 +1 C+ C C +6 C+ C+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.9 4.8 1.0 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.2 3.2 8.4 2.7 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 10.5 5.4 0.3 18.7 5th
6th 0.8 8.8 8.1 0.7 0.0 18.4 6th
7th 0.1 3.8 8.6 2.0 0.0 14.4 7th
8th 1.0 6.3 2.7 0.1 10.1 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 2.6 0.2 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.3 2.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.2 1.4 6.4 13.9 23.1 24.0 17.6 9.4 3.3 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 52.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 17.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.7% 44.8% 21.6% 23.1% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 29.5%
13-5 3.3% 20.7% 13.1% 7.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 2.6 8.8%
12-6 9.4% 12.9% 11.0% 1.9% 11.1 0.1 1.0 0.2 8.2 2.1%
11-7 17.6% 7.8% 7.5% 0.4% 11.2 1.1 0.3 16.2 0.4%
10-8 24.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 22.8 0.1%
9-9 23.1% 2.9% 2.9% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 22.4
8-10 13.9% 2.1% 2.1% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 13.6
7-11 6.4% 2.3% 2.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.3
6-12 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 5.3% 0.7% 11.2 94.0 0.8%