Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +7.8 77
Results Rating +10.1 61
Consistency 0.15 149
Pace 67.6 200
Improvement +0.1 185

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 133 C+ C+ C- A+ B+
Defense B+ 34 B- B- A C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 44 B- 62% 91 +4.8 33
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 310 F+ 30% 356 -3.8 343
Three Pointers 42% 149 C 34% 191 +0.6 161
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.2 34 C +0.3 155
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 124
Second Chance C- 27.9% 250 B+ 1.17 24 C+ 0.33 142
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 211
Other Turnovers C- 7.4% 216
Turnovers C- 17.1% 215
Freethrows A+ 0.41 1 B 76% 56 A+ 0.31 1
Total Offense C+ +1.3 133

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B 58% 37 C+ 10.0% 124
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 327 F 10.5% 361
Three Pointers C+ 85% 161 B 0.3% 43
Total B 63% 47 C- 5.9% 227


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 255 B- 54% 71 -2.7 88
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 58 B 35% 62 +0.8 252
Three Pointers 39% 246 C- 35% 234 -0.5 159
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 66 C+ -1.7 107
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 103
Second Chance B- 28.1% 92 B- 0.98 106 B- 0.28 83
Turnovers from Steals A- 12.3% 19
Other Turnovers A 9.2% 10
Turnovers A 21.5% 9
Freethrows C 0.31 193 B- 70% 67 C 0.22 167
Total Defense B+ +6.6 34

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 144 B 14.7% 54
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 71 B- 6.7% 74
Three Pointers A 73% 11 A 2.3% 15
Total B 50% 60 B+ 7.9% 34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 169 17.6 231
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 103 0.13 68
Consistency 0.10 24 0.11 91
Improvement -2.1 291 +2.1 91

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 84 78 73
Results Rating Rank 65 64 50
Conference Record 12 - 6 12 - 6 12 - 6
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37% 100% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3% n/a 3%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 11.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four2% 0% 3%
First Round36% 100% 1%
Second Round6% 17% 0%
Sweet Sixteen1% 3% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 6
Quad 27 - 28 - 8
Quad 37 - 215 - 10
Quad 48 - 123 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 339 Canisius W 88 - 48 97% +21  99% 1 - 0 A+ +24 A+ +17 B A+ A+ A+ +12 B+ D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 186 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77 - 71 87% +4  79% 2 - 0 C +2 B- +4 B- B+ C- C- -2 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 41 @Cincinnati L 62 - 74 21% -9  0% 2 - 1 C+ +4 F+ -9 F D- A- A+ +15 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 248 Bethune-Cookman W 91 - 82 92% +6  78% 3 - 1 C +1 A+ +15 A+ B- F+ F -14 C- F F+
 Wed, Nov 19 76 @Marquette W 77 - 71 OT 38% +5  83% 4 - 1 A- +17 C- -1 A+ C+ F A+ +18 A B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 348 NC Central W 74 - 55 98% +19  88% 5 - 1 C+ +2 D- -7 F+ D+ A+ A +10 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 72 Georgetown W 84 - 79 OT 48% +7  87% 6 - 1 B+ +13 B +7 B- B- C B+ +6 D A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 23 BYU L 79 - 83 20% +0  53% 6 - 2 B+ +13 B- +4 A C- D+ A +9 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 165 East Tennessee St. W 88 - 71 84% +10  79% 7 - 2 B+ +14 B +6 A+ C D+ B+ +7 D+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 14 Virginia L 73 - 86 16% -6  23% 7 - 3 B- +6 C+ +3 B D- A B- +3 F C- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 337 North Florida W 84 - 61 97% +21  90% 8 - 3 B- +8 C- -2 B+ F C- A +10 A+ D A-
 Tue, Dec 16 62 Florida St. W 97 - 69 56% +13  98% 9 - 3 A+ +34 A +13 B- C A A+ +19 A A A+
 Sat, Dec 20 126 Liberty L 61 - 64 79% +2  54% 9 - 4 C- -4 F+ -9 F D+ C+ B +4 C+ A- D-
 Wed, Dec 31 153 Fordham W 63 - 56 83% +5  98% 10 - 4 1 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 F A+ A- A- +8 B- B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 246 @Loyola Chicago W 70 - 68 82% -6  8% 11 - 4 2 - 0 C -0 C- -2 F C- A- B- +2 D C- B+
 Tue, Jan 6 85 George Washington W 79 - 72 65% -1  42% 12 - 4 3 - 0 B +11 B- +4 F+ A+ B A- +7 C- C A+
 Tue, Jan 13 121 @Duquesne W 71 - 65 58% +5  87% 13 - 4 4 - 0 B+ +12 B- +5 B- F+ B+ A- +7 B A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 16 246 Loyola Chicago W 78 - 51 92% +6  66% 14 - 4 5 - 0 A +19 C +2 B F D- A+ +18 A+ B A+
 Wed, Jan 21 216 @La Salle L 64 - 67 78% -9  1% 14 - 5 5 - 1 C- -3 D -5 F+ B- D- B- +2 C- C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 109 @Saint Joseph's L 74 - 81 53% -3  38% 14 - 6 5 - 2 C -0 C +1 C A- F C -0 C C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 136 Rhode Island L 76 - 81 OT 81% +3  62% 14 - 7 5 - 3 D+ -7 C- -2 A+ D- F D+ -4 C A- C+
 Fri, Jan 30 36 @Saint Louis L 71 - 102 20% -18  0% 14 - 8 5 - 4 D- -14 C +1 B+ C F F -14 F F B-
 Tue, Feb 3 130 St. Bonaventure W 72 - 70 80% +3  68% 15 - 8 6 - 4 C +1 C +1 D+ C B- C+ +0 D+ C+ A-
 Fri, Feb 6 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 73 - 99 26% -17  3% 15 - 9 6 - 5 D -11 D- -8 F+ B- D C +0 A- F+ C
 Sun, Feb 15 116 Davidson W 70 - 59 77% +5  85% 16 - 9 7 - 5 B +11 B +7 C A+ F B+ +6 B+ B- C
 Wed, Feb 18 99 @George Mason W 82 - 67 48% +8  99% 17 - 9 8 - 5 A +23 A+ +20 A+ B+ B+ B +5 B A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 21 121 Duquesne W 78 - 66 78% +6  89% 18 - 9 9 - 5 B+ +12 A- +10 D+ A+ A+ B- +3 A F B+
 Tue, Feb 24 36 Saint Louis W 77 - 62 38% +14  95% 19 - 9 10 - 5 A+ +26 B +7 B A B- A+ +19 A+ A+ A
 Fri, Feb 27 85 @George Washington W 68 - 66 42% +4  80% 20 - 9 11 - 5 B+ +12 C- -2 A F F A+ +13 D+ B A+
 Tue, Mar 3 142 @Richmond W 65 - 60 64% +6  94% 21 - 9 12 - 5 B +9 C- -1 A- F F A +11 A+ F F
 Fri, Mar 6 48 Virginia Commonwealth L 62 - 68 47% -2  20% 21 - 10 12 - 6 C+ +3 C- -1 D+ A- B B- +3 D+ A+ D-
 Fri, Mar 13 130 St. Bonaventure W 68 - 63 71% +2  79% 22 - 10 B- +7 D+ -4 D+ F D- A+ +12 B A+ B-
 Sat, Mar 14 36 Saint Louis W 70 - 69 28% -4  21% 23 - 10 A- +15 C+ +3 D+ D+ A A+ +12 A A A+
 Sun, Mar 15 48 Virginia Commonwealth L 72 - 76 36%
Totals 23 - 11 12 - 6 +8 C+ +1 D C B+ B+ +7 C B A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- F+ C C 44% 26% 42% B+ C+ C- B+ C+ C- A+ B A+ B+ B- B C- C+ 36% 25% 39% B- B- B- B- B- A C B- C
1.10 62% 30% 34% 0 +1 1.05 28% 1.2 .33 17% .41 76% .31 0.99 54% 35% 35% -2 -1 0.97 28% 1.0 .28 22% .31 70% .29
Nov
3		 Canisius A+ A+ F F B- 48% 11% 41% A- B B A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ F+ B- B+ 36% 26% 38% C+ B+ F C+ D- A+ B- A+ A+
1.39 95% 20% 17% +5 +2 1.16 35% 1.4 .48 6% .69 68% .47 0.76 27% 45% 31% -11 -1 0.79 33% 0.9 .30 30% .25 45% .11
Nov
8		 Maryland Baltimore Co. B- A+ D+ F+ B 39% 24% 37% D+ B- D A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+ C- B+ C F+ C- 28% 26% 46% B C F D F A+ A D A-
1.17 78% 36% 29% +5 0 1.11 23% 1.7 .38 14% .42 79% .33 1.07 50% 38% 39% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .38 23% .20 80% .16
Nov
11		 Cincinnati F+ C D- F F 53% 5% 42% A+ F F B D- A- A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F D+ 45% 10% 45% F D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A F
0.76 53% 33% 4% -22 +3 0.65 14% 1.2 .16 16% .40 74% .29 0.91 53% 25% 47% +5 +2 1.17 18% 0.7 .12 30% .65 62% .40
Nov
15		 Bethune-Cookman A+ D A+ A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% C+ A+ B+ C- B- F+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ D B- D 36% 34% 30% A+ C- F F F F+ A- A A
1.33 50% 60% 61% +17 +1 1.39 39% 1.1 .43 19% .57 81% .47 1.19 63% 39% 31% +1 -2 1.00 38% 1.3 .50 15% .26 60% .15
Nov
19		 Marquette C- C- A+ A+ A 56% 7% 38% A+ A+ F A+ C+ F A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ A- 33% 18% 49% A+ A C- A+ B+ A+ B F+ C+
0.96 56% 67% 41% +5 +3 1.18 19% 1.6 .31 31% .47 69% .32 0.88 44% 50% 30% -5 0 0.91 32% 0.8 .24 25% .26 75% .20
Nov
22		 NC Central D- B+ C- F F 31% 15% 54% C- F+ D- C+ D+ A+ C+ F D A C+ A+ A A+ 38% 38% 24% A+ A+ C+ F F A+ B- F C
1.12 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 11% .32 58% .19 0.83 53% 12% 27% -14 -2 0.69 26% 1.9 .50 27% .27 85% .23
Nov
27		 Georgetown B F F A+ C+ 33% 16% 51% B+ B- C B B- C A+ A- A+ B+ C- C+ F D- 36% 24% 40% C+ D A A+ A+ B+ C A B-
1.11 41% 25% 42% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 17% .51 78% .40 1.05 60% 38% 41% +5 -1 1.11 26% 0.8 .21 17% .34 67% .22
Nov
28		 BYU B- C+ F A+ A 30% 16% 54% A A D B+ C- D+ C- F F A B- C F C 38% 23% 40% D+ C A+ F A+ A+ C+ F C-
1.06 59% 22% 42% +4 0 1.11 21% 1.3 .26 19% .23 43% .10 1.11 60% 42% 43% +7 0 1.15 17% 1.8 .31 20% .30 83% .25
Dec
2		 East Tennessee St. B A+ A- D A+ 42% 16% 42% C+ A+ B- D C D+ A+ A- A+ B+ C- C- D- D 37% 24% 39% B+ D+ F A C- A+ B- F+ C
1.19 89% 43% 32% +12 +1 1.29 33% 0.9 .29 20% .59 80% .48 0.96 61% 42% 37% +4 -1 1.08 35% 0.9 .32 30% .29 80% .23
Dec
6		 Virginia C+ C+ F B+ B 43% 23% 34% B+ B D F+ D- A A D+ B+ B- D+ F+ F F 38% 19% 43% B F A+ F C- A+ F C F
0.99 54% 23% 37% -4 0 0.95 20% 0.7 .14 12% .34 73% .25 1.17 63% 50% 56% +18 0 1.38 27% 1.7 .45 29% .51 74% .38
Dec
13		 North Florida C- A+ A+ F B 45% 9% 45% B+ B+ C+ F F C- C F F A A A A+ A+ 35% 20% 45% B- A+ F B+ D A- D- A+ C-
1.22 76% 80% 28% +8 +2 1.22 39% 0.8 .31 13% .28 47% .13 0.89 44% 30% 26% -12 0 0.78 34% 1.0 .34 22% .30 69% .20
Dec
16		 Florida St. A A+ F D C+ 40% 13% 48% A- B- F A+ C A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A 35% 19% 46% B+ A C A+ A A+ F B- F
1.24 74% 17% 30% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 15% .71 85% .61 0.88 47% 22% 36% -5 0 0.92 33% 0.8 .26 26% .46 70% .33
Dec
20		 Liberty F+ F B- D F 27% 16% 57% C- F C F+ D+ C+ A- A- A B C- A+ F C+ 55% 12% 33% C+ C+ B+ A+ A- D- A A+ A+
1.02 33% 43% 32% -8 0 0.86 31% 1.1 .34 17% .30 80% .24 1.07 63% 17% 44% +5 +2 1.16 13% 0.8 .10 10% .17 44% .07
Dec
31		 Fordham D+ A+ F F F 46% 27% 27% B- F C- A+ A+ A- A- B+ A- A- F A+ A B- 23% 19% 57% B B- D- A+ B+ A+ A A A
1.01 73% 0% 8% -14 0 0.73 24% 2.4 .58 13% .33 72% .24 0.89 82% 22% 26% -4 -1 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 24% .17 63% .10
Jan
3		 Loyola Chicago C- D F F F 49% 10% 41% A F F+ A+ C- A- A+ A A+ B- B+ F C- D 41% 12% 47% C D F A+ C- B+ A+ A A+
1.04 50% 20% 25% -11 +2 0.84 21% 1.4 .29 9% .41 84% .34 1.01 50% 83% 35% +3 +1 1.10 43% 0.7 .30 22% .10 60% .06
Jan
6		 George Washington B- A+ F F F+ 36% 26% 38% D+ F+ B+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ A- F A D+ F+ 24% 24% 52% A+ C- F A C A+ F A+ D+
1.14 76% 0% 28% -7 -1 0.87 34% 1.4 .47 16% .51 90% .46 1.04 90% 30% 36% +8 -1 1.14 45% 0.9 .42 32% .42 60% .25
Jan
13		 Duquesne B- C- F A+ C+ 45% 15% 40% A- B- F+ F+ F+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A- B- D B B 39% 11% 50% C+ B A A+ A+ B- F C F+
1.10 56% 17% 44% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42 1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31
Jan
16		 Loyola Chicago C C+ F A+ B 37% 18% 45% C+ B F+ F F D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 20% 36% B+ A+ F A+ B A+ C- A+ B-
1.14 58% 22% 43% +4 0 1.10 21% 0.7 .15 16% .49 79% .38 0.75 42% 22% 25% -15 0 0.73 37% 0.6 .23 28% .32 56% .18
Jan
21		 La Salle D A+ C F F 43% 19% 38% C+ F+ B+ D+ B- D- A B A B- A F B C 39% 12% 49% F+ C- B- C- C+ A+ F A+ F
0.99 72% 38% 13% -6 +1 0.90 36% 1.1 .39 20% .35 72% .25 1.04 44% 80% 30% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 23% .57 64% .36
Jan
24		 Saint Joseph's C F C A D 53% 15% 33% A+ C C- A+ A- F B F C C C D B- C 33% 10% 57% C C B D- C+ C- F F+ F
0.99 41% 38% 39% -6 +2 0.93 28% 1.4 .38 20% .25 60% .15 1.08 59% 40% 31% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.1 .31 16% .41 81% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Rhode Island C- A+ D- A+ A+ 44% 18% 38% C+ A+ D D- D- F A+ B+ A+ D+ A+ C- F C- 43% 26% 30% B+ C C+ A+ A- C+ F D- F
1.01 71% 29% 47% +11 +1 1.26 27% 0.9 .23 31% .64 76% .48 1.08 40% 42% 50% 0 0 1.02 30% 0.7 .21 20% .60 78% .47
Jan
30		 Saint Louis C D+ A+ C+ B+ 47% 18% 35% B+ B+ D- A+ C F D+ A+ B- F B F F F 43% 4% 53% C F A- F F B- F A+ D+
0.98 50% 56% 33% -1 +1 1.02 20% 1.2 .23 21% .28 88% .24 1.40 55% 100% 59% +21 +2 1.49 26% 2.2 .57 18% .38 65% .25
Feb
3		 St. Bonaventure C A F D D 40% 16% 44% B- D+ D+ B C B- A+ A+ A+ C+ F F A+ D 32% 30% 38% B+ D+ C- B C+ A- D- F+ F
1.13 71% 0% 32% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 16% .61 85% .52 1.10 87% 50% 22% +6 -2 1.11 37% 0.9 .33 20% .33 82% .28
Feb
6		 Virginia Commonwealth D- F F B- F 56% 13% 31% A F+ C- A B- D A+ F A C A F A A 51% 12% 37% D A- A- F F+ C F F F
0.88 35% 29% 35% -13 +2 0.80 28% 1.2 .33 19% .45 60% .27 1.20 48% 71% 29% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.6 .46 15% .54 82% .44
Feb
15		 Davidson B C F D+ C- 49% 18% 33% A- C A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ B B- C- B 31% 27% 42% B+ B+ A+ F B- C A C+ A-
1.15 58% 29% 31% -3 +1 0.97 52% 1.1 .59 26% .54 88% .47 0.97 53% 38% 35% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.6 .27 16% .22 64% .14
Feb
18		 George Mason A+ A D- A+ A+ 43% 15% 41% A- A+ C- A+ B+ B+ A+ F A B A A F C+ 34% 36% 30% A+ B A+ C A+ D+ D- F F
1.31 70% 29% 53% +15 +1 1.35 25% 1.4 .36 13% .38 62% .24 1.07 50% 29% 50% +1 -2 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 14% .41 82% .34
Feb
21		 Duquesne A- F A+ F+ D 45% 16% 39% B+ D+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ B- B A+ F A- 34% 27% 39% A+ A D- F F B+ F D+ F
1.21 45% 71% 29% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.5 .52 12% .57 75% .43 1.03 53% 8% 41% -6 -1 0.89 36% 1.2 .44 20% .47 75% .35
Feb
24		 Saint Louis B B+ F C+ B- 43% 19% 38% B B F A+ A B- A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 19% 40% A+ A+ A A+ A+ A C+ F C-
1.11 60% 22% 33% -3 +1 0.98 16% 2.4 .38 14% .47 75% .35 0.89 65% 22% 26% -5 0 0.94 24% 0.5 .12 22% .29 81% .24
Feb
27		 George Washington C- D+ F A+ A- 40% 3% 58% A+ A F A+ F F A+ A A+ A+ D- A+ C- D+ 50% 5% 45% D D+ D A+ B A+ F A+ F
1.02 56% 0% 43% +7 +2 1.20 9% 1.5 .13 25% .42 81% .34 0.99 68% 0% 35% +4 +3 1.16 41% 0.9 .35 30% .62 55% .34
Mar
3		 Richmond C- A- B B+ A- 33% 18% 49% B A- D F F F A A+ A+ A A C- A+ A+ 32% 30% 38% C+ A+ D F F F B+ A+ A
1.05 69% 43% 37% +7 0 1.15 25% 0.8 .21 26% .39 83% .33 0.97 50% 40% 16% -12 -2 0.74 28% 1.3 .36 10% .27 67% .18
Mar
6		 Virginia Commonwealth C- A+ B F D 41% 15% 43% B- D+ D+ A+ A- B C+ F D- B- F+ B F+ D- 34% 23% 43% A D+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ D+ A+
1.02 68% 43% 15% -7 +1 0.89 26% 1.4 .38 15% .29 53% .15 1.12 69% 36% 40% +7 -1 1.15 17% 0.8 .14 12% .24 77% .19
Mar
13		 St. Bonaventure D+ F F A+ D- 42% 9% 49% A- D+ B F F D- A+ B- A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A- 59% 18% 23% F B A+ C A+ B- F A+ F
1.03 28% 25% 48% -4 +2 0.98 34% 0.4 .14 20% .53 79% .42 0.96 57% 29% 33% -3 +2 1.00 19% 1.0 .19 18% .52 64% .33
Mar
14		 Saint Louis C+ F A+ C+ D- 50% 4% 46% A+ D+ C F+ D+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ B A+ 38% 4% 57% C+ A A B- A A+ D F F
1.02 35% 50% 33% -12 +3 0.85 26% 0.7 .18 12% .48 83% .40 1.01 61% 0% 33% -1 +2 1.04 23% 1.0 .23 26% .34 88% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 37.3% 35.7% 1.6% 11.1 1.7 29.1 6.5 62.7 2.5%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.3% 35.7% 1.6% 11.1 62.7 2.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 35.7% 100.0% 11.1 4.8 78.3 16.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 64.3% 2.5% 11.3 1.9 0.7