Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.1 #232
Expected Predictive Rating -7.3 #283
Pace 69.0 #174
Improvement -4.7 #343

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #147 C+ C+ C D+ D
Defense #304 D+ C C F+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #295 1.23 #100 -1.2 #227
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #66 0.82 #94 +3.3 #45
Three Pointers 39% #223 1.06 #116 -0.3 #191
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #131 +1.8 #130
Freethrows 0.27 #284 74% #138 0.20 #256
Second Chance 30.8% #168 1.09 #112 0.34 #134
Turnovers 16.4% #177
Total Offense +0.4 #147

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #215 1.18 #212 +0.0 #176
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #317 0.72 #118 +2.1 #38
Three Pointers 47% #41 1.13 #315 -5.4 #349
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #279 -3.3 #281
Freethrows 0.36 #332 76% #344 0.28 #350
Second Chance 31.4% #222 1.04 #180 0.33 #209
Turnovers 16.0% #209
Total Defense -4.5 #304

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #311 1.1% #275
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.7% #83 5.3% #276
Possession Length 17.4 #174 17.3 #168
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #77 0.18 #226
Improvement -3.0 #333 -1.7 #285

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 8.0% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 18.3% 21.2% 5.8%
.500 or above in Conference 53.4% 59.4% 28.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.2% 9.0%
First Four3.3% 3.2% 3.8%
First Round6.3% 6.7% 4.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 80.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 413 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 6 @Illinois L 70 - 113 1% -31  0 - 1 -19 +1 C- D- A+ -18 F+ D- F+
 Tue, Nov 11 245 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 64% -3  0 - 2 -9 +12 C A+ C+ -20 F B+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 254 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 66% +13  1 - 2 +10 +15 B- A+ B+ -5 C+ B- C
 Wed, Nov 19 239 @Samford W 77 - 62 40% +9  2 - 2 +14 +3 B- A F +11 A- C+ B-
 Mon, Nov 24 331 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 82% +0  3 - 2 -9 +9 A A- D+ -18 F D- A
 Tue, Nov 25 230 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 61% -4  4 - 2 +8 -9 D F+ F+ +15 A B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 153 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 45% -0  4 - 3 -5 +5 B- C- C+ -10 F B+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 190 @Florida International L 83 - 89 31% -6  4 - 4 -5 +5 C- C B- -9 C D C+
 Sun, Dec 7 101 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 28% +0  4 - 5 -3 +5 B- C+ D- -8 B+ B C+
 Sun, Dec 14 43 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 5% -5  4 - 6 -1 -3 C- D+ B+ +2 A+ C A
 Sat, Dec 20 49 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 6% -5  4 - 7 -8 +10 A+ D+ F+ -18 F C- C-
 Thu, Jan 1 219 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 36% +3  4 - 8 0 - 1 -2 +17 A+ C B- -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 330 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 63% +8  5 - 8 1 - 1 +9 -4 B- F F +14 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Jan 8 172 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 49% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -15 -1 C C+ D -14 D+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 169 Lipscomb L 77 - 84 48% -1  5 - 10 1 - 3 -11 +2 B C- B -12 D- D+ A-
 Thu, Jan 15 199 Queens L 74 - 85 56% -6  5 - 11 1 - 4 -17 -7 F C+ A -10 B- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 328 West Georgia W 90 - 72 81% +6  6 - 11 2 - 4 +5 +9 B A D- -5 C A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 22 172 @Austin Peay L 62 - 83 27% -12  6 - 12 2 - 5 -19 -5 C- C+ F -15 D- D- F+
 Fri, Jan 23 169 @Lipscomb L 71 - 86 27% -5  6 - 13 2 - 6 -13 +8 C- A+ B -22 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 330 North Alabama W 81 - 72 81%
 Sat, Jan 31 285 @Jacksonville W 72 - 71 51%
 Thu, Feb 5 263 @Eastern Kentucky L 79 - 81 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 303 @Bellarmine W 80 - 79 54%
 Wed, Feb 11 348 North Florida W 92 - 81 85%
 Sat, Feb 14 329 Stetson W 81 - 72 81%
 Thu, Feb 19 285 Jacksonville W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 219 Central Arkansas W 78 - 76 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 348 @North Florida W 89 - 84 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 329 @Stetson W 78 - 75 62%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -4 +0 C+ C+ C -5 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 0.8 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.3 4.9 1.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 14.2 13.1 3.4 0.2 34.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 9.5 7.3 0.9 0.0 18.7 6th
7th 0.1 4.6 7.1 0.8 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.3 1.3 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 3.0 2.5 0.1 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 2.4 0.3 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 7.3 13.9 21.8 23.2 18.4 9.5 2.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.4% 15.9% 15.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0
11-7 9.5% 13.6% 13.6% 15.2 0.1 0.9 0.3 8.2
10-8 18.4% 11.3% 11.3% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.4 16.3
9-9 23.2% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.1 2.0 21.2
8-10 21.8% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1 20.7
7-11 13.9% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 13.4
6-12 7.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 7.0
5-13 2.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 2.6
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 15.7 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.0 1.3 24.0 45.3 28.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%