Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#28
Expected Predictive Rating+18.5#17
Pace69.8#177
Improvement+0.6#139

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#13
First Shot+9.6#10
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#139
Layup/Dunks+1.2#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#104
Freethrows+5.0#5
Improvement+0.2#163

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#65
First Shot+3.8#61
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#156
Layups/Dunks+3.1#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
Freethrows+2.8#37
Improvement+0.4#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.8% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 4.1% 7.7% 2.8%
Top 4 Seed 22.9% 34.0% 18.6%
Top 6 Seed 48.1% 62.9% 42.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.8% 90.5% 77.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.6% 89.8% 75.8%
Average Seed 6.2 5.6 6.5
.500 or above 89.4% 96.0% 86.8%
.500 or above in Conference 66.2% 72.7% 63.6%
Conference Champion 6.3% 8.5% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.1% 2.5%
First Four7.2% 5.2% 8.0%
First Round77.4% 88.0% 73.3%
Second Round54.1% 65.4% 49.7%
Sweet Sixteen23.2% 30.7% 20.3%
Elite Eight8.4% 11.6% 7.2%
Final Four2.9% 4.0% 2.5%
Championship Game1.0% 1.5% 0.8%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Purdue (Neutral) - 27.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 11
Quad 25 - 112 - 13
Quad 32 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 227 Bethune-Cookman W 95-90 OT 97%     1 - 0 -1.9 +7.2 -9.7
  Thu, Nov 6 271 Merrimack W 95-57 97%     2 - 0 +29.2 +22.4 +8.2
  Tue, Nov 11 246 Wofford W 93-62 97%     3 - 0 +23.2 +14.6 +8.1
  Sun, Nov 16 8 Houston L 72-73 30%     3 - 1 +18.9 +13.7 +5.2
  Wed, Nov 19 315 Jackson St. W 112-66 98%     4 - 1 +33.9 +27.9 +2.7
  Mon, Nov 24 66 Oregon W 84-73 72%     5 - 1 +19.3 +14.5 +4.8
  Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72-102 12%     5 - 2 -3.1 +12.4 -15.0
  Wed, Nov 26 16 St. John's W 85-74 39%     6 - 2 +28.3 +24.8 +4.1
  Wed, Dec 3 29 North Carolina St. W 83-73 63%     7 - 2 +21.1 +13.4 +7.6
  Sat, Dec 6 3 @Arizona L 68-97 15%     7 - 3 -3.5 +3.7 -5.5
  Sat, Dec 13 225 Chattanooga W 92-78 94%     8 - 3 +10.3 +15.0 -4.8
  Sat, Dec 20 7 Purdue L 73-79 28%    
  Mon, Dec 29 202 Queens W 93-73 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 19 @Georgia L 83-88 33%    
  Tue, Jan 6 45 Texas A&M W 85-79 71%    
  Sat, Jan 10 21 Arkansas W 81-79 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 48 @Missouri W 81-80 51%    
  Sat, Jan 17 87 South Carolina W 80-69 85%    
  Tue, Jan 20 60 @Mississippi W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 13 @Florida L 76-82 27%    
  Wed, Jan 28 41 Texas W 82-76 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 18 @Tennessee L 73-78 34%    
  Sat, Feb 7 15 Alabama L 88-89 49%    
  Tue, Feb 10 11 Vanderbilt L 82-83 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 21 @Arkansas L 78-82 36%    
  Wed, Feb 18 80 @Mississippi St. W 79-75 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 22 Kentucky W 80-78 57%    
  Tue, Feb 24 44 @Oklahoma W 80-79 50%    
  Sat, Feb 28 60 Mississippi W 79-71 77%    
  Tue, Mar 3 34 LSU W 81-76 66%    
  Sat, Mar 7 15 @Alabama L 85-91 29%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 4.6 1.0 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.9 2.1 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 4.0 3.9 0.4 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 5.2 1.3 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.9 3.2 0.2 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.1 0.7 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.9 0.1 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.7 6.3 8.8 12.4 14.6 13.9 13.0 10.4 7.3 4.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.7% 0.8    0.6 0.1
15-3 79.2% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.1
14-4 52.8% 2.2    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 19.1% 1.4    0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.0 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.9% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 2.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.1% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 3.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.3% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 3.7 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.4% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 4.4 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.4 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.0% 99.9% 6.3% 93.5% 5.2 0.1 0.8 2.6 4.2 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 13.9% 99.5% 4.0% 95.5% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 4.2 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
9-9 14.6% 97.3% 2.6% 94.7% 7.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.1 2.8 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 97.2%
8-10 12.4% 84.6% 1.5% 83.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.9 3.0 0.1 1.9 84.4%
7-11 8.8% 44.8% 0.9% 43.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.1 0.3 4.9 44.3%
6-12 6.3% 10.2% 0.4% 9.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.6 9.8%
5-13 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.6%
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 80.8% 5.5% 75.2% 6.2 0.9 3.3 7.8 11.0 13.0 12.2 9.1 6.2 5.6 5.3 6.1 0.5 0.0 19.2 79.6%