Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #184
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 #214
Pace 63.1 #323
Improvement +5.7 #12

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #220 C C- C B- A-
Defense #161 C C+ C D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #5 1.04 #313 +3.3 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #341 0.61 #348 -4.3 #351
Three Pointers 39% #217 1.08 #94 +0.3 #164
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #196 -0.7 #194
Freethrows 0.36 #23 68% #315 0.25 #88
Second Chance 28.6% #239 0.99 #246 0.28 #253
Turnovers 16.9% #209
Total Offense -1.9 #220

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #158 1.08 #86 +0.9 #141
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #297 0.79 #233 +1.3 #96
Three Pointers 44% #93 1.02 #189 -1.6 #258
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #163 +0.6 #163
Freethrows 0.33 #264 78% #361 0.26 #317
Second Chance 28.4% #103 1.04 #169 0.30 #115
Turnovers 15.9% #212
Total Defense +0.1 #161

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.9% #12 1.2% #279
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.0% #261 -2.2% #143
Possession Length 18.6 #295 18.0 #278
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #250 0.15 #109
Improvement +4.6 #10 +1.2 #111

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 6.2% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 35.5% 51.0% 25.6%
.500 or above in Conference 81.7% 92.2% 74.9%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round4.7% 6.1% 3.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Away) - 39.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 86 - 11
Quad 48 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 14 236 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 67 70% +7  1 - 0 -0 +3 C- B+ C -2 A+ F D+
 Wed, Nov 19 192 South Alabama L 65 - 71 62% +6  1 - 1 -11 -5 C D- D+ -6 D+ C+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 156 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 74 32% -7  1 - 2 -8 -12 F D+ F +5 C A+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 137 North Dakota St. L 43 - 56 37% -10  1 - 3 -12 -24 F F F +11 C+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 330 North Alabama L 66 - 73 86% +2  1 - 4 -21 -11 F B C -10 C D+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 270 @Georgia St. L 73 - 77 55% -5  1 - 5 -7 +6 D B A+ -13 C- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 263 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 62 74% -5  1 - 6 -12 -15 F F D+ +3 B+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 130 @East Tennessee St. W 81 - 75 26% +1  2 - 6 +11 +22 A+ B- C -10 F B B-
 Mon, Dec 29 166 Western Kentucky W 78 - 67 57% +12  3 - 6 1 - 0 +7 +6 A+ F+ F +1 B+ B+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 278 @Delaware W 67 - 64 57% +4  4 - 6 2 - 0 -1 +4 D+ C+ F+ -5 D A F
 Sun, Jan 4 94 @Liberty L 69 - 78 16% -4  4 - 7 2 - 1 -0 +5 D- B A- -6 A D- D+
 Wed, Jan 7 190 Florida International W 71 - 64 62% +1  5 - 7 3 - 1 +2 +2 A- B F +1 C A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 153 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 88 31% -5  5 - 8 3 - 2 -3 +7 A+ C- D+ -9 C F D
 Wed, Jan 14 115 Sam Houston St. L 62 - 77 42% -7  5 - 9 3 - 3 -15 -3 D D+ B+ -13 F C- B
 Sat, Jan 17 209 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 60 65% +10  6 - 9 4 - 3 -2 +4 B- C- D -5 C F+ C
 Fri, Jan 23 142 Middle Tennessee W 75 - 58 50% +9  7 - 9 5 - 3 +15 +14 A+ F C+ +4 A C D
 Wed, Jan 28 190 @Florida International W 78 - 74 39% -4  8 - 9 6 - 3 +5 -3 C+ F C +8 C A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 183 @Missouri St. L 65 - 68 39%
 Thu, Feb 5 166 @Western Kentucky L 69 - 73 34%
 Sat, Feb 7 153 Kennesaw St. W 76 - 75 53%
 Wed, Feb 11 266 UTEP W 70 - 63 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 154 New Mexico St. W 70 - 69 54%
 Wed, Feb 18 209 @Louisiana Tech L 62 - 64 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 115 @Sam Houston St. L 68 - 76 23%
 Thu, Feb 26 278 Delaware W 69 - 61 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 94 Liberty L 67 - 71 34%
 Thu, Mar 5 154 @New Mexico St. L 67 - 72 32%
 Sat, Mar 7 266 @UTEP W 67 - 66 54%
Totals 13 - 15 11 - 9 -2 -2 C C- C +0 C C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 6.1 5.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 9.0 6.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 19.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 8.8 6.8 1.1 0.1 18.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 6.2 7.6 1.2 0.0 15.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 6.9 1.9 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.7 5.1 2.5 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 2.9 0.3 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.5 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.2 1.5 4.9 11.7 17.7 21.2 19.2 13.5 7.0 2.4 0.7 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 47.6% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.4% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.7% 21.4% 21.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
15-5 2.4% 15.6% 15.6% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.1
14-6 7.0% 10.4% 10.4% 13.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 6.2
13-7 13.5% 7.6% 7.6% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 12.4
12-8 19.2% 6.1% 6.1% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 18.0
11-9 21.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 20.5
10-10 17.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 17.3
9-11 11.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 11.6
8-12 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.9
7-13 1.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 14.6 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%