Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#254
Expected Predictive Rating-12.8#332
Pace63.1#332
Improvement-2.5#329

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#299
First Shot-7.5#354
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#36
Layup/Dunks-0.4#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#360
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#204
Freethrows-2.3#308
Improvement-0.4#215

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#177
First Shot-3.4#295
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#19
Layups/Dunks-0.4#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#175
Freethrows-3.6#348
Improvement-2.1#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 7.2% 10.1% 2.4%
.500 or above in Conference 20.8% 24.7% 14.4%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 25.9% 22.1% 32.3%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round1.2% 1.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 62.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 103 - 14
Quad 46 - 79 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 14 244 Coastal Carolina W 74-67 60%     1 - 0 -0.7 +2.8 -3.2
  Wed, Nov 19 179 South Alabama L 65-71 47%     1 - 1 -10.3 -5.6 -5.1
  Mon, Nov 24 153 @Arkansas St. L 63-74 21%     1 - 2 -7.6 -11.2 +4.1
  Wed, Nov 26 146 North Dakota St. L 43-56 28%     1 - 3 -12.1 -23.5 +9.7
  Mon, Dec 1 195 North Alabama L 66-73 51%     1 - 4 -12.4 -5.2 -7.6
  Sat, Dec 13 334 @Georgia St. L 73-77 60%     1 - 5 -11.6 +3.2 -15.1
  Wed, Dec 17 260 Eastern Kentucky W 72-69 62%    
  Sat, Dec 20 123 @East Tennessee St. L 63-74 15%    
  Mon, Dec 29 147 Western Kentucky L 70-73 39%    
  Fri, Jan 2 282 @Delaware L 65-67 44%    
  Sun, Jan 4 109 @Liberty L 61-73 13%    
  Wed, Jan 7 187 Florida International L 70-71 48%    
  Sat, Jan 10 162 @Kennesaw St. L 71-79 23%    
  Wed, Jan 14 125 Sam Houston St. L 69-73 34%    
  Sat, Jan 17 178 Louisiana Tech L 62-63 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 157 Middle Tennessee L 67-69 42%    
  Wed, Jan 28 187 @Florida International L 67-73 29%    
  Sat, Jan 31 251 @Missouri St. L 63-66 39%    
  Thu, Feb 5 147 @Western Kentucky L 67-76 21%    
  Sat, Feb 7 162 Kennesaw St. L 74-76 42%    
  Wed, Feb 11 217 UTEP W 64-63 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 133 New Mexico St. L 63-67 37%    
  Wed, Feb 18 178 @Louisiana Tech L 59-66 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 125 @Sam Houston St. L 66-76 18%    
  Thu, Feb 26 282 Delaware W 68-64 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 109 Liberty L 64-70 30%    
  Thu, Mar 5 133 @New Mexico St. L 60-70 19%    
  Sat, Mar 7 217 @UTEP L 61-66 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.2 0.7 0.1 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.2 1.1 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 1.8 0.2 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.4 4.0 0.7 0.0 12.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.8 4.4 1.0 0.0 14.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.8 5.7 4.0 0.9 0.1 16.4 11th
12th 0.3 1.4 3.3 5.0 4.5 2.4 0.6 0.1 17.5 12th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.6 6.6 9.0 11.5 12.7 12.9 11.6 9.7 7.6 5.4 3.5 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 94.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 82.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 52.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 20.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 27.8% 27.8% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 20.0% 20.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.6% 10.9% 10.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.2% 12.1% 12.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
13-7 2.1% 7.3% 7.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
12-8 3.5% 6.8% 6.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.3
11-9 5.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.2
10-10 7.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.4
9-11 9.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.5
8-12 11.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.5
7-13 12.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.8
6-14 12.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.6
5-15 11.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.4
4-16 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
3-17 6.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.6
2-18 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%