Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.5 #66
Expected Predictive Rating +4.3 #99
Pace 78.4 #13
Improvement +1.6 #113

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #28 B+ B+ B B+ B
Defense #174 C+ C+ C- B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #109 1.33 #26 +5.0 #31
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #312 0.78 #139 -2.3 #293
Three Pointers 45% #101 1.09 #80 +3.6 #65
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #34 +6.3 #34
Freethrows 0.34 #65 79% #12 0.27 #28
Second Chance 33.5% #100 1.22 #20 0.41 #37
Turnovers 14.3% #58
Total Offense +8.8 #28

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #241 1.07 #70 +2.9 #85
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #83 0.68 #65 -0.3 #209
Three Pointers 40% #218 1.11 #294 -1.3 #239
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #134 +1.3 #134
Freethrows 0.27 #75 72% #146 0.19 #82
Second Chance 30.2% #164 0.99 #104 0.30 #128
Turnovers 15.3% #246
Total Defense -0.3 #174

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #52 -1.1% #86
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.1% #41 -1.5% #158
Possession Length 14.9 #14 17.8 #253
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #19 0.15 #131
Improvement +2.5 #60 -0.9 #248

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 4.9% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 3.7% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.1 10.6 11.6
.500 or above 18.1% 36.1% 13.2%
.500 or above in Conference 5.2% 13.6% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.0% 10.3% 27.7%
First Four0.9% 2.3% 0.5%
First Round1.7% 3.6% 1.2%
Second Round0.5% 1.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 21.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 10
Quad 23 - 75 - 17
Quad 34 - 210 - 18
Quad 45 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 325 Holy Cross W 89 - 79 97% +10  1 - 0 -3 +1 D+ C+ C+ -5 D+ A- C
 Sat, Nov 8 59 Virginia Tech L 101 - 107 OT 47% -0  1 - 1 +3 +11 B- B B -7 D+ C- D+
 Tue, Nov 11 194 Penn W 106 - 81 89% +10  2 - 1 +20 +18 A+ A+ F+ -1 A C+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 80 @Colorado L 88 - 97 44% -4  2 - 2 +1 +8 C D+ B+ -5 B- F+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 320 New Hampshire W 98 - 66 96% +13  3 - 2 +19 +22 A+ C- B+ -2 B F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 110 Penn St. W 77 - 65 68% +3  4 - 2 +16 +3 F B+ A+ +12 A+ B B-
 Thu, Nov 27 39 Wisconsin L 83 - 104 32% -14  4 - 3 -8 +3 B B C- -8 C C- D
 Fri, Nov 28 5 Florida L 78 - 90 12% -9  4 - 4 +9 +12 A C- B -2 A C F
 Tue, Dec 2 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94 - 64 97% +23  5 - 4 +15 +19 A+ A- C -2 C C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 109 Rhode Island W 90 - 71 77% +5  6 - 4 +20 +19 A+ B+ C- +0 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 9 264 Brown W 86 - 79 94% +6  7 - 4 -2 +6 B C D -9 C C F
 Sat, Dec 13 60 @Butler L 110 - 113 2OT 36% +0  7 - 5 0 - 1 +9 +21 A+ B- A+ -12 C C+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 53 Seton Hall L 67 - 72 55% -3  7 - 6 0 - 2 +2 +3 C+ D- A- -1 C B B+
 Sat, Jan 3 18 @St. John's W 77 - 71 13% -4  8 - 6 1 - 2 +26 +9 D- A+ A +18 A+ C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 10 Connecticut L 98 - 103 OT 21% +5  8 - 7 1 - 3 +12 +20 A+ A+ D+ -7 F+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 83 @Xavier L 84 - 97 45% -11  8 - 8 1 - 4 -3 +5 C C A+ -7 C- B F
 Tue, Jan 13 36 Villanova L 82 - 88 41% -7  8 - 9 1 - 5 +5 +15 A+ A- C+ -10 F+ A C-
 Fri, Jan 16 55 Creighton W 93 - 88 56% +1  9 - 9 2 - 5 +12 +14 C A+ B -2 A+ F+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 93 @Marquette L 104 - 105 OT 49% -3  9 - 10 2 - 6 +8 +21 A+ A+ D+ -13 D- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 89 Georgetown L 78 - 81 69% +9  9 - 11 2 - 7 +0 +13 B C+ A -13 F A- D
 Tue, Jan 27 10 @Connecticut L 81 - 87 9% -4  9 - 12 2 - 8 +17 +19 A+ A- B+ -1 B- B D
 Fri, Jan 30 36 @Villanova L 75 - 83 21%
 Wed, Feb 4 60 Butler W 89 - 87 59%
 Sat, Feb 7 95 DePaul W 84 - 78 71%
 Wed, Feb 11 53 @Seton Hall L 74 - 79 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 18 St. John's L 84 - 90 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 95 @DePaul L 81 - 82 50%
 Tue, Feb 24 83 Xavier W 90 - 85 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 55 @Creighton L 83 - 88 33%
 Wed, Mar 4 93 Marquette W 89 - 83 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 89 @Georgetown L 82 - 83 47%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8 +9 B+ B+ B +0 C+ C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.8 1.8 0.2 6.8 5th
6th 0.7 6.5 4.7 0.5 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 7.3 8.5 1.3 0.0 17.5 7th
8th 0.1 4.1 11.1 2.3 0.0 17.6 8th
9th 0.0 2.1 9.9 4.2 0.1 16.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 7.0 5.4 0.4 14.1 10th
11th 0.2 1.7 5.0 4.5 0.6 12.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.8 6.3 13.7 20.3 23.7 18.4 10.4 4.0 1.1 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 76.9% 3.8% 73.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.0%
11-9 1.1% 41.2% 4.2% 37.0% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 38.6%
10-10 4.0% 15.8% 3.4% 12.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 3.3 12.8%
9-11 10.4% 3.9% 2.2% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 10.0 1.8%
8-12 18.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 18.2 0.0%
7-13 23.7% 0.8% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 23.5
6-14 20.3% 0.4% 0.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 20.2
5-15 13.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.1 0.1 0.0 13.6
4-16 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.3
3-17 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 1.0% 1.2% 11.1 97.8 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%