Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #190
Expected Predictive Rating -3.9 #224
Pace 78.6 #12
Improvement -1.8 #267

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #205 C C+ C C- C+
Defense #184 C D B+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #23 1.10 #249 +2.8 #90
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #193 0.75 #184 -0.3 #188
Three Pointers 35% #312 1.01 #202 -3.5 #299
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #206 -0.9 #204
Freethrows 0.31 #153 66% #337 0.21 #217
Second Chance 32.3% #134 1.07 #139 0.35 #117
Turnovers 16.0% #151
Total Offense -1.4 #205

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #248 1.12 #122 +2.1 #109
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #314 0.82 #287 +1.3 #92
Three Pointers 48% #25 0.99 #149 -3.0 #305
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #169 +0.4 #169
Freethrows 0.30 #193 72% #162 0.22 #189
Second Chance 35.6% #336 1.09 #262 0.39 #330
Turnovers 19.9% #26
Total Defense -0.6 #184

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #107 0.9% #252
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.0% #226 -1.6% #155
Possession Length 14.5 #7 17.7 #244
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #26 0.17 #190
Improvement -2.8 #324 +1.0 #123

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.1% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 10.5% 21.7% 6.2%
.500 or above in Conference 11.3% 24.9% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.7% 4.2% 13.2%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round2.3% 3.1% 1.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 27.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 33 - 84 - 13
Quad 49 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 13 @Nebraska L 66 - 96 2% -21  0 - 1 -8 -1 D+ A- F -4 F+ D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 47 @LSU L 81 - 98 8% -10  0 - 2 -3 +5 C- B B+ -6 B- F B+
 Mon, Nov 24 210 James Madison L 72 - 80 65% +1  0 - 3 -14 -3 D+ D- B- -11 A+ F D+
 Wed, Nov 26 243 Nebraska Omaha W 74 - 61 70% +8  1 - 3 +5 -5 D- C+ A+ +10 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 232 Florida Gulf Coast W 89 - 83 69% +6  2 - 3 -1 +3 D+ B C- -5 B- D+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 285 Jacksonville W 88 - 65 78% +18  3 - 3 +13 +13 A+ C- C +0 B+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 40 @Miami (FL) L 81 - 98 6% -6  3 - 4 -1 +10 B B- B- -9 F+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 20 227 LIU Brooklyn W 86 - 79 68% +2  4 - 4 +0 +3 B+ C D+ -4 C+ D A
 Sun, Dec 28 94 Liberty L 94 - 97 OT 33% +0  4 - 5 0 - 1 -0 +12 C A+ C -12 C F+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 154 New Mexico St. W 89 - 74 53% +11  5 - 5 1 - 1 +12 +12 B A+ D- +0 F A A+
 Sun, Jan 4 266 UTEP W 76 - 64 75% +2  6 - 5 2 - 1 +3 +4 C A+ C -0 C+ C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 184 @Jacksonville St. L 64 - 71 38% -1  6 - 6 2 - 2 -6 -2 C D D -4 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 183 @Missouri St. L 71 - 79 38% -6  6 - 7 2 - 3 -7 -3 F C+ B- -4 C- F A
 Wed, Jan 14 153 @Kennesaw St. L 86 - 89 30% +4  6 - 8 2 - 4 +0 +9 D A+ C+ -9 D C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 115 Sam Houston St. L 63 - 76 41% -7  6 - 9 2 - 5 -13 -14 F D- F +2 C B A
 Thu, Jan 22 266 @UTEP L 77 - 83 53% -5  6 - 10 2 - 6 -9 +2 B F+ C -11 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 154 @New Mexico St. W 81 - 78 31% +4  7 - 10 3 - 6 +6 +2 C F A+ +4 A C+ A
 Wed, Jan 28 184 Jacksonville St. L 74 - 78 61% +4  7 - 11 3 - 7 -9 -9 C D F +1 D+ A- B
 Wed, Feb 4 142 @Middle Tennessee L 72 - 78 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 166 @Western Kentucky L 78 - 82 34%
 Thu, Feb 12 278 Delaware W 77 - 69 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 209 Louisiana Tech W 72 - 68 65%
 Thu, Feb 19 94 @Liberty L 71 - 82 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 183 Missouri St. W 76 - 73 60%
 Thu, Feb 26 115 @Sam Houston St. L 78 - 86 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 209 @Louisiana Tech L 69 - 71 43%
 Thu, Mar 5 142 Middle Tennessee L 75 - 76 49%
 Sat, Mar 7 166 Western Kentucky W 81 - 79 55%
Totals 11 - 17 7 - 13 -2 -1 C C+ C -1 C D B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.2 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 1.0 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.2 3.1 3.2 0.2 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 6.6 1.2 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 8.3 4.5 0.1 14.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 8.7 9.0 0.9 20.2 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 8.5 10.8 2.4 0.0 24.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.7 1.9 0.0 13.2 11th
12th 0.4 1.5 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.3 12th
Total 0.4 2.6 8.4 16.5 23.0 22.2 15.6 8.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.6% 13.2% 13.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 2.7% 8.1% 8.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5
10-10 8.0% 4.9% 4.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 7.6
9-11 15.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 15.0
8-12 22.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.2 0.3 21.7
7-13 23.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 22.6
6-14 16.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 16.2
5-15 8.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.3
4-16 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.2 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%