Kennesaw St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 #153
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #158
Pace 78.0 #17
Improvement +1.1 #132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #133 C C C B- B
Defense #202 C C D+ F+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.10 #254 +1.4 #129
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #320 0.72 #227 -2.8 #313
Three Pointers 43% #139 1.00 #207 +0.9 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #193 -0.6 #193
Freethrows 0.36 #34 70% #256 0.25 #76
Second Chance 34.4% #76 0.95 #308 0.33 #157
Turnovers 16.3% #169
Total Offense +1.2 #133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #33 1.01 #25 -0.1 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #255 0.72 #109 +1.4 #85
Three Pointers 37% #280 1.13 #316 -0.2 #190
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #149 +1.0 #148
Freethrows 0.38 #354 74% #281 0.29 #356
Second Chance 30.8% #190 1.00 #117 0.31 #150
Turnovers 14.9% #279
Total Defense -0.9 #202

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #36 1.5% #311
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.6% #236 -3.3% #119
Possession Length 15.1 #19 17.3 #166
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #143 0.19 #245
Improvement +0.8 #136 +0.3 #177

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 8.7% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 82.4% 90.3% 69.9%
.500 or above in Conference 73.3% 83.8% 56.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.5% 8.7% 5.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 61.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 411 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 315 @Florida A&M W 92 - 72 74% +9  1 - 0 +14 +6 A- F C- +5 A+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 67 South Florida L 89 - 108 31% -9  1 - 1 -14 +7 D+ A+ B- -18 D+ C- D-
 Mon, Nov 24 230 Rice W 89 - 84 OT 66% -1  2 - 1 +1 +1 C- C- C -1 C B- C
 Tue, Nov 25 331 Oral Roberts L 83 - 91 85% +1  2 - 2 -19 -3 D+ D F+ -15 F A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 232 @Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 100 OT 55% +0  3 - 2 +1 +6 B+ D F -6 C B D
 Tue, Dec 2 337 Jackson St. W 88 - 73 91% +9  4 - 2 +1 +5 F A- B+ -5 B+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 270 Georgia St. W 92 - 69 81% +16  5 - 2 +14 +2 A+ C F +8 A+ D D-
 Wed, Dec 17 142 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 36% -7  5 - 3 0 - 1 +3 -2 D- C+ D- +5 A A A-
 Sun, Dec 21 16 Alabama L 81 - 92 6% -18  5 - 4 +7 +5 C+ A+ F +4 A+ B D+
 Fri, Jan 2 94 @Liberty L 73 - 81 22% -8  5 - 5 0 - 2 +1 -1 F C+ C+ +2 C+ B B+
 Sun, Jan 4 278 @Delaware L 52 - 67 65% -5  5 - 6 0 - 3 -19 -17 F D F -3 C- B- D
 Wed, Jan 7 183 Missouri St. W 90 - 80 69% +8  6 - 6 1 - 3 +5 +9 A+ B- F -5 C+ C C
 Sat, Jan 10 184 Jacksonville St. W 88 - 82 69% +5  7 - 6 2 - 3 +1 +11 C A+ B -10 F C C
 Wed, Jan 14 190 Florida International W 89 - 86 70% -4  8 - 6 3 - 3 -2 +10 B D- A+ -12 B+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 166 @Western Kentucky W 81 - 65 42% +5  9 - 6 4 - 3 +18 +8 C+ D- B- +10 B A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 115 @Sam Houston St. L 87 - 93 28% -5  9 - 7 4 - 4 +0 +13 C B A+ -12 F C+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 209 @Louisiana Tech L 76 - 82 51% +2  9 - 8 4 - 5 -6 +11 C C+ B+ -18 F F C-
 Wed, Jan 28 166 Western Kentucky W 72 - 69 65% -0  10 - 8 5 - 5 -1 -2 C C- D+ +2 A+ D+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 154 New Mexico St. W 81 - 78 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 184 @Jacksonville St. L 75 - 76 47%
 Thu, Feb 12 142 Middle Tennessee W 77 - 75 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 115 Sam Houston St. W 83 - 82 50%
 Wed, Feb 18 183 @Missouri St. L 75 - 76 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 209 Louisiana Tech W 74 - 68 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 94 Liberty L 77 - 79 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 278 Delaware W 79 - 69 82%
 Thu, Mar 5 266 @UTEP W 77 - 74 62%
 Sat, Mar 7 154 @New Mexico St. L 78 - 81 39%
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 9 +0 +1 C C C -1 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 4.9 2.9 0.4 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.8 8.0 4.0 0.5 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 8.9 5.9 0.5 17.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 7.0 7.3 1.2 16.0 5th
6th 0.2 3.9 8.9 2.0 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 6.8 3.0 0.1 11.3 7th
8th 0.3 3.4 3.6 0.4 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.5 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.8 7.8 15.3 21.3 21.2 17.1 9.5 3.7 0.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 26.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.6% 21.7% 21.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-6 3.7% 18.8% 18.8% 12.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.0
13-7 9.5% 16.8% 16.8% 13.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 7.9
12-8 17.1% 12.4% 12.4% 13.6 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 15.0
11-9 21.2% 6.4% 6.4% 13.9 0.4 0.8 0.2 19.8
10-10 21.3% 4.7% 4.7% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 20.3
9-11 15.3% 2.4% 2.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.9
8-12 7.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.1 0.0 7.7
7-13 2.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 13.7 92.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 16.0 72.0 12.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%