Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#157
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#120
Pace69.7#178
Improvement-0.1#197

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#163
First Shot-0.8#193
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#117
Layup/Dunks-0.5#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#233
Freethrows-1.8#290
Improvement-0.8#239

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#167
First Shot+1.6#118
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#297
Layups/Dunks-1.5#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#31
Freethrows-1.5#278
Improvement+0.6#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 10.9% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 54.8% 64.6% 39.0%
.500 or above in Conference 68.4% 77.5% 53.9%
Conference Champion 11.1% 14.8% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.6% 5.7%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round9.1% 10.9% 6.4%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 48 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 12 275 @Evansville W 77-72 62%     1 - 0 +2.0 +3.2 -1.3
  Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61-86 1%     1 - 1 +4.9 -2.7 +10.3
  Sun, Nov 23 99 Murray St. W 90-87 32%     2 - 1 +7.9 +10.4 -2.7
  Mon, Nov 24 82 George Washington L 79-92 25%     2 - 2 -5.7 +4.9 -10.4
  Tue, Nov 25 70 McNeese St. L 62-72 23%     2 - 3 -2.1 +8.7 -13.1
  Mon, Dec 1 119 UAB W 76-61 50%     3 - 3 +15.2 +6.7 +9.3
  Sun, Dec 7 85 Belmont L 62-83 37%     3 - 4 -17.4 -10.4 -6.9
  Wed, Dec 17 162 Kennesaw St. W 83-80 62%    
  Mon, Dec 29 8 @Houston L 57-80 2%    
  Fri, Jan 2 178 Louisiana Tech W 69-65 66%    
  Sun, Jan 4 125 Sam Houston St. W 78-77 53%    
  Thu, Jan 8 217 @UTEP W 69-68 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 133 @New Mexico St. L 68-73 33%    
  Wed, Jan 14 178 @Louisiana Tech L 66-68 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 251 Missouri St. W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 254 @Jacksonville St. W 69-67 58%    
  Wed, Jan 28 109 Liberty L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 147 Western Kentucky W 79-77 58%    
  Wed, Feb 4 187 Florida International W 79-74 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 282 @Delaware W 73-69 63%    
  Thu, Feb 12 162 @Kennesaw St. L 80-83 40%    
  Sat, Feb 14 147 @Western Kentucky L 76-80 37%    
  Wed, Feb 18 125 @Sam Houston St. L 75-80 33%    
  Sat, Feb 21 282 Delaware W 76-66 80%    
  Thu, Feb 26 217 UTEP W 72-65 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 133 New Mexico St. W 71-70 55%    
  Thu, Mar 5 187 @Florida International L 76-77 46%    
  Sat, Mar 7 251 @Missouri St. W 70-68 58%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.9 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.4 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 5.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 4.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.9 6.0 7.8 10.0 11.5 12.3 11.8 10.5 8.6 6.2 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.3% 0.9    0.9 0.1
17-3 91.0% 2.0    1.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 72.3% 2.9    2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 46.4% 2.9    1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 19.0% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.7 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 30.6% 30.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 0.9% 35.2% 35.2% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
17-3 2.2% 32.8% 32.8% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.5
16-4 4.0% 25.5% 25.5% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0
15-5 6.2% 21.7% 21.7% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.8
14-6 8.6% 16.4% 16.4% 13.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 7.2
13-7 10.5% 13.9% 13.9% 13.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 9.0
12-8 11.8% 9.9% 9.9% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 10.7
11-9 12.3% 6.8% 6.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 11.5
10-10 11.5% 3.7% 3.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 11.1
9-11 10.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.1 0.1 9.7
8-12 7.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.7
7-13 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.0
6-14 3.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-15 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 13.4 0.1 1.7 3.5 2.5 1.1 0.4 90.8 0.0%