Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.1 #142
Expected Predictive Rating +2.4 #128
Pace 65.4 #272
Improvement -2.2 #287

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #186 B- D C+ F+ D+
Defense #114 B- B- C- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #307 1.21 #119 -1.8 #248
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #119 0.76 #162 +1.2 #114
Three Pointers 43% #146 1.13 #38 +3.4 #72
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #101 +2.7 #102
Freethrows 0.24 #340 67% #332 0.16 #353
Second Chance 29.6% #216 0.87 #356 0.26 #302
Turnovers 15.8% #139
Total Offense -0.8 #186

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #61 1.11 #112 -1.6 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #144 0.65 #30 +0.8 #125
Three Pointers 35% #328 0.93 #74 +4.4 #30
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #66 +3.6 #64
Freethrows 0.31 #208 74% #279 0.23 #234
Second Chance 26.9% #61 1.04 #178 0.28 #89
Turnovers 15.2% #252
Total Defense +1.9 #114

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #279 0.4% #204
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.6% #74 -7.3% #54
Possession Length 18.2 #261 18.0 #280
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #228 0.12 #45
Improvement -3.0 #335 +0.8 #135

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 13.6% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 74.7% 86.4% 65.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 96.6% 85.0%
Conference Champion 3.6% 7.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round11.0% 13.6% 8.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Home) - 45.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 37 - 68 - 11
Quad 48 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 267 @Evansville W 77 - 72 65% +8  1 - 0 +2 +4 B+ F C+ -2 C- B D
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 2% -13  1 - 1 +3 -4 C- C C- +9 A+ A- B
 Sun, Nov 23 103 Murray St. W 90 - 87 36% +3  2 - 1 +8 +10 C+ A- B+ -2 C B F+
 Mon, Nov 24 65 George Washington L 79 - 92 24% -10  2 - 2 -4 +6 B- B+ D+ -10 F A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 25 82 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 28% +3  2 - 3 -3 +6 B+ F A -11 A+ F D
 Mon, Dec 1 118 UAB W 76 - 61 55% +4  3 - 3 +15 +7 C A- B- +8 A+ F+ A
 Sun, Dec 7 78 Belmont L 62 - 83 37% -8  3 - 4 -17 -11 F C- A+ -6 C+ B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 153 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 64% +7  4 - 4 1 - 0 -2 -7 D F F +5 A+ C+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 4 @Houston L 60 - 69 3% -5  4 - 5 +15 +10 A+ D+ F +4 A- A D+
 Fri, Jan 2 209 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 75% +19  5 - 5 2 - 0 +31 +33 A+ F A +6 C+ A- A
 Sun, Jan 4 115 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 53% +5  6 - 5 3 - 0 +1 -3 B F B+ +5 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 266 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 65% +5  6 - 6 3 - 1 -6 +5 D+ F+ C+ -11 C+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 154 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 42% +0  7 - 6 4 - 1 +7 -9 F+ F C+ +17 A A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 209 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 54% +10  7 - 7 4 - 2 -1 -7 D C+ D- +6 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 183 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 71% +0  8 - 7 5 - 2 -2 +8 A+ A+ F -10 C- C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 184 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 75 50% -9  8 - 8 5 - 3 -16 -4 D- D+ B+ -14 F A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 94 Liberty L 69 - 70 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 166 Western Kentucky W 75 - 70 67%
 Wed, Feb 4 190 Florida International W 78 - 72 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 278 @Delaware W 68 - 63 68%
 Thu, Feb 12 153 @Kennesaw St. L 75 - 77 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 166 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 73 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 115 @Sam Houston St. L 71 - 76 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 278 Delaware W 71 - 60 84%
 Thu, Feb 26 266 UTEP W 72 - 62 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 154 New Mexico St. W 73 - 69 64%
 Thu, Mar 5 190 @Florida International W 76 - 75 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 183 @Missouri St. L 67 - 68 50%
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 8 +1 -1 B- D C+ +2 B- B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.3 3.6 1st
2nd 0.2 3.1 9.0 9.9 5.4 1.2 0.1 29.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 10.1 8.0 2.1 0.1 23.3 3rd
4th 1.4 7.6 6.1 1.0 0.0 16.2 4th
5th 0.2 4.2 5.7 1.0 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 4.5 1.2 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.3 2.7 1.4 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.1 11.7 17.7 20.3 18.2 12.8 6.8 2.3 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 79.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1
16-4 46.3% 1.1    0.5 0.6 0.0
15-5 18.6% 1.3    0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.4% 29.3% 29.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-4 2.3% 32.8% 32.8% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 1.5
15-5 6.8% 20.7% 20.7% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 5.4
14-6 12.8% 17.4% 17.4% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 10.6
13-7 18.2% 13.1% 13.1% 13.2 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 15.8
12-8 20.3% 10.5% 10.5% 13.6 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 18.2
11-9 17.7% 7.2% 7.2% 14.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 16.4
10-10 11.7% 4.4% 4.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 11.2
9-11 6.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.1 0.1 6.0
8-12 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.6
7-13 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 13.3 89.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.9 16.7 75.0 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%